AIS-Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, September 16, 2000
GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG,
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, Sept. 14,2000
Corn
P 9 3/4 f
i/4[ /a 1
911/4' /7i 189 1/2 xB9 3
_ 9h 1 7 li. ]
L/4, 3/*, h
21 °"~ L/2 ‘ ----- 7_ '
' 216 1/2T217 1/4 2 216 216 1/2 2l<-
223[” 2241 2 d .1/2f 222 1/2 f [222 1/2, _
- '2(~ _ 2341232 1/2 232 1/2 1 232 3/4 232 3'' 1
| _ _i ' ~~7"_ 251 nf ‘ ’ r
"T f ~~ "12513/471
" "w ''
HPT
_/4\ 1001 101 bj
1/2 109 1/4 IJO9 1/2 flo9 1/4
20 l/4 r 119 119 I
I 124 b 124 1/2a12
*/2i 129 1/2 129 1/2 129 1/2 ~ 129
_ f |134 1/2 b 135 a 134 3.
7 139 b 140 a'fl39 1/.
49617 z 497 1/2 490 1/2 492 1/2 491 491 3/4 76
505 1/2| 507[500 1/2 502 [SOI 1/4|501 3/4j^72
l/2 slo[ 512 511 1/2|511 3/4[-62
01 MBy 522 522 1/2 517 1/2 519 1/2 518 1/2 519[ -64
OlJul 530 1/2 530 1/2 525 526 1/2 525 1/2 526 -76
' i“‘” I !525 _ 1/2| [525 1/27-76
OlAug: j n
r flk I9l[l 190 I _
fojMjT _ 1?5 195|193 1/2 193 1/2 | _ _ 193 1/2] -20
cSMif' 203 203 1/4 201 1/2 201 3/4 [ 20J. 1/2 [2Ol 3/4 -16
210 210 1/2,208 3/4 209 1/2 | 209 209 1/4 -12
216 1/2[217 1/4 215 1/2f 216 ! 216 1/2 216 1/4
223 2241222 1/2 222 1/2 f 222 1/2 -12
233 1/2 234 232 1/2 232 1/2 \ 232 3/4 232 3/4 -12
.’•WHBI i 251 n{ 251
[Spljp f I 1251 3/4 nf ' ~ [251 3/4
Oats
OlSep
528 j 527 (~527 l/2[ -421
Month opening High | Low-.,i >f Closing ±U
I l_ 1 -r v , . i'
01 Nov
530 530,
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
September 8,2000
Outlook is for Limited
Price Relief
Cheese prices showing some
strength
Class 111 price will peak at
$ll
Class IV price to decline rest
of year
The outlook for milk prices has
been hampered by growing cow
numbers m the west, cheap grain
prices, and rising cheese stocks
That has kept cheese prices, and
hence Class 111 prices, lower than
I had expected for this time of the
year Those lower Class 111 prices
have been offset somewhat with
higher Class I, 11, and IV prices
Overall, farm-gate milk prices
will only rise about $1 per cwt
this tall in most federal orders
The outlook for dairy
commodity prices and class prices
are in tables 1-2 below. The
market expects butter prices will
weaken and cheese prices will
strengthen over the next few
months Demand for cheese has
been very good so far this year
and cheese volume the last few
weeks at the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange has been very good
525 1/2
1 n,
5271
Expect NASS monthly cheese
prices to average $1.26 pei pound
in October and begin to decline
thereafter The NASS cheese
prices are lower than expected
mainly because of the extreme
gap that had widened in recent
weeks between the block and
barrel prices Both the blocks and
barrels are used in the NASS
calculation for average cheese
prices Butter prices have already
peaked and will begin to decline
throughout the year
Based on forecasts of cheese
prices, the Class 111 price will
peak at |ust over $ll per
cwt in October. You will recall
that the Class 111 futures prices
were trading at around $12.50 per
cwt for September and October
about six weeks ago. Some dairy
producers I spoke with had locked
in those prices using the futures
markets. As of September 8, the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
futures settlement price for
October was $ll.lO per cwt. It
was $10.75 in December.
Class IV prices are expected
to peak at $ll9O in September
and then begin to decline
thereafter. That is due to the
outlook for lower butter prices
The Chicago Mercantile Class IV
futures prices as of September 8,
'{525 1/2 j -46 1
I 1 I
Table 2 Class Price Forecasts under Order Reform, CWT Prices at 3 5 Percent
Butterfat
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep 1/
Oct 1/
Nov 1/
Dec 1/
Annual avg
1/ Forecasts
Forecasts provided by Ken Bailey, Penn State University, September 6,
2000
2000 had $11.61 per cwt tor
October and a decline to $ll 50
per cwt by December
For the remainder of the
year, both the Class I mover and
the Class II price will move with
the Class IV price Since the
Class IV price is expected to
decline, so also will the Class II
price, which is equal to the Class
IV skim milk price plus $0 70 per
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 14 September
Date
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
JulOl
Aug 01
Oct 01
Dec 01
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
-16
Composite Volume Openjnt
09/13/00 10874 38952
-12
Live Cattle
-12
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 14 September
Date
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
09/14/00
Composite Volume Openjnt
09/13/00 12845 123670
Table 1. Forecast of Commodity Prices, 2-week and Monthly Averages for
2000, $/lb.
Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Cheese Dry Whey
2-week Monthly 2-week Monthly 2-week Monthly2-week Monthly
Jan 0.9220 0.8820 1.0125 1.0115 1.1268
Feb 0.8768 0.9002 1.0114 1.0106 1 1696
Mar 0.9105 0.9497 1.0104 1.0094 1 1084
Apr 0.9331 1 0449 1.0098 1.0078 1 1073
May 1.0618 1 1680 1.0096 1.0071 1 1035
Jun 1 1140 1.2725 1.0100 1.0097 1 1011
Jul 1.2911 1.1547 1.0106 1 0102 1.1060
Aug- 1 1729 1.1520 1.0093 1.0108 1 2269
Sep 1/ 1.1465 1 1561 1.0091 1 0119 1.1847
Oct 1/ 1.1500 1.1000 1.0100 1.0100 1 2300
Nov 1/ 1.1000 1.1000 1.0100 1.0100 1.2650
Dec 1/ 1.1000 1.0800 1 0100 1.0100 1.2300
Annual avg 1.0649 1.0800 1.0102 1.0099 1.1633
Source http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/fmor_announce htm
1/ Forecasts
Forecasts provided by Ken Bailey, Penn State University, September 6,
2000
Class I Base Price
1999 2000
cwt. The Class I mover is equal
to the higher of the Class 111 or IV
skim milk price. Since the Class
IV skim milk price will likely be
greater than the Class 111 skim
milk price, look for the Class I
mover to decline with the Class
IV price the rest of the year For
dairy producers in Class I
markets, the surge m Class I
demand due to kids going back to
Prev
Open High Low Last Chge Volum g
5689
4566
516
65
25
5435 5470 5390 5442
5135 5165 5090 5140
5230 5250 5200 5227
5070 5090 5045 5055
5730 5745 5710 5732
5670 5677 5650 5672
5495 5522 5495 5515
4720 4720 4712 4712
0 4585 4585 4585
Open High Low Last Chge Qpenjnt
6245 49750
3995 39740
1374 17241
648 9412
312 3988
117 2790
153 749
Oct 00 6695 6790 6685 6765
Dec 00 6887 6980 6885 6967
Feb 01 7015 7085 7015 7072
Apr 01 7227 7285 7227 7280
Jun 01 6985 7035 6985 7030
Aug 01 7015 7070 7015 7035
Oct 01 7285 7325 7280 7317
Class II
1999 2000
1.15170.1870
1,10670.1859
1.10930.1800
1.10110.1771
1.10220 1774
1 11370.1755
1.21890.1794
1 166001893
1.22950 1940
1.25700 1865
1 23000 1865
1 21000.1865
1 16630.1838
Class 111 Class Illa/IV
1999 2000 1999 2000
10.05 13.12
9.54 12.78
9.54 12.36
9.41 11.06
9.37 11.62
9.46 13 29
10.66 12.37
10.13 12.62
10 74 12.37
11.05 11.78
10.77 11.57
10.57 10.69
10.11 12 14
school will help offset some of
the dollar decline in the Class I
mover.
You can find useful
information about the dairy
industry on my website at:
http://www.aers.psu edu/dairyoutl
ook/
Prev.
Openjnt
16321
15595
4233
1719
684
229
136
25
10
0.1857
0.1788
0.1780
0.1765
0.1760
0.1794
0 1909
0.1929
0.1862
0.1865
0.1865
0.1865
0.1837