Al6-Lancasw Farming, Saturday, Hay 6, 2000
GRAIN. CATTLE. HOG.
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday. May 4,2000
Com
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 4 May
Symbol:C
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
MAY 00
JUL 00
SEP 00
NOV 00
DEC 00
JAN 01
MAR 01
MAY 01
JUL 01
SEP 01
DEC 01
DEC 02
Total
05/03/00
Soybeans
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 4 May
Symbol:S
05/04/00 MAY 00
05/04/00 JUL 00
05/04/00 AUG 00
05/04/00 SEP 00
05/04/00 NOV 00
05/04/00 JAN 01
05/04/00 MAR 01
05/04/00 MAY 01
05/04/00 JUL 01
05/04/00 NOV 01
Total
05/03/00
Oats
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:o
05/04/00 MAY 00
05/04/00 JUL 00
05/04/00 SEP 00
05/04/00 DEC 00
05/04/00 MAR 01
05/04/00 MAY 01
Total
05/03/00
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
April 28,2000
USDA Releases 2000
Forecast
-Milk supply up 2.9 percent
from 99
-Consumption up 3.1 percent
from 99
-Class 111 price down $1.63
from 99
The dairy commodity markets
were relatively stable this week at
the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange. Prices for barrels
remained steady at $l.lO per
pound, a full three cents above the
support price. Prices for 40-
pound blocks declined, however,
from $l.ll per pound on
Monday, April 24 to $1.0975 by
Friday, April 28. The support
price for blocks is $l.lO per
pound. USDA reported strong
demand for process cheese.
People are firing up their grills
and summer tourist areas are
preparing for Memorial Day
weekend.
Butter was a big surprise this
week at the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange. Grade AA butter rose
High
2454
2544
2624
2634
2704
2710
2780
2800
2840
2700
2724
2704
Open
2412
2504
2580
2620
2670
2704
2742
2800
2840
2700
2710
2704
Volume Open_lnt
170072 500820
Volume Open_lnt
81912 196164
Thursday, 4 May
Open
1320
1284
1304
1364
1410
High
1324
1290
1312
1364
1410
1434
Volume Open_lnt
3419 18802
from $1.06 per pound on
Monday, to $l.OB on Wednesday,
and $l.ll by Friday. USDA
reports that many market
watchers were surprised that
butter would rebound so quickly
after the Easter holiday period.
Cream supplies are readily
available and churning is
seasonally active.
USDA’s Economic Research
Service (ERS) released a revised
forecast for 2000 in the latest
Livestock, Dairy and Poultry
Situation and Outlook report.
USDA used relatively
conservative figures for the
general economy, with Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growing
at an annual rate of 3.8 percent.
The Commerce Department’s
Bureau of Economic Analysis just
released an advance annual
estimate of GDP for the first
quarter of 2000 at 5.4 percent.
USDA may have to improve their
forecast of the U.S. economy.
USDA also forecasted an average
inflation rate of 2.5 percent and
an unemployment rate of 4.0.
USDA is predicting that milk
production in 2000 will be 167.4
billion pounds, up 2.9 percent
Low
2390
2484
2560
2620
2644
2700
2714
2764
2794
2690
2710
2704
Last
2422
2502
2576
2622
2662
2700
2736
2780
2806
2692
2716
2704
Chge
+4
Chge
+2
+2
+ 2
Last
5610
5722
5750
5772
5832
5876
5964
5964
6000
5880
Low
1314
1270
1300
1344
1410
1434
Chge
Last
1320
1272
1302
1350
1410
1434
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 4 May
Date
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/03/00 15958 119297
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 4 May
Date
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
05/04/00
Composite
05/03/00
Lumber
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 4 May
-6
-40
-14
-34
-14
-80
Date
05/04/00 May 00 29200 29200 28400
05/04/00 JulOO 29770 29810 29420
05/04/00 Sep 00 30100 30130 29700
05/04/00 Nov 00 29750 29880 29620
05/04/00 Jan 01 31500 31600 30900
Composite Volume Open_lnt
05/03/00 1661 3091
Table 1. USDA Forecast of Milk Supply and Demand
-2
-10
-6
-10
-4
-2
Milk cows (1000)
Milk per cow (lbs)
Milk production (bil lbs)
Commercial use (bil lbs)
milk fat basis
skim solids basis
Net removals (bil lbs)
milk fat basis
skim solids basis
Prices ($/cwt)
All-milk
BFP/Class HI
Macroeconomic information:
GDP (bil 1996 dol)
CPI-U (annual rate, %)
Unemployment (%)
1/ Used the average of the high and low for prices in 2000
Pou,lTy “ and USDA ' ERS,
from a year ago. The number of
cows on farms is expected to
remain unchanged. Cow numbers
grew significantly the first quarter
of 2000 compared to the 4th
quarter of 1999. However, cow
numbers are expected to decline
significantly throughout the year.
Milk production per cow is
expected to grow at an annual rate
of 2.9 percent in 2000 relative to a
year ago.
Thus USDA is expecting a
Open
6900
6895
7187
7367
7477
7690
7550
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
Open
7340
7230
6820
6000
5775
5770
5620
6390
JunOO
JulOO
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
Volume Openjtat
9667 65468
Open High
major adjustment in the number
of cows on farms beginning the
second quarter of the year and
continuing through the 4th
quarter. Cow numbers are to drop
from 9.186 million head the first
quarter of 2000 to 9.120 by the
4th quarter.
Consumption of milk and dairy
products on a milkfat basis is
expected to increase 3.1 percent
in 2000, slightly higher than the
growth in the milk supply.
Last
Low
6905
6922
7205
7352
7490
7687
7547
6865
6895
7172
7340
7455
7675
7537
Last
Low
Last
Low
28560
29450
29740
29620
30900
1998
1999
9,154
17,189
157.3
9,156
17,771
162.7
159.8
155.9
164.9
157.6
0.4
4.0
0.3
6.5
15.43
14.20
14.38
12.43
8,516
1.5
4.5
8,861
2.6
4.2
Prev.
Chge Volume
+l5 8520
+7 4116
+8 1768
-18 818
+8 136
-5 156
-3 383
Prev.
Chge
Volume
5389
1620
1553
566
363
148
26
Prev.
Chge
Volume
672
822
156
10
-390
-390
-340
-90
-100
Forecast Change
2000 from 99
9,155 -1
18,280 509
167.4 5
170.0
163.5
0.7
7.9
0.4
1.4
12.65
10.80
-1.73
-1.63
9,198
2.5
4.0
-1.63
NA
NA
Clearly this will result in lower
stocks by the end of 2000. And,
net removals of dairy products on
a skim solids basis is to increase
21.5 percent in 2000. Most of
this will likely be in the form of
nonfat dry milk.
So what impact is this likely to
have on milk prices? USDA is
forecasting an average Class 111
price of $lO.BO per cwt for 2000.
(Turn to Pago A4l)
Prev.
Qpen_lnt
1 53970
30281
18968
7522
3547
4075
843
Prev.
Openjtat
33513
11097
10131
5534
3936
1039
194
24
Prev.
Openjnt
1074
1590
325
98
% chng
from 99
0.0%
2.9%
2.9%
3.1%
3.7%
133.3%
21.5%
-12.0%
-13.1%
3.8%
NA
NA