Alfl leys star Farming, Saptewbf29,2ool
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG.
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Wednesday, September 26,2001
Final Futures Settlement Report
September 27, 2001 03:10 PM CDT
Soybean Meal
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
Sept. 21,2001
Dairy Markets Steady
Despite Tragedy
• CME cheese holding, butter
weaker.
• August milk production
down 0.8 percent.
• Economy likely in a reces
sion.
The dairy markets are hold
ing steady despite the awful
tragedy that occurred last week.
The economy literally came to a
standstill as the FAA grounded
all flights and consumers stayed
' home glued to the television sets.
As of this week the markets for
dairy commodities appear un
changed despite a bad economic
outlook for much of the rest of
the U.S. economy.
Cheese prices at the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange actually
strengthened a bit this week.
Block prices rose from $1.72 per
pound on Monday, Sept. 17 to
$1.7250 on Friday, Sept. 21.
Barrel cheese prices rose from
$1.68 per pound on Monday to
$1.6825 by Friday. USDA re
ported this week that cheese
demand is moderate, but output
is still limited because of the
short milk supply.
Butter prices actually weak
ened a bit this week at the Chi
cago Mercantile Exchange.
Grade AA butter prices fell from
$2.1675 per pound on Monday
to $2.07 by Friday. Butter prices
are seasonally weakening be
cause of reduced demand for
cream from ice cream proces
sors, increased supplies of cream
from fluid processors, and a re
bound in butterfat production
because ot cooler weather.
The price of Western nonfat
dry milk is still above the CCC
purchase price for nonfortified
nonfat dry milk of $0.90 per
pound. During the week of Sept.
17-21, the price of low/medium
heat Western nonfat dry milk
was $0.93-$0.95 per pound.
Demand for domestic and
export needs must be adequate
since USDA reported there were
no CCC purchases of nonfat dry
Oats
milk under the dairy price sup
port program during the week of
Sept. 17-21.
Part of the reason dairy com
modity and futures markets are
showing little change in prices is
because of the tight outlook for
the milk supply. The USDA’s
August milk production report
showed milk production for 20
major states was 11.8 billion
pounds, down 0.8 percent com
pared to a year ago. Despite a
slight increase in average milk
production per cow (up 4
pounds from a year ago), cow
numbers fell by 7,000 head from
the month before to 7.74 million
head. This was surprising since
cow numbers had leveled out the
past three months and milk
prices have been very high.
The rest of the U.S. economy
is not nearly as robust as the
dairy industry. The Wall Street
Journal reported today that the
Dow Jones Industrial Average, a
broad measure of the stock
market, plunged 13 percent
since the day before the trade
center attacks. That means $1.2
trillion in stock market wealth
has been wiped out. Clearly this
has some implications for the
future of the U.S. economy.
That same article, titled “A New
Lean Hogs
09/25/01' Oct*ol 5785 5825 5760 5787 -20 6364 15682
09/26/(fl , Dec 01- 5355 5450534(15377 *lO 5637 19807
09/26/01 ffeb 02 5395 548? 5380 5425 unch 431 4760
09/26/01 Apr 02 5500 560055005545 unch 259 1989
09/26/01 May 02 6020 6060 6020 6040 +5 38 471
09/26/01 Jun 02 6275 630762656295 +8 92 483
09/26/01 Jul 02 6000 603060006010 +5 48 207
09/26/01 Aug 02 5900 590758755885 +23 11 103
09/26/01 Oct 02 5390 540053905397 +25 0 77
Composite Volume Open_lnt
09/25/01 12880 43579
Live Cattle
Date
09/26/01 Oct 01 6697 673566306697
09/26/01 Dec 01 6845 689767856860
09/26/01 Febo2 7105 716270607130
09/26/01 Apr 02 7325 736072707332
09/26/01 Jun 02 7005 705069707020
09/26/01 Aug 02 7090 7115 7062 7102
09/26/01 Oct 02 7300 731072657305
Composite Volume Opeh_lnt
09/25/01 24171 112534
Pork Bellies
_ Previous Previous
Open High Low Last Chge Vollune Openjnl
09/26/01 Feb 02 7630 768075007530 -257 1205 , 2529
09/26/01 Mar 02 7650 765074957520 -252 32 56
09/26/01 May 02 7820 784077407840 -210 3 29
09/26/01 Jul 02 7845 784576907690 -285 4. 17
09/26/01 Aug 02 7690 769076257690 -285 1 4
Date
isite Volume Open_lnt
Gomi
1245
09/25/01
Recession Looms In the U. 5.,”
cites a recent survey of economic
forecasters. They expect the U.S.
economy will slow down suffi
ciently this year to put us into a
recession.
The U.S. government will at
tempt to combat both a war and
the recession by increasing
spending and considering addi
tional tax cuts. The economy is
not expected to rebound until
sometime next year.
It is hard to argue that a re
cession will have any positive
impact on the U.S. dairy indus
try. High unemployment, less
business activity, and a reduc
tion in consumer confidence all
points to less spending in the
general economy. However, the
dairy industry is a lot more resi
lient than other sectors of the
economy. Away-from-home
sales of cheese and other dairy
products may be substituted for
more at-home sales. Thus the
direct impact of an inevitable
slowdown in the general econ
omy is not clear for the dairy in
dustry at this time.
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V’
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to
have handy reference of commodity
input costs in their feeding operations
for DHIA record sheets or to develop
livestock feed cost data, here’s last
week’s average costs of various ingred
ients as compiled from regional reports
across the state of Pennsylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.31 bu., 4.14 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 2.48 bu., 4.13 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 —1.4 bu., 3.0 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 1.40 bu„ 4.35 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l —4.41 bu.,7.37 cwt.
Ear Corn 57.82 ton, 2.89 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 116.25 ton, 5.81 cwt.
Mixed Hay 113.75 ton, 5.69 cwt.
Timothy Hay 115.00 ton, 5.75 cwt.
/ Jty
J //
if:
v.