Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 17,2001
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, February 15,2001
Corn i i iiiii imi Hi
B|^ 211 3/4 3/4 [ 212 6
3/4|222 1/2 220 220 220 1/4 |220 1/4 -4
228 3/41230 1/4 227 1/2 227 1/2 228 227 3/4 -4
illllsf ~' 237i238 1/4 235 1/2|235 1/2 [235 3/4 1235 3/4' -2
H 248 1/2 246 3/4 246 3/4 247 246 3/4 Unch
257 1/2 256 256 256 Unch
263 261 261 [261 1/2 [261 1/4 -6
266 3/4 266 266 1/4 266 1/4 +2
265 I^"2
l/2 454 1/2 449 1/2 450 1/2 450 450 1/4 -16
M88454T72 455 1/2 451 1/4 451 1/2 452 451 3/4 -10
Mi 460 461 1/2 457 458 457 1/2 457 3/4 -6
iHipeO 1/2 461 1/2 457 458 1/2 458 1/2 Unch
MHwi 4591 459 456 456 456 -10
SH||§464 1/2)464 1/2*459 1/2 460 1/4|459 1/2 460|^14
|Mlffi473 l/2r 474f470 1/2 4701/2I ~ [470 1/2 [ -10
gHir 482 482 482 482 482 Unch
5041 504 503 503 +-4
Soybean Meal
Mbrtth |openlnff[ Hi&h
upiMer 161.1j162.01160.9i 161.1 [ 161.4
SlMfcyl
OlJul 160.0 ;
PlAug i 159.1
-r*- -
(OJ.Sep,
160.2
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
even higher, peaking at $l2 38 for
September.
The Class IV futures prices at
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
showed even more price strength
As of February 9, the Class IV
futures settlement price was
$12,61 per cwt for February.
That price rose to $l2 90 per cwt
in June and peaked at $l3 26 in
August.
So what is driving these
prices? It really boils down to
future expectations of the milk
supply. The December milk
production report showed the
milk supply even with a year ago
with declining cow numbers
There is concern that the high cost
of energy, electricity problems in
California, and profitability
concerns in other western states
like Idaho may further erode the
milk supply. If that happens, look
for cheese and butter prices to rise
rapidly My sense , however, is
that the market may be over
reacting to very limited
information. Let’s look at the
Ken Bailey
Penn State University
February 9,2001
Market Continues
Showing Strength
• CME cheese prices
rising
• Class 111 futures steady
• Class IV futures
strengthening
What a difference a few
weeks makes! Cheese prices at
the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
are on the rise. Prices for 40-
pound blocks rose from $1 12 per
pound on Monday, February 5 to
$1 16 per pound by Friday,
February 9. Barrel cheese prices
rose from $1.16 per pound on
Monday to $1.20 by Friday. This
inversion between blocks and
barrels will likely not last long
The futures prices at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange are
showing signs of strength. As of
February 9, the Class 111 futures
settlement price was $lO 20 per
cwt for February. That price rose
to $11.34 for June and peaked at
$12.15 in August. Class 111
futures prices on February 8 were
160.6 159.4 i 159.8 | 160.0
j160.2i159.0 159.0 | 159.3
;159.2;158.1 158.3 1 158.4
facts
161.2
159.9
159.2
158.3
(Tum to Page A 26)
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
Composite VolumeOpenjnt
02/14/01 20590 133180
Pork Bellies
Daily Prices As of
Date
+6
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
02/15/01
+ 5
-21
Unch
Composite Volume Open_lnt
02/14/01 371 2871
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages
Cheese:
500 lb. barrels
40-lb. blocks
Butter:
Grade AA 1 3142 1.3308 1.2958
Source: Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA
(http://www. ams. usda. gov/dairy/mncs/weekly. htm).
Table 2. NASS Weekly US Average Survey Prices
3-Feb-01 27-Jan-01 20-Jan-01
Cheese
500 lb. Barrels 1/ 1.0943 1.0860
40-lb. blocks 1.0898 1.0802
Butter 1.2865 1.2371
Nonfat Dry Milk 1.0160 1.0150
Dry whey 0.2505 0.2525
Source: Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA
(http://usda. mannlib.comell. edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/).
1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture.
Apr 01
Jun 01
JulOl
Aug 01
Oct 01
Dec 01
Feb 02
Apr 02
Composite Volume Open lnt
02/14/01 7901 39853
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
Aug 01
Oct 01
Dec 01
Feb 02
Feb 01
Mar 01
May 01
JulOl
Aug 01
Feb 02
Mar 02
9-Feb-Ol 2-Feb-Ol 26-Jan-01
1.1880 1.1300 1 0920
1.1480 1.1010 1 1110
- Thursday, 15 February
Prev.
Open High Low Last Chge Volum g
5512
1361
325
132
50
64
5835 5995 5830 5922
6470 6580 6452 6537
6250 6310 6235 6282
5965 6030 5960 5970
5295 5340 5270 5272
5080 5092 5055 5065
0 5185 5165 5185
0 5135 5135 5135
- Thursday, 15 February
Prev
Open High Low Last Chge y o ] ume
4830
10959
2133
1692
516
417
42
8017 8035 7987 8005
7832 7840 7787 7797
7257 7265 7225 7240
7200 7210 7180 7185
7390 7410 7377 7380
7490 7507 7467 7472
7585 7595 7562 7567
Thursday, 15 February
Prpv
Open High Low Last Chge y o j um g
6925 6990 6900 6940 +lO
6945 7010 6920 6935 -30
7140 7172 7100 7122 -28
7140 7170 7140 7170 -20
7100 7120 7100 7120 +25
0 6225 6225 6225 unch
0 6090 6090 6090 unch
1.0889
1.0906
1.2177
1.0172
0.2498
Openjnt
18485
8639
1762
2706
2800
1653
137
Prev.
Open_lnt
13971
63856
21902
18609
10353
3684
804
unch
-25
-17
unch
-5
-5
-15
Prev.
Open_lnt
195
1693
760
172
49
12-Jan-01
19-Jan-01
1.0800
1.0869
1.2413
13-Jan-01
6-Jan-01
1.1079
1.1077
1.1589
1.0156
0.2476
Prev.
1.0650
1.0705
1.2367
1.1218
1.1283
1.1073
1.0192
0.2394