Lancaster farming. (Lancaster, Pa., etc.) 1955-current, June 17, 2000, Image 33

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    Ho-Hum Report Sings
Lullaby For Prices
COLUMBUS, Ohio A
normal crop size and lackluster
prices is the sum of the June 9
monthly production report
issued by the USDA, said agri
cultural economist Allan Lines,
Ohio State University.
The USDA’s projections for a
137 bushel-per-acre com yield
and a 40-bushel-per-acre soy
bean yield both considered
“normal” would flush the
market with a high carryout de
spite strong demand on the do
mestic and foreign fronts, Lines
said.
“We are building stocks even
with normal crops,” Lines said
“That’s the message here. If we
get near the normal crop that
USDA is predicting, that will
put pressure on prices.”
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Because most crops are just
emerging in fields, the report is
based on an economic model
and not on actual field surveys,
Lines said. However, the season
holds leeway for crop losses if a
drought scare materializes, or
for a bumper crop if growing
conditions turn exceptional, he
said.
Just a three-bushel-per-acre
increase in corn yield 140
bushels per acre would push
the projected 2000-2001 com
carryout from a forecasted 1.9
billion bushels to 2.1 billion
bushels, Lines said. And that
would cause prices to drift below
USDA’s projected range of
SI.6S-S2.OS per bushel, he said.
As for soybeans, a four
bushel-per-acre yield increased
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44 bushels per acre would
raise a 2000-2001 ending stocks
forecast from just under 500
million bushels to almost 800
million bushels. Lines said.
Under that scenario, prices
would shift from a forecasted
range of $4-$5 per bushel down
to $3.50 per bushel per acre, he
said.
“The market just looked at
the report Friday (June 9) morn
ing and kind of yawned,” Lines
said. “The weather forecast and
crop condition reports are
speaking louder to them than
this government report.”
In all, USDA is projecting a
9.74-billion-bushel corn crop
unchanged from the May report
and 3.2 percent more than
the 9.437-billion-bushel crop in
1999.
As for soybeans, USDA proj
ects a record 2.955-billion
bushel crop unchanged from
the May report and an 11.8
percent increase above last
year’s 2.643-billion-bushel crop.
“We have to get used to talk
ing about a three-billion-bushel
soybean crop in the United
States,” Lines said. “We used to
talk about two-billion-bushel
crops, but now that’s becoming a
thing of the past.”
Not much can be done on the
demand side to trim the ribs of
bulging bins, Lines said. Domes
tic feed, meal, and oil usage is at
record levels, he said. Exports
are already at “significantly” in
creased levels for soybeans, oil,
meal and corn, also.
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“USDA is a little soft on the
growth side of exports, but I do
agree with them that exports are
going to be strong across the
board for ail corn products,
beans, meal and oil,” Lines said.
Marketing loan rates for corn
and soybeans will offer farmers
protection from low prices,
Lines said. However, they
should be alert to weather scares
that could bump up prices be
tween now and mid-summer,
providing potential forward
contracting opportunities.