Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, June 22, 2002
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, June 20, 2002
Com
06/19/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
*CASH*
JUL 02
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
JUL 04
DEC 04
Total
06/19/02
Soybeans
*CASH*
JUL 02
AUG 02
SEP 02
NOV 02
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
06/19/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
Total
06/19/02
Soybean Meal
*CASH*
JUL 02
AUG 02
SEP 02
OCT 02
DEC 02
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
AUG 03
SEP 03
OCT 03
DEC 03
06/19/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
Total
06/19/02
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
June 14,2002
Cheese Prices Fall
Below Support
• Blocks fall to $1.13 by mid
week.
• Butter falls below sl/pound.
• Butter/powder tilt less likely,
The price of dairy commodities
fell this week because of mount
ing inventories coupled with
weak consumer demand. At the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange,
block cheese prices fell to $1.13
per pound on Wednesday, June
12. That is officially below the
government’s support price of
$1.1314 per pound for 40-pound
cheese blocks.
In addition, the price of Grade
AA butter in Chicago fell to $0.99
per pound the same day, still
above support levels ($0.8548 per
pound for butter).
Weakness in the cash market
High
2136
2112
2184
2276
2352
2384
2406
2370
2396
2462
2504
2420
Open
2102
2170
2264
2336
2380
2394
2364
2390
2454
2494
2410
Volume Open_lnt
66436 436345
High
4870
4924
4890
4782
4720
4750
4770
4774
4802
4670
4750
Open
4924
4890
4770
4704
4734
4760
4770
4800
4670
4750
Volume Open_lnt
60587 189918
Open High
16700
1657
1632
1597
1559
1547
1540
1523
1510
1515
1495
1515
1490
1490
1650
1626
1593
1554
1540
1535
1522
1508
1515
1495
1515
1490
1490
Volume Open„lnt
25319 141915
translated into weakness in the
futures markets as September
Class 111 futures fell to $l2 per
CWT (June 14,2002). Recall that
about two months ago, Septem
ber Class 111 futures were trading
at $13.50 per CWT.
USDA reported this week that
both butter and cheese markets
are weak. Current butter produc
tion is surpassing demand, and
inventories are increasing. De
mand for cream for ice cream
production is helping, but not
enough to prevent inventories
from building. The same is also
true for the cheese market. Cur
rent offerings of cheese exceed
orders, and inventories are build
ing.
The market for skim milk
powder, or nonfat dry milk, con
tinues to remain at the support
price of $0.90 per pound (called
the CCC purchase price). Each
week the USDA purchases sur
Last
2136
2100
2170
2262
2344
2376
2404
2362
2394
2462
2504
2420
Low
2136
2096
2164
2260
2336
2374
2394
2360
2382
2454
2494
2410
Last
4870
4874
4836
4736
4672
4700
4730
4734
4752
4670
4704
Low
4870
4870
4834
4734
4670
4700
4730
4730
4750
4670
4704
Last
16700
1646
1616
1583
1545
1533
1525
1511
1497
1493
1495
1490
1486
1480
Low
16700
1643
1614
1582
1544
1531
1525
1511
1495
1491
1495
1490
1484
1480
plus inventory from the market.
Recently, the Commodity Credit
Corporation, which manages in
ventory for the dairy price sup
port program, purchased 19.4
million pounds of nonfat dry
milk during the week June 10-14.
Of the total, 2 million pounds
originated from the East Coast,
1.7 million pounds from the Mid
west, and 15.7 million pounds
were from the West.
For dairy producers, there may
be just one good piece of news in
all this misery. The lower prices
for domestic butter, combined
with global powder prices of
$0.54 per pound, has made it less
likely that USDA will change the
“butter-powder” tilt this year.
On May 31, 2001 USDA low
ered the CCC purchase price
(support price) for nonfat dry
milk from $1.0032 per pound to
$0.90 per pound. Given a “milk”
support price of $9.90 per CWT
at 3.67 percent butterfat, USDA
had to raise the CCC purchase
Lean Hogs
Date
06/19/02 *CASH* 0 484048404840 +26
06/20/02 Jul 02 5095 5172 5085 5157 +122
06/20/02 Aug 02 4900 496548904917 +BO
06/20/02 Oct 02 4005 405040004005 +2O
06/20/02 Dec 02 3795 382037753780 +8
06/20/02 Feb 03 4135415041204125 +35
06/20/02 Apr 03 4275 427542754275 +25
06/20/02 May 03 4775 477547754775 +25
06/20/02 Jun 03 5200 520051755175 +5
06/20/02 Jul 03 5150 515051505150 +5O
Chge
+2O
+l2
+ 16
+ 20
+2O
+ 20
+2 0
+ 16
+ 14
+ 16
+ 10
+4
Composite Volume Open__lnt
06/19/02 7534 28673
Live Cattle
Date
06/19/02 *CASH* 0 640064006400
06/20/02 Jun 02 6405 642063756407
06/20/02 Aug 02 6385 640063326372
06/20/02 Oct 02 6545 6565 6512 6547
06/20/02 Dec 02 6675 670566706690
06/20/02 Feb 03 6820 684568106840
06/20/02 Apr 03 6930 696569056960
06/20/02 Jun 03 6550 656265506562
Chge
Composite Volume Open_lnt
06/19/02 6985 86979
Pork Bellies Previous Previous
Date Open High Low Last Chge P Volume Qpen Jnt
0 0
530 1737
247 1026
11 107
1 3
0 3
06/19/02 *C ASH* 0 670067006700 +4OO
06/20/02 Jul 02 6400 657264006510 +l9O
06/20/02 Aug 02 6360 6500 6360 6445 +145
06/20/02 Feb 03 6280 629062406255 +23
06/20/02 Mar 03 6050 605060506050 unch
06/20/02 May 03 6000 600059755975 unch
Chge
unch
-6
-8
-7
-5
-4
-6
-8
-7
-9
+2
-1
unch
unch
Composite Volume Open_lnt
06/19/02 789 2876
Oats
06/19/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
06/20/02
Total
06/19/02
_ ... , „ , A _, Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo , ume ope „ |nt
0 0
3425 8883
2844 11257
440 4084
650 3707
172 631
0 85
0 3
3 23
0 0
~ rw l » i Previous Previous
OpenHighLow Last Chge Vo , umeQ|)enJnt
0 0
1490 4303
3775 37524
589 25093
712 14006
224 3997
191 2048
4 8
Open
*CASH*
JUL 02
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
1926
1516
1426
1460
1470
Volume Qpon_lnt
1513 10628
price of butter from $0.6549 per
pound to $0.8548 per pound in
order to maintain the support
value for manufacturing milk.
This essentially describes the but
ter-powder “tilt.”
There has been a lot of gossip
this year that the U.S. secretary
of agriculture is on the verge of
announcing a butter-powder tilt
that would lower the support
price of nonfat dry milk from the
current level of $0.90 per pound.
The idea is that this would lower
the cost of operating the dairy
price support program by lower
ing purchases of surplus powder.
USDA authority for this tilt is
maintained in the new Farm Bill,
as long as it is reported to the
Congress.
The downside of another but
ter-powder tilt, however, is that it
must be combined with an in
crease in the CCC purchase price
of butter. Here is my math, which
is computed using the current
(Turn to Page A2l)
High
2256
1930
1520
1440
1460
1470
Low
2256
1850
1472
1414
1460
1470
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.37 bu., 4.24 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 2.64 bu., 4.41 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 1.64 bu., 3.50 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 —1.93 bu., 6.01 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 4.81 bu., 8.03 cwt.
Ear Corn 66.78 ton, 3.34 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 120.00 ton, 6.0 cwt.
Mixed Hay 113.75 ton, 5.69 cwt.
Timothy Hay —lOO.OO ton, 5.0 cwt.
Chge
+44
-30
unch
unch
+2O
+ 10
Last
2256
1852
1486
1414
1460
1470