A26-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 17,2001
Grade AA butter is currently
trading at around $l 32 per
pound That translates roughly to
a Class IV price of around $l2 64
pet cwt Current butter prices are
high because inventories are
seasonally very low Butter
production grew just 2 3 percent
in 2000, while consumption
(January through November)
grew 1 9 percent Demand for
milk fat has been strong m recent
years and butter production is the
last residual use for milk fat If
the milk supply m 2001 grows
just 1-2 peicent, and that looks
likely, butter will be very tight
So, looking at the futures prices,
the market is expecting Grade AA
butter prices to peak at roughly
$1 45 per pound this fall. Butter
prices could get stronger than
that
'heese
inces are
going to be harder to
predict The milk
supply grew 3.4
percent in 2000 while
cheese production grew
3 7 percent Total
consumption of cheese
(January through
November) grew 2 1
percent lor American
Cheese and 5 5 percent
lor Other Cheese
(mainly moz/eralla)
We ended the year with
cheese stocks 118
percent ahead of a year
ago
Cheese production
in December 2000,
however. tell 2 2
percent below
Decembei 1999 Theie
is concern that if the
milk supply is off in
2001, cheese
production will slow
However, even if the
milk supply grows just
1-2 percent, less cheese
production will be
offset some by slower
cheese demand A soft
economy in 2001
should tianslate into
lower cheese sales
And, it is very possible
people may be over
reacting to California’s
production woes No
doubt California and
Idaho will see slower
growth rates for milk
production However,
that is not the same as a
big drop in production
January cheese
prices of $1 12 per
pound translated into a
Class 111 price of $9 99
per cwt It will take a
cheese price of around
$1 36 per pound to get
a Class 111 price of
$l2 15 per cwt In my
book a fall rally of
$1 36 per pound for
cheese looks very
reasonable However,
it is the market
expectation of Class 111
prices between
February and June that
I am calling into
question
FUTURES MARKETS
(Continued from page Al 6)
These prices look fairly
strong Dairy producers may want
to consider contacting their broker
or cooperative and locking in
some of their 2001 milk supply
given these futures prices. My
advice is to lock in some of your
milk supply relative to the Class
111 futures for February through
June. Hold off locking in too
much milk thereafter since the
outlook beyond the summer
months is highly speculative at
this point I would also avoid a
major commitment on Class IV
futures contracts since I believe
butter will be a limiting factor m
the market place this year
However, if you feel comfortable
with these prices, consider
locking m a small part of your
2001 milk supply relative to the
Class IV prices, particularly
* ;
Early
Order
Discount
H BARENBRUG Forages For Profit
GREAT IN GRASS
Also Available:
B.G. 34 Ryegrass Kirkwood
Baralfa 54 & 32-IQ Alfalfa Snyder Co
Red & Alice White Clover Snyder Co
Chicory s sommerset Co
Bromes
Timothy Reeds Canary
Green Spirit Ryegrass
Horsemaster
Orchardgrass
Kemal Festululolium
Fescue
Forage Soybeans
Forage Oats
Trlticale
Cereal Rye
COWS LOVE IT!
Our palatable high-quality pasture mixtures
We blend several different pasture mixes using premium quality
seed to fit your farm’s soil and grazing management needs. We
use grasses, clovers, and in some cases a grazing-tolerant alfalfa
to make a blend that increases dry-matter intake and milk
production.
Dealer Inquiries Welcome
- Also available from -
.Herb Weaver 717-529-2386 Churchtown Galen Martin....
. Edwin Martin Port Trevorton Berks Co Paul Keller
.'Glenn Beidler 570-539-8993 Perry Co Glenn Martin
.Leroy Brenneman 486 Davis Rd Atg1en. ....... . ...... ... Sylvan Smoker.
Ant 1 Salisbury 15558 Cochranvllle Ag Service
M T h nm ,c a! Zl7q 7S7n York Co. Hakes Farm & Seed Service....
ss! jssse,- anssf
E. Ofumgw Swds - King . ■ ■ 717.548-3376 1! V
M Ill' Bl ° Fafm Service Brian p Uthey...
Lancaster Aq Products. 717"293*9701 Tioafl Cft David Johnson
Little Britain Landis Weaver 717-529-2609 T,oga Co a 0
Centre Co John Glick 814-383-4529
Bio Farm Service 717-687-7420,800-216-1271
Dauphin Co Christ F. Fisher 717-362-9038
during the first half of 2001.
Remember, a good strategy to
follow is to set a limit regarding
how much of your total milk
supply to lock in during 2001
That number may be as low as 25
percent for those unfamiliar with
futures markets, and may be as
high as 50-75 percent for those
with more experience
A much better picture of the
dairy markets will unfold when
USDA releases the January milk
production report on February 16
and the next dairy stocks report
(cold storage report) on February
21.
Bradford County
Holstein Club Meets
TOWANDA (Bradford Co.)
The Bradford County Hol
stein Club Annual Meeting was
held Saturday, Jan. 27, 2001.
New directors elected were Scott
Walrath, A 1 Calkins, and Jeff
Jenkins.
Dave Paddon, representative
for the National Holstein Asso
ciation was the main speaker
during the meeting. Paddon dis
cussed current issues of impor
tance to members of the
National Holstein Association.
In other business, the Brad-
Average Farm Feed
Costs for Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state to
have handy reference of commodity
.input costs in their feeding operations
for DHIA record sheets or to develop
livestock feed cost data, here’s last
week’s average costs of various ingred
ients as compiled from regional reports
across the state of Pennsylvania.
KING’S AGRI SEED
Formerly Aaron King Seeds
Specializing in high quality forages and grazing since 1993
Fairview Fruit Farm, 96 Paradise Lane, Ronks, PA 17572
717-687-6224
Lots of Seed In Stock
ford County Holstein Club will
have the in county tour on Sat.,
March 17 beginning at 11 a.m.
The tour will visit three farms,
the Joe and Penny Kenyon
Farm, the Richard Kingsley
farm, and the Dale and Lyle
Mattocks farm, all in the Spring
field area of Bradford County.
Milk and donuts will be pro
vided courtesy of the Holstein
Club. For more information,
contact Dean Jackson at (570)
297-2838.
will need to adjust your figures up or
down according to your location and the
quality of your crop.
Com, No.2y 2.19 bu., 3.93 cwt
Wheat, N 0.2 2.41 bu., 4.02 cwt.
Barley, N 0.3 —1.57 bu., 3.35 cwt.
Oats, N 0.2 —1.35 bu., 4.21 cwt.
Soybeans, No. 1 4.32 bu., 7.22 cwt.
Ear Corn 59.77 ton, 2.99 cwt.
Alfalfa Hay 91.25 ton, 4.56 cwt.
Mixed Hay 92.50 ton, 4.63 cwt.
Timothy Hay 91.75 ton, 4.59 cwt.
$lO Per Bag
Rebate on
Alfalfa*
Alto Aviilible:
Blends for
Intensive Grazing
Mega Green
Sudangrass
Brown Mid-Rib
Sorghum
Hi Protein Corn
Braatlcas
717-445-5782
.610-589-2614
717-582-2730
.610-593-2831
717-529-5653
717-244-2754
.717-665-7655
717-949-2486
.570-547-7118
814-349-4333
.570-324-2285
*Baralfa 42-IQ not
included in rebate