AlfrLancastar Fanning, Saturday, August 26, 2000
GRAIN. CATTLE. HOG.
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, Aug. 24,2000
Corn
02Dec 247 1/2 247 3/4
>ri 1 > !
Month Opening | High 1 Low -■
Soybeans
460
470
480 1/2
frlHaT
490 1/2
titmv
498 1/4
.MW
'IV?'
507
506 1/2
oigjT
Month Opening |
514
Oats
ij|| ” 980 984 _’ ' 972 980 [ ' | _ 980 J_ _
|[loB 3/4 109 108 108 1/2 108 1/2
SllS 374 118 3/4 117 3/4 118 1/4 118 1/4
123 1/2 124 1/2 124
I in rzrrr 129 b iso a 1291/2
133 1/2 134 1/2 134
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
August 18, 2000
Cow Numbers Continue
to Climb
• July milk production up
5%
July cow numbers
continue to climb
American cheese stocks
up 10%
USDA announces
changes in support
program
USDA released the July milk
production report for 20 major
dairy states thi,' week Most
analysts I spoke with were
amazed at the gravity of this
report July milk production for
these states was 12 2 billion
pounds, up 5.0 percent.
Production per cow in 20 major
states averaged 1,557 pounds for
July, 59 pounds above July 1999.
247 247 3/4
47
ks
49
50i
501
506 1/2
508 1/2
518 1/2
And, the most surprising fact, the
number of cows on farms was7.B3
million head Cow numbers in
July were up a full one percent
relative to December 1999
Indiana continued to lead the
growth rate in milk production, up
217 percent relative to a year
ago Cow numbers alone in
Indiana were up 15,000 head
relative to July 1999 Other states
with strong growth rates were
Missouri (up 16.3 percent), Idaho
(up 14 9 percent), Arizona (up
11 0 percent), California (up 10.8
percent), and New Mexico (up 9 8
percent) In addition, Illinois,
lowa, and Virginia were up
around 7 percent The only state
with a negative growth rate was
New York (down 1.8 percent),
which experienced excessive
spring rams and poor forage
conditions
USDA also released the Cold
Storage report this week. That
Closing
r * *•!
507 1/21508 1/z! 508
b a
+ 2
247 3/4
Settle^
+ 24
Cheese
500 lb barrels
40-lb blocks
Nonfat dry milk
Extra Grade
Grade A
Butter
Grade AA 1 1875 1.1950
Source■ Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA
(http //www ams usda.gov/dairy/mncs/weekly htm).
report indicated that butter,
American and total cheese stocks Table 2. NASS Weekly US Average Survey Prices
as of July 31 were each up 10 12-Aug-OO 5-Aug-00 29-Jul-00 22-Jul-00 15-Ju!
percent over a year ago. More
milk is increasingly turning into
more butter and cheese
American cheese stocks usually
begin to decline this time of year
as milk production declines
seasonally and demand begins to
eat away at stocks. This year,
however, cheese stocks continued
to grow from one month to the
next
Both the milk production
report and the Cold Storage report
had a negative impact on the
Class 111 futures market. CME
settlement prices as of August 18
were as follows: August $10.02;
September $10.41; October
$10.75; November $10.65; and
December $10.70. The
September/October CME Class
(Turn to Pag* A 23)
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
JulOl
Aug 01
Oct 01
Dec 01
Composite Volume Open_lnt
08/23/00 6396 35728
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
Aug 00 6755 6770 6732 6740
Oct 00 6900 6900 6855 6867
Dec 00 7025 7027 6995 7015
Feb 01 7162 7165 7145 7155
Apr 01 7350 7360 7347 7352
JunOl 7135 7137 7120 7122
Aug 01 7107 7107 7090 7092
Composite VolumeOpenjnt
08/23/00 10112 119568
Pork Bellies
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 24 August
Date
Aug 00 6045 6350 6045 6087 -408
Feb 01 6500 6575 6420 6532 +l2O
Mar 01 6420 6550 6420 6525 +155
May 01 0 6610 6410 6410 unch
Jul 01 0 6650 6580 6650 unch
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
08/24/00
Composite Volume Openjnt
08/23/00 640 1660
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averagi
18-Aug-00 11-Aug-00 4-Aug-00 28-Jul-00 21-Jul-00
Cheese
5001 b. Barrels 1/ 1 1100 1 1744
40-lb. blocks 1 1873 1.2212
Butter 1.1598 1.1291
Nonfat dry milk 10139 1.0049
Dry whey 0 1930 0.1948
Source: Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA
(http://usda. mannhb. Cornell, edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/).
1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture.
Table 3. Dairy Stocks in Cold Storage, By Commodity
Dairy Products
Butter, total
(Government owned)
Natural Cheese
American, total
(Government owned)
Swiss
Other natural cheese
- Thursday, 24 August
Prey
Open High Low Last Chge Volume
3604
2219
421
70
43
21
15
5330 5350 5285 5330
5020 5070 5002 5052
5130 5155 5100 5120
4995 5010 4972 4980
5635 5660 5630 5635
0 5575 5567 5567
5390 5425 5390 5397
0 4870 4850 4850
0 4840 4825 4825
- Thursday, 24 August
Open High Low Last Chge
714
5915
1990
523
662
122
186
p rev .
Open High Low Last Chge Volume
52
578
1 0820
1.2815
1.0520
I 2215
1 0300 1 0300 1.0300 1.0300 1 0300
1.0300 1 0300 1.0300 1 0300 1.0300
+3B
+6O
+ 15
+8
+23
+5
-10
-5
-5
1.0580
1.1450
1.1730
1 2635
1 1833
1 1550
1.1847
1.2144
1.1274
1.0098
0.1965
Jul 31 Jun3o Jul 31 %chng
1999 2000 2000 year ago
,1000 Pounds
123,552 144,861 136,357 10.4%
334 420 391 17.1%
543,642 570,290 598,098
48 46 60
10,590 8,646 8,465
194,486 203,362 214,287
Prev.
Openjnt
mu
10551
3624
1674
609
157
84
Prev.
Openjnt
3665
58669
29159
14122
7876
3446
2631
Prev.
Openjnt
85
1535
25
1 1720
1.2115
1.1483
1.2192
1.2280
1.1422
1.0124
0.1938
I.l'
1.0
0.1!
10.0%
25.0%
-20.1%
10.2%