i32-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, May 19,2001
a;
Feed Grain Forecasts Lower For Com, Barley, Oats; Higher For Sorghum
WASHINGTON, D.C. U.S.
feed grain production in 2001 is
projected at 266 million metric
tons, compared with 274 million
metric tons in 2000, according to
the “Feed Outlook” report re
leased May 14 by the USDA’s
Economic Research Service.
The projection reflects lower
harvested acreage for com, bar
ley, and oats, but higher harvest
ed acreage for sorghum.
Projected yields are up from
last year for sorghum and barley,
but down for com and oats.
With decreased production
and slightly higher carry-in
stocks, feed grain supplies are
projected to decrease less than 1
percent in 2001-2002.
Domestic demand will remain
strong, but exports are expected
to be similar, leaving total disap
pearance virtually unchanged.
Feed grain stocks are expected
to decrease, suggesting stronger
prices in 2001-2002. Ending
stocks are projected at 53.6 mil
lion tons, down from the forecast
55.5 million in 2000-2001.
Feed grain supplies in
2000-2001 were reduced 100,000
metric tons this month, with re
duced com exports increasing
ending stocks and lowering total
use.
Total feed grain use in
2000/2001 is forecast up less than
1 percent from 1999-2000. Simi
larly, ending stocks are up from
last months estimate and up 14
percent from 1999-2000.
Feed And Residual
Use To Decline
Feed and residual use of the
four feed grains plus wheat in
2001-2002 is projected down
from the estimated 166 million
metric tons used in 2000-2001.
Corn is expected to comprise 88
percent of the total feed and re
sidual used, the same
as in 2000-2001.
Feed and residual
use per grain-con
suming animal unit
(GCAU) is projected
to be similar to
2000-2001’s 1.86 tons.
GCAUs are expected
to be down from
2000-2001. In the
GCAU components,
hog and poultry num
bers are up 2 percent
each from 2000-2001,
but beef numbers are
down 10 percent.
Poultry and egg
producers are increas
ing production in 2001
from 2000 levels.
Broiler production is
expected to be up less
than 1 percent from
2000, the smallest in
crease since 1982.
Producers are ex
pected to reverse this
trend in 2002 and in
crease production 3
percent from 2001.
Turkey meat output in
2001 is forecast up 4
percent from 2000. In
2002, production may
increase another 2 per
cent
Egg production in
2001 is expected to be
up 1 percent from a
year earlier. In 2002,
production is projected
to rise 2 percent from
2001.
With reduced calf
crops and fewer feeder
cattle outside feedlots,
cattle placed on feed
are expected to de
cline. Beef production
in 2001 is expected to
be down S percent
from the record 27 bil
lion pounds produced
in 2000.
With higher prices
expected in 2001 and 2002, pro
ducers are likely to begin re
building herds and reducing
numbers available for feeding. In
2002, beef production is project
ed down 2 percent from 2001.
Pork production in 2001 is ex
pected to begin turning around
from the decline in 2000. In
2001, production is forecast up 1
percent from 2000. The projec
tion for 2002 is up nearly 3 per
cent from 2001.
Corn Production/Ending Stocks
Com production in 2001-2002
is initially projected at 9,575 mil
lion bushels, compared with
9,968 million bushels in 2000,
primarily reflecting a decrease in
planted acres.
The March Prospective Plant
ings report indicated producers
plan to decrease com seedings by
4 percent to 76.7 million acres.
Harvested acreage is projected at
69.9 million acres, based on the
planted-to-harvested relationship
during 1997-2000, excluding
1998. (Because of unusually large
abandonment due to drought
damage in 1998, that year was
not included in the comparison.)
The average com yield for the
2001 crop is projected at 137
bushels per acre, about the same
as the 137.1 bushel yield record
ed for 2000.
This year’s yield projection is
somewhat above trend, reflecting
earlier-than-average plantings of
the crop across much of the Com
Belt, tempered by delayed plant
ings in Minnesota, North Dako
ta, South Dakota, and Wiscon
sin.
The projected effect of early
Corn Belt plantings on potential
yields makes use of a statistical
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regression equation that is fit
over 1975-2000. The variables in
the model include a trend varia
ble, July rainfall and tempera
tures, and planting progress as of
mid-May.
Com supply for 2001-2002 is
projected down almost 1 percent
from 2000-2001. The only
changes made in the 2000-2001
estimates this month was a
50-million-bushel decrease in ex
ports, a 3-million-bushel decrease
in imports and a corresponding
increase in ending stocks. The in
crease in 2000-2001 ending
stocks plus decreased produc
tion, caused global 2001-2002
supplies to be about 1 percent
below a year earlier.
Domestic use of com in
2001/2002 is projected down
nearly 1 percent from
2000-2001’s record high.
Feed and residual use of corn
is expected to be down 125 mil
lion bushels from a year earlier
because of reduced feed demand.
Food, seed, and industrial (FSI)
use is projected up about 4 per
cent from 2000-2001. Exports are
little changed from the 1,900 mil
lion bushels forecast for
2000-2001. Ending stocks are ex
pected to decrease 4 percent
from a year earlier.
Food, Seed, Industrial Use
Of Com To Continue Growing
Food, seed, and industrial
(FSI) use of corn in 2001-2002 is
expected to increase nearly 4 per
cent from a year earlier and
equal to 18 percent of total sup
plies, up from 17 percent in the
last 2 years.
High fructose com syrup use
of com is projected to increase
almost 1 percent from the 550
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million bushels expected to be
used in 2000-2001. This is a slow
er growth rate than in many
prior years, but per-capita sugar
use is already a record high.
Glucose and dextrose use in
2000- is expected to be down
from the previous year, but is ex
pected to increase again in
2001- Starch use of com in
the first half of 2000-2001 was
down from the year earlier but
for all of 2000-2001, starch use is
expected to rebound and be up
nearly 2 percent from 1999-2000.
Com used to produce starch may
increase 2 percent from the ex
pected use in 2000-2001.
Ethanol Production
Monthly ethanol production
reported by the Department of
Energy was record high at
116,000 barrels in February 2001.
In addition, alcohol production
in the first half of 2000-2001 was
record high at 843 million gal
lons compared with 788 million
in 1999-2000.
This ethanol production re
flects higher use of capacity and
the new plants that have been
added in the last year to take ad
vantage of various state-level
ethanol production incentives.
In addition, 42 companies
have signed up to increase etha
nol output by 246 million gallons
in response to the Bioenergy Pro
gram, which provides incentives
for increased production. Com
used to produce ethanol in
2000-2001 is expected to be up 9
percent from 1999-202000’s 566
million bushels.
There have been many pro
posed laws that could directly or
indirectly affect ethanol produc
tion. Many localities would pre
fer ethanol-blended gasoline to
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Corn Price To Remain Weak
Prices received by farmers to
date and assuming normal mar
ketings suggest prices will aver
age between $l.BO per bushel and
$1.90 per bushel in 2000-2001,
about the same as the $1.82 per
bushel received in 1999-2000.
With ending com stocks down
only slightly from a year earlier,
average prices received by farm
ers are projected between $1.65
and $2.05 per bushel.
Sorghum Supply, Use
During the first 2 weeks of
March, farmers said they in
tended to plant 9.4 million acres
to sorghuj .i in 2001, up 2 percent
from last year and 1 percent
above 1999.
Using the historical relation
ship between harvested and
planted acres during 1997-2000,
excluding 1998, gives an estimat
ed harvested acreage of 8.3 mil
lion acres. If realized, this esti
mated harvested acreage would
be up 0.6 million acres from
2000.
Yields for 2001 were estimated
from a simple linear trend fit
over the 1960-2000 period and
are expected to be up almost 14
percent from last year’s drought
reduced level.
Sorghum production in 2001 is
projected to increase 22 percent
from 2000’s 470 million bushels.
Total supply is projected up 18
percent from 2000-2001 because
of increased production.
(Turn to Page A 33)
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