Al6-Lancttter Fanning, Saturday, May 20, 2000
GRAIN. CATTLE. HOG
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, May 18,2000
Com
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:C
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
Total
05/17/00
Soybeans
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:S
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
Total
05/17/00
Oats
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:O
Open High
05/18/00 JUL 00 1200 1224
05/18/00 SEP 00 1260 1270
05/18/00 DEC 00 1314 1326
05/18/00 MAR 01 1374
05/18/00 MAY 01
Total
05/17/00
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
May 12,2000
Imports Fall With Lower
Milk Prices
-Impoits dtop 9 3%=20
-Demand for butter and cheese
strong
-Chicago puces stable
-Match cheese and butter
production stable
In theory, imports of dairy
products should fall as U S prices
for dairy products tall That's
because the advantage of lower
priced foreign dairy products
diminishes as U.S prices decline
to world prices That may explain
why the latest USDA figures
show total dairy imports for the
period December 1999 through
February 2000 fell 9.3 percent
(see Table below) relative to the
same period a year ago. My
estimation is that imports of dairy
products will continue to decline
this year relative to a year ago
The same data also shows milk
production during the period
December 1999 - February 2000
was up 4.1 percent, and that
commercial disappearance-which
includes exports—was up 4.6
percent (on a milkfat basis). For
individual dairy products,
consumption during the same
- Thursday, 18 May
Volume Open_lnt
78679 471456
- Thursday, 18 May
Volume Open_Xnt
58219 194078
- Thursday, 18 May
1410
Volume Qpen_Znt
1596 17396
period was as follows: butter up
7,1 percent, American cheese up
6 3 percent, other cheese up 8 5
percent, and nonfat dry milk
down 29 8 percent. All these
figures are relative to the same
period a year ago.
It must be rewarding to know
that a strong U.S economy is
translating into strong sales for
butter and cheese.
So if consumption is greater
than production (slightly), why
aren't dairy prices doing any
better than they are? For one,
beginning stocks of dairy
products for this period was well
above year ago levels. Despite
great sales, we still need time to
sell all these surplus stocks.
Second, the market for cheese and
butter works off of psychology.
The outlook is for continued
surplus milk production, and that
means surplus production of
butter and cheese. That could
change, however, if strong
demand continues and dairy
production regions face periods of
hot/dry weather.
USDA released the Dairy
Products report last week. Those
numbers were a bit surprising.
We know that milk production
has been well above year ago
Chge
+ 10
+ 12
+ 6
+ 10
+4
Last
1200
1250
1304
1374
1410
Low
1200
1250
1304
1374
1410
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 18 May
Date
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
Jun 00
JuIOO
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb'ol
Apr 01
Jun 01
JulOl
Composite Volume
05/17/00 10058
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 18 May
Date
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
05/18/00
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/17/00
Lumber
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 18 May
Date
05/18/00 JulOO 28380 28590 28160
05/18/00 Sep 00 28740 29130 28700
05/18/00 Nov 00 29040 29410 29040
05/18/00 Jan 01 0 30100 29200
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/17/00 1188 3106
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Weekly Averages
12-May-00 5-May-00 28-Apr-00 21-Apr-00 14-Apr-00
Cheese;
500 lb. barrels
40-lb. blocks
Nonfat dry milk:
Extra Grade
Grade A
Butter:
Grade AA
Source: Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA
(http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/weekly.htm).
Table 2. NASS Weekly U.S. Average Survey Prices
6-May-00 29-Apr-00 22-Apr-00 15-Apr-00 8-Apr-00
Cheese;
500 lb. Barrels 1/
40-lb. blocks
Butter
1.0709 1.0641
1.0897 1.0977
1.0895 1 0351
Nonfat dry milk 1.0086 1.0068
Dry whey 0.1758 0.1776
Source: Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/).
// Adjusted to 39% moisture.
Table 3. Commercial Disappearance of Milk and Dairy Products
MILK
Production
Marketings
Beg commercial stocks
Imports
Total supply
Ending commercial stocks
Net removals
Commercial disappearance
SELECTED PRODUCTS
Butter
American cheese
Other cheese
Nonfat dry milk
Fluid milk products
Source: Dairy Market News
Open High
7102 7145
6990 7040
6670 6720
5825 5847
5607 5630
5690 5700
5575 5587
6325 6345
6200 6200
Open_lnt
67890
Open High
6837
6815
7077
7237
7370
7585
7407
6805
6800
7060
7220
7365
7585
7405
12380 120170
Open High Low
1.0995
1.1070
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
1.1950
Chge
Low
Last
Chge
Last
Low
unch
-12
6820
6795
7070
7225
7365
7577
7400
6802
6785
7050
7210
7357
7570
7400
-5
unch
-5
-13
-12
Last Chge
28260 +5O
28830 +l7O
29240 +lBO
29200 -410
1.1000
1.0925
1.1000
1.1005
1.0833
1.1658
1.0674
1.0961
1.0185
1.0099
0.1763
Dec.-Feb. Dec.-Feb. % chg
1998/99 1999/00 year ago
—Million Pounds—
39,586
39,246
5,140
1,116
45,502
7,795
65
37,642
305.2 330.9 7.1%
807.2 867.2 6.3%
1,044.2 1,145.5 8.5%
198.1 140.8 -29.8%
NA NA NA
Prev.
Volume
4447
2522
1595
490
652
2J4
133
Prev.
Open_lnt
25214
17793
11387
6558
5079
1413
413
30
Prev.
Open_lnt
37375
41024
22387
8372
4239
4300
2473
Prev.
Volume
6733
3466
1569
382
90
83
&
Prev.
Openjnt
2290
559
216
Prev.
Volume
883
208
92
1.0750
1.1030
1.0688
1.0975
1.0525
1.0250
1.0809
1.0986
1.0840
1.0090
0.1770
1.0723
1.0985
1.0529
1.0102
0.1766
41,687
41.353
5,992
1,012
48,357
8,305
4.2%
16.6%
-9.3%
6.5%
272.3%
4.6%
242
39,810
•4.1%
5.3%