Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, July 28,2001
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, July 26,2001
Soybean Meal
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Ken Bailey
Penn State
July 20,2001
Milk Production
Shortage Easing
• June production down just
0.5 percent.
• Cow numbers rising.
• Butter market rebounds.
USDA reported June milk
production in 20-select states
was 12.0 billion pounds, down
just 0.5 percent. The gap be
tween milk production now and
a year ago appears to be narrow
ing. Recall that milk production
growth the first quarter of last
year was in the 3-5 percent
range.
Production per cow in June
for 20-select states averaged
1,552 pounds, 5 pounds above a
year ago. Thus production per
cow appears to be rebounding.
And June cow numbers for 20-
select states was 7.75 million
head, 2,000 head more than May larly in Texas (down 9.9 per
-2001. Thus cow numbers are be- cent), Missouri (down 9.1
ginning to rise. percent), and Arizona (down 7.7
If the milk Supply stays on percent),
trend, milk production may rise USDA reported the advanced
above year-ago levels in the next pricing factors for August Class
few months. This assumes the I and II milk (skim only) today,
summer weather remains “aver- This was based on two-week
age’’ and we avoid unusually product price averages from
hot and humid weather or July (butter: $1.9364 per pound,
drought conditions. The spring nonfat dry milk: $0.9730,
has been unusually cool in the cheese: $1.6521, and dry whey:
Northeast, resulting in a small $0.2874). These prices produced
rebound in productivity. an advanced skim milk pricing
Second-cutting hay in the factor of $7.90 per CWT for
Northeast was reported to be Class 111 and $7.50 per CWT for
very good. It’s just a bit dry, Class IV.
however, at the moment. The base skim milk price,
Milk growth in June was used in the Class I price for
strongest in the West (California mula, was equal to the higher of
up 3.2 percent, Idaho up 5.7 per- these two prices, or $7.90 per
cent, and New Mexico up 5.6 CWT. This is the first month
percent). These Western states since federal order reform that
also showed growth in cow num- the advanced Class 111 skim
bers. Growth was also strong in price exceeded the Class IV
Indiana (up 17.1 percent) and price. This was no doubt due to
Kentucky (up 5.3 percent). Pro- the declining nonfat dry milk
duction growth was down just prices caused by the butter/
about everywhere else, particu- powder tilt, as well as strong
it in ....... nrrni( lll Uii»i, l tj|Hiijiinijiji»ijijiiiimiiiiiijju||jjjjii||jj>|j|jj||jHim.
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 26 July
Date
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
Composite Volume Openjnt
07/25/01 12495 49555
Live Cattle
Dally Prices As ofThursday, 26 July
Date
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
07/26/01
Composite Volume Openjnt
07/25/01 20791 116495
Pork Bellies
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 26 July
Date
07/26/01 Jul 01 10300 10300 10100 10100 -150
07/26/01 Aug 01 9595 9740 9520 9635 -7
07/26/01 Feb 02 7782 7825 7645 7647 -135
07/26/01 Mar 02 7725 7750 7600 7600 -125
07/26/01 May 02 0 8060 8060 8060 -120
07/26/01 Jul 02 0 8200 8200 8200 unch
Composite Volume Open_lnt
07/25/01 1251 2609
Oats
Open High Low Last Chge
6586
4417
1277
92
73
Aug 01 6895 6997 6895 6960 +45
Oct 01 5905 5955 5875 5937 +47
Dec 01 5450 5490 5445 5482 +4O
Feb 02 5650 5680 5630 5647 +3O
Apr 02 5700 5727 5700 5700 +2O
May 02 6200 6235 6200 6205 -7
Jun 02 6450 6470 6450 6470 +5
Jul 02 6230 6235 6220 6230 unch
Aug 02 0 6015 6005 6005 -7
Open High Low Last Chge „ Prev> Prev *
Volume Openjnt
10961 31006
6323 41757
2280 21632
666 12289
199 5389
362 4413
0 9
Aug 01 7365 7367 7302 7325
Oct 01 7490 7492 7445 7457
Dec 01 7530 7530 7497 7507
Feb 02 7697 7697 7667 7672
Apr 02 7790 7830 7762 7820
Jun 02 7375 7385 7365 7372
Aug 02 0 7400 7400 7400
Open High Low Last Chge „ Prev * Prev *
Volume Openjnt
27 11
1079 2029
145 513
0 42
0 13
0 1
cheese prices.
The Cold Storage report was
also released recently. It indi
cated that butter stocks in public
warehouses grew from 132.4
million pounds in May 2001 to
148.2 million in June. June
butter stocks grew 2 percent
ahead of a year ago. American
cheese inventories grew from
505.6 million pounds in May to
529.1 million pounds in June
2001. June inventories, however,
were 11 percent below a year
ago. Other Natural cheese in
ventories in June were 7 percent
below a year ago.
Reduced inventories of cheese
are holding wholesale prices at
current levels. Prices for 40-
pound block cheese at the Chi
cago Mercantile Exchange
remained at $1.67 per pound
this week. Butter rebounded a
bit this week, rising from
$1.8025 per pound on Monday,
July 16 to $1.8650 by Friday,
July 20. Butter prices may
weaken in the weeks ahead in
reaction to the Cold Storage
report and if the milk supply
continues to grow.
Prev.
Open_lnt
14541
21883
8313
3505
859
194
179
63
18
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to
have handy reference of commodity
input costs in their feeding operations
for DHIA record sheets or to develop
livestock feed cost data, here’s last
week’s average costs of various ingred
ients as compiled from regional reports
across the state of Pennsylvania.
Remember, these are averages, so you
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Corn, No.2y 2.27 bu., 4.07 cwt.
Wheat, N 0.2 2.42 bu., 4.04 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 —1.36 bu., 2.90 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 —1.41 bu., 4.38 cwt.
Soybeans, No.l 4.75 bu., 7.93 cwt.
Ear Corn 61.28 ton, 3.06 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay —101.25 ton, 5.06 cwt.
Mixed Hay —lOO.OO ton, 5.0 cwt.
Timothy Hay 90.00 ton, 4.5 cwt.