Al6-Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, November 3,2001
GRAIN. CATTLE. HOG.
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, Nov. 1,2001
So
Soybean Meal
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
Oct. 26,2001
Dairy Commodity
Markets Unsettled
• Butter prices rise to
$1.2675/pound.
• Blocks rise half a penny.
• Barrels drop 2.5 cents/
pound.
• USDA announces Class 111
and IV formula changes.
The dairy markets at the Chi
cago Mercantile Exchange were
mixed this week. Grade AA
butter prices rose from $1.25 per
pound on Monday, Oct. 22 to
$1.2675 by Friday, October 26.
Block cheese prices rose from
$1.1950 per pound on Monday
to $1.2025 by Friday. But barrel
. prices weakened, dropping from
$1.17 per pound on Monday to
$1.1450 by Friday.
USDA reports that the higher
butter prices this week may indi
cate greater buying interest. In
creased churning activity is
offset with buying interest as the
retail industry stocks up on
butter for the upcoming holiday
season. The same can be said for
the cheese market. The drop in
barrel cheese prices this week,
however, could be due to a
447 1/2 1446 3/4 [ 447
451 1/2 r 451 '451 1/4
455 1/2
short-term change in demand
because of changes in food ser
vice needs.
USDA’s Dairy Market News
had a very interesting quote this
week regarding the market for
nonfat dry milk, “The trade is
concerned about the potential
for changes in the support price
for NDM.” Western prices for
nonfat dry milk remain about
support levels in the range of
$0.93-$0.96 per pound this
week. Despite this lower price
for nonfat dry milk, excess in
ventory continues to move into
the Dairy Price Support pro
gram. In addition, there are
rumors that international prices
for nonfat dry milk may be
weakening. That implies less
demand for U.S. produced
nonfat dry milk in overseas mar
kets.
The Secretary of Agriculture
has the authority to make one
more adjustment in the CCC
purchase prices for dairy prod
ucts (cheese, butter, and nonfat
dry milk) this year. I would in
terpret this to mean that the Sec
retary may decide to reduce the
CCC purchase price for nonfat
dry milk from the current level
of $0.90 per pound to something
lower.
456
Oats
ware Valley College, Doyles
town, (610) 690-2655.
Pesticide Certification Exam,
Luzerne extension, West
UniversityoiDelawareTnenas
of Ag Breakfast, Modem Ma-
What will a drop in the CCC
purchase price for nonfat dry
milk mean to U.S. dairy farm
ers? Well, the USD A will likely
purchase less nonfat dry milk,
we will export more nonfat dry
milk overseas, and MPC imports
will be curtailed. In addition,
Class 111 and IV skim values will
become equalized. That means
Class I, 11, and IV values could
potentially become lower and
more volatile.
Finally, USDA announced a
final recommended decision re
garding the Class 111 and IV for-
Lean Hogs
Date
11/01/01 Dec 01 5155 526051505210
11/01/01 Feb 02 5387 5430 5355 5420
11/01/01 Apr 02 5510 556555025505
11/01/01 May 02 6210 625061806207
11/01/01 Jun 02 6385 639763156330
11/01/01 Jul 02 6177 618561206130
11/01/01 Aug 02 6040 606060406060
11/01/01 Oct 02 5350 536753505350
11/01/01 Dec 02 5200 520051505150
Composite Volume Openjnt
10/31/01 7629 32921
Live Cattle
Date
11/01/01 Dec 01 6792 683567706815
11/01/01 Feb 02 7115 718071157175
11/01/01 Apr 02 7325 736573107362
11/01/01 Jun 02 6860 690768526902
11/01/01 Aug 02 6825 687568256862
11/01/01 Oct 02 6970 702569707005
11/01/01 Dec 02 7140 720071407190
Composite Volume Open Jnt
10/31/01 12211 108757
Pork Bellies
+52
Date
11/01/01 Feb 02 7075 7310 7050 7297 +287
11/01/01 Mar 02 7040 7260 7030 7260 +3OO
11/01/01 May 02 7235 740272007380 +278
11/01/01 Jul 02 7210 731072107310 +3OO
11/01/01 Aug 02 7200 730072007300 +3OO
Composite Volume Openjnt
10/31/01 726 2496
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turity Center, Dover, Del.,
7:15 a.m.
York County cooperative exten
sion meeting and banquet,
York County 4-H Center, 6:15
p.m., (717) 840-7408.
Penn State Dairymen’s Club
annual meeting, Celebration
mulas used in federal orders.
Recall that USDA made an ear
lier recommendation to create
separate Class 111 and IV butter
fat values. That decision was
struck down in court with a fed
eral injunction. In fact, the court
came up with new formula
changes. The current USDA de
cision will result in very little
changes in farm-level prices.
The allowance for dry whey,
used in the Class 111 formula,
will increase slightly from $0.14
per pound to $0,159 per pound.
+45
+25
-20
-40
-75
-60
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Hall, State College, meeting
N^^^^JMW^al^Classi^Sale
uttany
Ag Arena, State College, 11
a.m.
Poultry Management and
Health Seminar, Kreider’s
Restaurant, Manheim, noon.
Nutrient Management Voucher
Training, Maryland exten
sion, Chestertown, Md., 7
a.m.-9 a.m., also Nov. 15, 8
a.m.-lO a.m. and Dec. 3.
4-H Achievement Night, Dau
phin County Agriculture and
Natural Resources Center,
6:30 p.m., (717) 921-0135.
Pa. Farm Bureau Annual Meet-
ing, Hershey Lodge and Con-
vention Center, thru Nov. 14.
Agri-Energy Conference, Penn
Stater Hotel, State College,
Farm Transitional Seminar,
Farm and Home Center, Lan
caster, (preregistration re
quired), 8:30 a.m.-3 p.m.,
(717)721-4416. '
Alfalfa Intensive Training Semi
nar, Boise, Idaho, thru Nov.
15,(814)863-1019.