Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 26.2002
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, January 24,2002
Corn
|M(onth [
|Opening
208 1/4
02Mar
215 1/2
02May
222 1/4
|°23uTi
02Sep!
228 1/2
|o2Dec T 236
!03Mar! 244 1/4
IOSMay 248 1/2
03JUI 252
03Dec 250 1/2
04Jul
04Dec
Month Opening
Soybeans
Month Opening
02Mar 434 1/2
02May 440 442 1/4 437
023111 444 446 3/4 442
|o2Aug 443 3/4
02Sep
445
448 450 1/2
456 i
02Nov
453
03Jan
03Mar
461 m 461
n| |464 l/2\ +2O
03Jul , |468 1/2nr [468 +2o
1 03 NOV i 469 469 j 469 j 469 j 469 -14
[Month Opening [High jLow .[ ' Closing ' <v[se^tU^|
Soybean Meal
03May
Month Opening [High {Low | C|psijjfg [Net Chg
150.9
02Mar
147.4
OZMay
147.3
OZJuI
147.3
OZAug
148.5 147.0 148.5
146.8 145.6 146.5 b 1147.0 a [146.7 [”
148.2 146.3 148.ij 148.2 [148.1[
148.0 148.0 147.0 147.5 I {147.5|
147.0
OZSep
OZOct 1
145.8
146.5
OZDec
03Jan
148.8
03Mar
149.8
03May
03Jul
Month Opening High Low
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
January 18,2002
Milk Production Growing
• December milk grows 1
percent.
• Butter stocks end year up
118 percent.
• Cheese stocks down 7 per
cent.
.• Forecast for 2002.
The USDA Milk Production
and Cold Storage reports were
released this week. Let’s first
review the production numbers.
December milk production
for 20 major states was 12 billion
pounds, up 1 percent relative to
a year ago. Both production per
cow and cow numbers increased
from November levels. Produc
tion per cow averaged 1,547
pounds, up 28 pounds over a
year ago. This is the third
straight month that production
per cow increased.
Cow numbers were 7.74 mil
lion. in. P^ejnb^.lMOi),
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
:Low _J. ; Closing
210 1/4 208 1/4 209 1/2 ]209 3/4 [209 1/2|
217 1/4 215 1/2j 216 1/2 216 3/4 [216 1/2|
222 [ 223 [223 1/4 [ 223 +lO
1/4j 228 1/2 | 229 [228 3/4(
High
223 1/2
229 1/41228
236 [ 236 3/4 [
1/4! 244 3/4 1
1/ 21 249 1/4 i
2521 252 1/2 |
1/2 251 1/2 I
255 1/2 n!
253 n !
237 1/2
245 1/4 244
249 1/41248
252 1/2
251 1/2 250
{Low I
[High
High
Low
433' 436 1/2
438
3/4 441 1/2 442 1/4
1/4 445 3/4 446 3/4 1
1/41 446
1/2
446 442
447 442
4461 449 1/2 ,450 1/2 450 j
453; 455 ! 456 455 1/2|
153.0 150.0 152.5 ' 153.0 1 152.71 +lB
149.5 149.3 ,149.4
149.5 149.3 1149.41
148.8 | 149.0 f148.9r
149.5 147.2
149.5 147.2
149.0 147.3
149.0 148.2 148.0 bi 148.2 a 148.2
149.8 149.4 149.0 b 149.4 a 149.4
149.0J)|149.4 a 149.2
head more than November 2001.
This was the second month in a
row that cow numbers grew.
Despite common wisdom, the
nation’s dairy herd is expanding
very slowly despite high replace
ment costs. And production per
cow appears to be improving
modestly. This makes the fore
cast of a 1-2 percent growth rate
for the U.S. milk supply in 2002
plausible. USDA is forecasting a
milk production growth rate of
2.4 percent. This appears on the
high side.
USDA’s Cold Storage report
indicates butter stocks ended the
year well above year-ago levels,
but cheese ended with lower
stock levels. Butter stocks on
Dec. 31, 2001 were 52.6 million
pounds, up 118 percent relative
to a year ago. Total stocks of
cheese were 655.7 million, down
7 percent relative to a year ago.
The Chicago Mercantile Ex
change is still predicting rela
tively strong milk prices for
2002. The market is assuming
the milk supply will be much
«*•*••**«*•»*•••••*•*-•*
t Closing i
Closing
447 i
1 148.5 j
I Settle
Closing
[settle S
| /
Net Chg
I ‘'”+e|
236 3/41
244 3/4|
249 1/4)
252 1/2 {
237
251 1/21
255 1/2|
2531
Net chg 1
Settle .
Settle Net Chg
1437 1/41 +36
I'
438 1
441 3/4
446 1/4;
i 4461
1 4471
Bifrii
+ 21
+ 23
+ 16
+ 201
+ 17
+ 17 i
+ 10
+ 14
+ 14 1
I +l2;
[Net Chg
tighter than what is predicted by
USDA. That said, I am gener
ally assuming the futures
market prices are a bit too high.
Oh, don’t worry I have been
known to be wrong before. My
estimates are in the table in
cluded here.
The biggest difference be
tween my forecasts and the Chi
cago Mercantile Exchange
futures markets is that my fore
casts for cheese prices are
weaker during the spring
months. Also, I am assuming
that USD A will lower the CCC
purchase price for nonfat dry
milk from $0.90 per pound to
$O.BO per pound. Therefore 1 am
forecasting the domestic price of
nonfat dry milk will fall to $0.85
per pound. My estimate of the
Class IV price will therefore be
lower than the Class IV futures
estimate.
In comparing my 2002 num
bers to USDA’s, my estimate of
a $12.25 per CWT average for
Class 111 is above USDA’s range
of $11.25-$12.05. However, my
estimate of a Class IV price av
erage of $11.83 is within
USDA’s range of $11.55-$12.45
De/£WTw.._
Lean Hogs
Date
01/24/02 Feb 02 5540 5645 5535 5642 +ll5
01/24/02 Apr 02 5990 6115 59806097 +lO7
01/24/02 May 02 6510 65956497 6587 +77
01/24/02 Jim 02 6570 670065606692 +l2O
01/24/02 Jul 02 6210 630062106292 +67
01/24/02 Aug 02 6035 610060106095 +55
01/24/02 Oct 02 5227 52705227 5265 +5O
01/24/02 Dec 02 5060 508050605065 +l5
01/24/02 Feb 03 5260 526052505260 unch
+6
+ 10
Composite Volume Open_lnt
01/23/02 8035 29171
+ 2
+ 4 ,
+ 2,
+4i
Live Cattle
Date
+el
01/24/02 Feb 02 7142 71907125 7175
01/24/02 Apr 02 7405 74707395 7452
01/24/02 Jun 02 7007 7055 70007045
01/24/02 Aug 02 7005 704770007045
0
-10'
-lOi
1/24/02 Oct 02 7195 72457195 7232
01/24/02 Dec 02 7235 727072257240
01/24/02 Feb 03 7347 735073057340
+ 34
+34 1
+4O!
+ 34,
+2e!
Composite Volume Open_lnt
01/23/02 15036 93764
Pork Bellies
Date
+2O!
01/24/02 Feb 02 7440 763073457610
01/24/02 Mar 02 7450 7635 73707617
01/24/02 May 02 7595 7735 75207720
01/24/02 Jul 02 7650 780076507800
01/24/02 Aug 02 7650 766075857660
+2O
Composite Volume Open_lnt
01/23/02 1025 2439
Oats
NwwSIHSL_ ,
1981 1991195 1/2 198 1/2 |
3/41 184| 180 183 1/2 |
1/2 163 1/2j 161 162 3/4 [
144 1/4 b I
143
sm
143 144 1/4
l/2j 143
§oo3Bs mi
SBBST"
BSBBM
For more information on dairy markets, see my website at
http //dairyoutlook.aers.psu edu/
Forecail ot Blend Prices for Northeast Federal Order I
Month
2001
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual avg
2002
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual avg
Note
Updated
Ken Bailey
Pqnn State University
1/18/02
„ u- u i ¥ * Previous Previous
Open H.gh Lo» Last Chge Vo|ume ope „
~ u- u i i Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume open
6614 31309
5541 31965
1501 15328
1090 10513
162 3497
107 1084
21 67
Open High Low Last Chge , ' re ' iOUS Previous
6 Volume Open_lnt
608 1411
304 586
78 345
35 84
0 13
vs'* ~ ' >■ vt
1 -■» \V * . ' ! '*)- ] i «i *' .
’ - 1
143
141 1/2
142 3/4 b
MggigcKi
Boston Boston Order 1 Lancaster
Class IV Class 111 Class M Class I PPD Blend Blend
$/cwt Vcwt $/cwl $/cwt Vcwt $/cwt S/cwl
+BB
+B7
+65
+33
-30
IiiPIYWChV
1198 1/2! +2O
1183 1/21
j 162 3/41
1 1441/4 r
| _ 143
f 142 3/4
7403
14122
1660
3197
1118
767
573
318
13
+ 20
+ 10
+ 26
+ 14
Unch