Al6-Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, November 10,2001
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, Nov. 8,2001
Com
Soybeans
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Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
November 2,2001
Class 111, IV
Prices Weakening
• October Class 111 is $14.60/
CWT.
• October Class IV is $12.77.
• Cheese prices continue to
weaken.
• DEIP program announced.
As expected, Class 111 and IV
prices announced by USDA
today are below month-ago
levels. The Class 111 price for
Octobei 2001 is $14.60 per
CWT, down from $15.90 per
CWT the month before. The
Class IV price for October 2001
was $12.77 per CWT, down
from $15.59 per CWT the
month before.
The reason for this decline
was a drop in the monthly aver-
GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG,
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
201 3/4
206 3/4
214 1/4
221 3/4
228
234
243
251 1/2
| 256
p"*
442 434 1/2
441
4481
1/2
450
4541
T
458 r
452
glgg
155.9
155.7
158.8
154.8|
152.2
152.2
149.7
149.3
151.3
149.5 149.8
149.4
151.2
149.2
148.8
150.3
age NASS (National Agricul
tural Statistics Service) survey
prices for cheese and butter. The
NASS survey average price for
cheese in October was $1.5591
per pound, down from $1.7085
per pound in September. And
the NASS survey average price
of butter in October was $1.4701
per pound, down from $2.1198
the month before.
Dairy farmers should be pre
pared to see a drop of $1.30-$2
per CWT in the October mail
box milk prices they receive on
November 15. The bigger drop,
however, will be the November
milk check. With Chicago butter
prices trading at about $1.25-
$1.28 per pound and block
cheese prices about $1.20-$1.25
per pound, November Class 111
and IV prices will take a sizeable
drop.
The Chicago Mercantile Ex
change futures market is look-
200 n
203 202 3 / 4
202 1/2 j
207 1/4 j
215
215 1/2
222 3/4
222 1/2
228 3/4 [228 1/2
228 1/2
234 1/4
243 1/2
243 3/4
251 3/4
257 n
256 | 256
435 [434 3/4
434 1/2
437 1/4
438
442 1/2
442
446 1/2
447
451
450
[448 1/2 n
453
452
493 n
158.9
155.9
155.8
152.3
152.4
149.6
149.5
149.7
149.2
ing for a November Class 111 today. The annual allocation of
price of $ll per CWT and a 68,201 metric tons for nonfat
Class IV price of about $12.20 dry milk will be the same as a
per CWT. Dairy farmers will year ago. This will create some
receive their November milk activity by moving nonfat dry
checks about December 15. milk into overseas markets.
After rallying from a low of Western nonfat dry milk prices
$1.16 per pound the week before were $0.92-$0.94 per pound this
to $1.2475 this Monday, Oct. 29, week and some 89,066 pounds
block cheese prices at the Chi- was offered to the CCC under
cago Mercantile Exchange fell the dairy price support program,
back to $1.2050 per pound by It is unclear, however, what
Friday, Nov. 2. USDA reports impact the DEIP program will
that the cheese market is “un- have on domestic prices for
settled to weak.” Demand for nonfat dry milk. Remember,
cheese from the airlines, hotels, nonfat dry milk prices are no
and travel segments is obviously longer supported at $l.Ol per
weak, but that was offset some- pound. Milk protein concentrate
what by holiday buying. (MFC) imports this year were
The butter markets were also down, world prices were high,
volatile, ending the week at and domestic use of nonfat dry
$1.2875 per pound. USDA re- milk is way up.
ports that although churning ac- However, there are reports
tivity is up, demand for butter that world prices for nonfat dry
for holiday promotions appears milk are starting to decline. This
B°°d. could result in higher imports of
Finally, there is some good MFCs in 2002, which could
news. USDA announced that offset the price enhancing
the Dairy Export Incentive Pro- impact of the DEIP program on
gram, or DEIP, is activated domestic prices for nonfat dry
+ 12
200
+ 2
207 1/41 + 2
215 1/4
+ 2
222 1/2
+ 2
Unch
234 1/4
Unch
243 1/2
Unch
251 3/4
257
-10
J.A-.
-42
437 3/4
-34
442 1/4
-26
446 3/4
-22
451 1/4
-22
450
-30
448 1/2
-40
452 1/2
-34
493
-30
-30
-22
Oats
-19
-10
Lean Hogs
Date
Dec 01 5100 514550655132 +52
Feb 02 5365 5425 5350 5415 +45
Apr 02 5510 5585 55105572 +62
May 02 6135 617561356150 +3O
Jun 02 6265 6295 62356250 +25
Jul 02 6070 612060706102 +25
Aug 02 5950 602059506005 +25
Oct 02 5330 534053305340 +2O
Dec 02 5105 511051055105 unch
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
11/08/01
Composite VolumeOpenjnt
11/07/01 7572 30287
Live Cattle
Date
11/08/01 Dec 01 6535 655064526475
11/08/01 Feb 02 6875 689267806815
11/08/01 Apr 02 7092 709269807025
11/08/01 Jun 02 6700 670066156655
11/08/01 Aug 02 6675 66806605 6625
11/08/01 Oct 02 6830 683267656780
11/08/01 Dec 02 6995 699569206950
Composite Volume Open_lnt
11/07/01 18050 110099
Pork Bellies
Date
11/08/01 Feb 02 7170 735271707340 +143
11/08/01 Maro2 7175 730071757275 +145
11/08/01 May 02 7425 743074257425 +l4O
11/08/01 Jul 02 7375 738073757375 +135
11/08/01 Aug 02 7400 740074007400 +l4O
Composite Volume Openjnt
11/07/01 726 2227
~ ... ~ ¥ A Previous Previous
Open High l.ow Last Chge Volume open
4732 18130
2309 7114
473 3280
0 0
38 882
7 419
8 216
5 242
0 4
... . , r .... Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|unle op en , nt
8265 40706
5594 31567
2945 19203
1038 14523
172 3289
33 728
3 83
1., li w ~,, Previous Previous
Open H.gh Low Last Chge Vohlme ope „
692 1860
22 233
9 97
3 31
0 6
milk. The bottom line is, we
could see nonfat dry milk prices
fall to the CCC purchase price
of $0.90 per CWT under this
scenario in 2002.
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to
have handy reference of commodity
input costs in their feeding operations
for DHIA record sheets or to develop
livestock feed cost data, here’s last
week’s average costs of various ingred
ients as compiled from regional reports
across the state of Pennsylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.22 bu., 3.97 cwt.
Wheat, N 0,2 2.58 bu., 4.31 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 —1.52 bu., 3.25 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 1.50 bu,, 4.69 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 3.93 bu., 6.56 cwt.
Ear Corn 60.05 ton, 3.00 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 118.00 ton, 5.9 cwt.
Mixed Hay —108.75 ton, 5.44 cwt.
Timothy Hay —114.25 ton, 5.71 cwt.