Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, June 1,2002
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG.
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, May 30, 2002
Com
05/29/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
*CASH*
JUL 02
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
DEC 03
MAR 04
JUL 04
DEC 04
Total
05/29/02
Soybeans
05/29/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
*CASH*
JUL 02
AUG 02
SEP 02
NOV 02
JAN 03
MAR 03
MAY 03
JUL 03
SEP 03
NOV 03
Total
05/29/02
Soybean Meal
05/29/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
*CASH*
JUL 02
AUG 02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
Total
05/29/02
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
May 24,2002
Dairy Markets Weakening
• April milk up 2.9 percent.
• Dairy commodity inventory
growing.
• Cool spring dampening ice
cream demand.
• Fall futures prices down $1
per CWT.
Unlike last spring, there’s
plenty of milk to go around. In
fact, there are enough milk
trucks running down the inter
state that butter prices are hitting
new spring lows.
The market is experiencing a
classic spring flush. The bigger
questions are, will the milk sup
ply begin to slow down with the
summer heat, and will consumer
demand be strong enough to
push up fall milk prices?
High
2144
2130
2196
2296
2372
2404
2434
2384
2420
2482
2526
2434
Open
2114
2180
2282
2356
2390
2414
2380
2406
2462
2526
2420
Volume Qpen_lnt
72344 423103
High
4910
5032
4970
4870
4800
4834
4840
4840
4860
4790
4830
Open
4960
4900
4796
4724
4764
4810
4780
4840
4790
4790
Volume Open_lnt
59525 168894
Open High Low Last
16700 16700 16700
1680 1645 1671
1647 1611 1636
1648
1615
1583
1550
1533
1528
1513
1490
1500
1510
1510
1505
1500
Volume Open_lnt
31065 137672
Let’s begin with the April milk
production report.
April milk production for 20
select states last year fell 2 per
cent relative to the year before.
The spring flush last year just did
not materialize. Thus, an increase
of 2.9 percent this April repre
sents only a slight recovery rela
tive to production in 2000.
The number that caught my
eye was the growth in cow num
bers. The number of milking
cows on farms rose 8,000 head
from March to April of this year.
That is not a lot of cows and may
just reflect a boost in spring calv
ing. The concern, however, is that
this trend will continue through
the summer. That would mean
farmers are expanding despite
paying relatively high prices for
dairy replacements.
Dairy commodity inventories
LOW
2144
2092
2162
2260
2336
2374
2402
2374
2394
2460
2514
2420
Low
4910
4942
4892
4790
4720
4764
4794
4780
4840
4790
4784
1580
1550
1530
1524
1512
1490
1495
1495
1495
1490
1495
1613
1579
1560
1550
1533
1510
1510
1510
1510
1505
1500
Lean Hogs
Date
05/29/02 *CASH*
05/30/02 Jun 02
05/30/02 Jul 02
05/30/02 Aug 02
05/30/02 Oct 02
05/30/02 Dec 02
05/30/02 Feb 03
05/30/02 Apr 03
05/30/02 May 03
05/30/02 Jun 03
Chge
+ 50
+ 10
+ 12
+ 14
+ 12
+ 12
+ 10
+2
+ 4
+ 6
unch
+ 6
Last
2144
2124
2192
2294
2370
2402
2434
2376
2416
2482
2514
2430
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/29/02 11915 32435
Live Cattle
Date
05/29/02 *CASH*
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
Chge
-15
+ 50
+42
+ 54
+ 62
+ 62
+ 62
+ 60
+ 64
+ 60
+ 66
Last
4910
5012
4952
4852
4792
4822
4836
4840
4852
4790
4830
Composite Volume Openjnt
05/29/02 12636 97940
Pork Bellies
Date
05/29/02 *CASH* 0 5250 5250 5250
05/30/02 Jul 02 5620373055055622
05/30/02 Aug 02 5565 5677 5475 5580
05/30/02 Feb 03 5950 600059506000
05/30/02 Mar 03 5970 597059705970
05/30/02 May 03 6005 6005 6005 6005
Chge
+l5O
+ 18
+ 18
1605
1569
1553
1546
1531
1499
1497
1495
1495
1490
1500
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/29/02 732 3127
Oats
05/29/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
05/30/02
+ 5
+ 14
Total
05/29/02
are also on the rise. There is 1.05
billion pounds of nonfat dry milk
in government warehouses. That
is up 83 percent relative to a year
ago. Anyway you look at it, we’ve
got a powder problem. Clearly
USDA will be forced to lower the
support price of nonfat dry milk
from current levels. There is so
much product in government
warehouses that USDA is offer
ing to sell nonfat dry milk for
manufacture into casein or casei
nates. And the global market has
made export opportunities non
existent. The world price of non
Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Volume Qpenjnt
0 0
4924 8756
4055 11431
2353 5170
197 3145
378 3430
4 490
3 9
0 1
1 3
0 487748774877
4620 470745724615
4695 481546404667
4595471745654592
3845396038103932
3705 379236753717
3985 408039804022
4100 415041004120
4500450045004500
5120 515051175117
✓a ii- u i i Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Volume opcnJnt
0 0
0 640064006400 unch
Jun 02 6210 621060776077
Aug 02 6197 620560806080
Oct 02 6502 650263906395
Dec 02 6652 665765706577
Feb 03 6740 674066506662
Apr 03 6860 687568006820
Jun 03 6610 661066106610
n- ur t i./-u Previous Previous
Open High Lon- Last Chge Volume Qpen
0 0
641 2368
89 682
2 74
0 2
0 1
Open
*CASH*
JUL 02
SEP 02
DEC 02
MAR 03
MAY 03
1730
1364
1352
1400
1400
Volume Qpen_lnt
2215 9288
fat dry milk continues to remain
depressed at $0.57 per pound.
That compares to our domestic
price of $0.89-$0.90 per pound in
Western markets.
Butter inventories at the end of
April were up 76 percent relative
to a year ago. There is a lot of
cream out there and it’s not find
ing its way into ice cream pro
duction yet. A cool spring is hold
ing back consumer demand.
Excess cream and no place to use
it has sent butter prices plunging,
(Turn to Page A 22)
-53
-27
-38
-150
-150
-125
-95
-83
-82
+3O
unch
+25
+25
+4O
unch
+75
High
2324
1850
1450
1374
1400
1400
LOW
2324
1724
1364
1350
1400
1400
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to have
handy reference of commodity input costs
in their feeding operations for DHIA re
cord sheets or to develop livestock feed
cost data, here’s last week’s average costs
of various ingredients as compiled from
regional reports across the state of Penn
sylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.35 bu., 4.20 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 2.56 bu., 4.28 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 1.78 bu., 3.82 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 1.93 bu., 6.03 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 4.41 bu., 7.36 cwt.
Ear Com 66.85 ton, 3.34 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 130.50 ton, 6.53 cwt.
Mixed Hay 129.25 ton, 6.46 cwt.
Timothy Hay 116.75 ton, 5.84 cwt.
24060
31101
26645
11364
3248
1521
5160
4165
1712
1332
241
25
Chge
+ 84
+ 62
+ 66
+ 14
+ 14
unch
Last
2324
1846
1446
1372
1400
1400