Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, October 20,2001
GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, Oct. 18, 2001
Corn ,
I Mj|iiOß(enlilg
3/41203 3/4|200 1/2[ 200 1/2 f [2OO 1/2
lllfe[ 2oB 1/21 209 T 205[ 205 205 1/2 j 205 1/41
3/4 213 3/4;209 1/21 209 1/2 [209 1/2|
221 221 1/2;217 3/4| 217 3/4 218 1/4 218|
WWTmS 1/2
F ‘ / W'V i' r ~
i 023i1l 1233 1/2
[o2Se'p!
237
02Dec 245 1/4
|o3Marj
. 03Jul |
253
03Dec 258 1/2
Month [opening
Soybeans
Month Opening
OINov 434
02Jan 440 1/2
02Mar 442 1/2
02May 446
02Jui 452
02Aug 452 1/2
02Sep 448
02NOV 456
03NOV
Month Opening
Soybean Meal
Month Opening
OlDec 159.0
02Jan 157.3
02Mar 154.5
02May 151.7
02Jul 151.5
02Aug 151.2
02Sep 151.0
02Oct 150.0
02Dec 150.5
03]an
150.0
Month Opening
Ken Bailey
Penn State
Oct. 13,2001
Markets Reacting To
More Milk, Less Demand
• CME cheese prices crash
ing.
• CME butter prices stabilize.
• Milk and component levels
rebounding.
• Demand is off in the short
term.
What a difference a month
can make! Block cheese prices
at the Chicago Mercantile Ex
change during the middle of
September were $1.72 per
pound. On Friday, Oct. 12,
blocks closed at $1.27 per
pound. Grade AA Butter prices
during the middle of September
(Continued from Page A 2)
SLAUGHTER CALVES Good and
Choice few 345-405 lbs 83 00-85 00
RETURNED TO FARM Holstein ers few 150 00-165 00.
bulls 90-125 lbs 122 00-153.00; 75-85 lbs SHEEP. Compared to Monday.
70 00- 75 00 Plainer-type bulls 85-125 slaughter lambs sold 35-80 lbs sold
lbs 110 00-144 00, pen 95 lbs 151.00; 75- 10 00-20 00 higher Slaughter lambs over
85 lbs 65 00-70 00. weaker calves 70-110 80 lbs were mostly steady Slaughter
lbs 30 00-70.00 -Holstein heifcfs 90- 115 ' ewes traded fully Steady
225 3/4 225 3/4 |
2291
230 3/4 1 231 1/4 1230 3/4 [” 231
235 1/4 235 1/4 I [235 1/4
243 1/2 244 [243 1/2 |243 3/41
252 1/2 252 1/2 f
233 3/4i
238
3/4j
253!
258
,259 1/2
| High Low
High Low Closing
436 430 1/2 431 1/2 430 1/2 431
440 1/2 434 1/4 435 434 1/4 434 3/4
444 1/2 438 1/2 439 438 1/2 438 3/4*
448 1/2 443 444 443 443 1/2
452 1/4 446 1/21 447 1/4 446 1/2
452 1/2 447, 447
448 1/2 447 1/2|447 1/2 b 448 1/2 ai
457 451 1/2 451 1/2 452 1/4 ;
Low
High
High Low
159.2 157.7 157
157.5 156.2 156
154.5 153.0 153
152.0 150.2 150
151.8 150.1 150
151.3 149.6 149
151.0 149.8 149.8 b 150.0 a 149.9
150.3 148.8 148.8
150.5 148.5 148.5
150.0 150.0 150.0
High Low i
were at $2.18 per pound. On
Oct. 12, Grade AA butter at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
closed at $1.45 per pound.
What’s going on here?
The answer is the dairy indus
try is now fundamentally driven
by supply and demand. And
those conditions can change
dramatically from one week to
the next. So here’s what’s hap
pening this week.
There are reports that the
milk supply is rebounding, par
ticularly in the Northeast and
California. Cow numbers and
replacements are still limited,
but milk per cow is improving.
So also are components levels
(butterfat and protein). Thus,
processors have more compo
nents to work with.
The drop in butter prices was
predictable. Butter stocks are at
lbs 470 00-690 00, 85 lbs 520 00-630 00
Plainer type heifers 80-110 lbs 200.00-
470 00; 70-75 lbs 100 00-210.00; 60-65 lbs
100 00-155 00 Beef-type bulls and heif-
257 1/2 n
258 1259 1/2 {258 3/41
Closing 1
489 1/4 n
Closing
Closing Settle Net Chg
8 158.0 157.9
4 156.2 156.3
0 153.1 153.1
150.2
1 150.3 150.2
1149.6
148.8
148.5
150.0
Settle I Net Chgi
Closing
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Net.Chc*
226
226 j
,252 l/2f
257 1/2
* I Settle s
Settle Net Chg
-30
4471
447 i
4481
452 j
489 1/4
[Wet Chg
I Settle
-12
-11
-11
-8,
-12
very high levels. More cream is
available for churning since ice
cream production is slowing
down. Demand for butter and
butterfat has been weak this
summer because of very high
prices. There is a consequence to
very high wholesale prices for
any dairy product (it may
damage demand).
Butter imports are way up.
And finally, butter buyers are
probably waiting to make their
tall orders until butter prices
stabilize. This could help prices
to rebound a bit in the next few
weeks.
The real worry is the cheese
market. Why is it weakening?
Stocks are fairly tight. Produc
tion is below a year ago. And
demand, up until now, has re
portedly been adequate. It is
very likely that cheese prices
SLAUGHTER LAMBS: Good and
Choice 1-3 35-60 lbs 110.00-150.00; 60-
80 lbs 80 00-110.00. 80-110 lbs 55.00-
65.00 Good 1-2 35-60 lbs 70.00-100 00,
60-80 lbs 60 00-80 00.
SLAUGHTER EWES Good and
Choice Yearlings and 2 year-olds 35 DO
-45 00.
Utility and Good 1-3 20.00-40.00
GOATS (All soldtiy the head) BillfcS:
Lean Hogs
Date
10/18/01 Dec 01 5005 5095 4995 5047
10/18/01 Feb 02 5150 5225 5142 5185
10/18/01 Apr 02 5285 5365 52705325
10/18/01 May 02 6007 6045 5980 5995
10/18/01 Jun 02 6140 618061156122
10/18/01
10/18/01
10/18/01
-22
-24
Composite Volume Open_lnt
10/17/01 5447 30615
-22
-20
-20
Live Cattle
-16
Date
-14
-10
10/18/01 OctOi 6690 6777 6665 6675
10/18/01 Dec 01 6695 6820 6675 6697
10/18/01 Feb 02 7080 72077055 7090
10/18/01 Apr 02 7270 73507247 7287
10/18/01 Jun 02 6870 69356855 6862
10/18/01 Aug 02 6895 6925 6875 6885
10/18/01 Oct 02 6960 6985 6935 6937
-12
Composite Volume Open_lnt
10/17/01 20060 107470
-34
-30
Pork Bellies
-26
Date
-34
-201
10/18/01 Feb 02 7060 723070607100 -7
10/18/01 Mar 02 7070 716070207040 -20
10/18/01 May 02 7320 736073207320 +9O
10/18/01 Jul 02 7215 733072157215 unch
10/18/01 Aug 02 7270 727072707270 unch
-301
-30
Unch
Composite Volume Open_lnt
10/17/01 462 2304
Oats
[Month ibpening, High [ Low !~ Closing } Settle |NetChg|
OlDec 187 3/4 188 l/2|183 1/4 183 3/4 183 3/4|
02Mar 176 176; 172, 172 ; 172
02May> 165 166 l/2j163 1/2|163 1/2 ; 163 1/2
023111 | 150
141
138!
, 02Sepi
oibec _ 138[ _
Month Opening High i Low ■ Closing [ SettlelNetChg
this week are reacting to a
change in demand. USDA re
ports that food service demand
for cheese, particularly from air
lines and restaurants, has been
negatively affected. This will
create a short-term drop in
demand.
Fewer cheese orders will
result in less activity in Chicago
and lower cheese prices. The
real question is whether this
drop in demand will continue
over the next few months.
The good news is travelers are
going back to the airlines and
the holidays are coming up.
Also, the Congress is working
very quickly on an economic
stimulus package. This should
help shore up demand.
The real conclusion from all
of this is that dairy farmers
today are strongly affected by
Large 100.00-125.00. Medium 70.00-
100.00
Mutton
80.00.
Yearlings Choice and Prime 60.00
80.00.
Nannies; Large 60.00-70 00. Medium
40.00-60.00.
Kids. Choice and Prime 40.00-65 00
C6od2troo-40 00.
„ . I J Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vo|ume opell j nt
3513 19340
1274 6023
423 2910
47 843
143 822
17 271
8 147
22 204
Jul 02 5990 600059605965
Aug 02 5850 5875 58405852
Ocl 02 5325 5325 5325 5325
f\ U- U I 1 Previous Previous
Open High Low LnstChge Volu|m opcn |m
1710 3509
10793 45998
4542 28424
2027 13750
902 12772
79 2629
7 388
„ ..... . Previous Previous
Op.nH.gh Low Last Chge Vo|ume optnJn|
446 2045
13 170
2 63
0 21
0 4
150; 151 a {
152;
141;
141
135
Choice and Prime 60.00-
+ 10
+ 13
+35
unch
-13
-10
unch
-7
151
1411
141
135 ai
135 i
changing supply and demand
conditions. That means dairy
farmers should seriously con
sider using the dairy futures
markets to protect at least a part
of their milk supply. Right now
there are still opportunities to
lock in fairly good milk prices
through the spring months.
The Class 111 futures as of
Oct. 12 are still $11,50-$l2 per
CWT January through June
2002. Class IV prices are about a
dollar per CWT higher. If we get
a rebound in the milk supply
and the recession continues,
those prices could further
weaken. Then again, I could be
wrong! One strategy would be to
consider protecting a part of
your January-June rank supply
now say 10-30 percent. If
market conditions improve early
next year, lock in more.
Lancaster County
Weekly Cattle
New Holland, Pa.
Report Supplied Bj USDA
Frida), Oct. 19,2001
CATTLE CALVES
THIS WEEK 2847 1697
LAST WEEK 2285 1485
LAST YEAR 2303 1747
{Turn toftage •
-42
-34
-30
-20
-10
+ 301