Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, April 29, 2000
GRAIN, CATTLE. HOG
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, April 27,2000
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 April
Com
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
Total
04/26/00
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 April
Soybeans
04/27/00 MAY 00
04/27/00 JUL 00
04/27/00 AUG 00
04/27/00 SEP 00
04/27/00 NOV 00
04/27/00 JAN 01
04/27/00 MAR 01
04/27/00 MAY 01
04/27/00 JUL 01
04/27/00 NOV 01
Total
04/26/00
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 April
Oats
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
MAY
JUL
SEP
DEC
MAR
MAY
Total
04/26/00
Table 1. Dairy Stocks in Cold Storage
Mar 31 Feb 29 Mar 31 % chng
1999 2000 2000 year ago
1000 Pounds
Dairy Products
Butter, total
(Government owned)
Natural Cheese
American, total 467,663
(Government owned) 35
Swiss 13,538
Other natural cheese 163,850
Total natural cheese 645,051
Source • USDA, Cold Storage Report.
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
April 21,2000
rch milk production
■Number of cows on form
ontinites to erov
-America
'ii cheese stocks m
13 4 net tent
USDA issued two impoitant
reports this week The first was
the milk production repoit
icleased on Monday It showed
milk production m March for 20
major dairy states grew 3 8
pei cent over a year ago. It also
showed the number of cows on
farms continued to grow from the
prior month The second report
was the cold storage report
released on Thursday It showed
stocks of American cheese and
total cheese as of March 31, 2000
were up 13 percent from a year
ago.
Volume Open_Znt
100941 470276
Volume Open_Znt
66311 194307
High
1252
1230
1256
1300
1350
1372
Open
1252
1226
1250
1300
Volume Open_lnt
1800 18425
108,441 88,899 97,206 -10.4%
181 383 339 87.3%
Both reports had a bearish
impact on market outlook. In
other words, milk production
continues to grow, cheese
continues to stockpile, and the
outlook for milk prices remains
pessimistic
March milk pioduction in 20
major dairy states totaled 12.7
billion pounds, up 3 8 percent
from a year ago. February
revised production was 11 7
billion pounds, up 8.2 percent
from a year ago. February milk
production revised for leap year
was up an adjusted 4.5 percent on
a per day basis
Production per cow m March
averaged 1,634 pounds, 49
pounds above a year ago. And
the number of cows on farms m
20 major dairy states was 7.77
(Turn to Page A 32)
Last
1240
1222
1242
1290
1350
1372
Low
1234
1212
1240
1284
1350
1372
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
530,151
515,338
10,365
186,740
727,256
10,487
182,525
708,350
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 April
Date
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
Composite Volume
04/26/00 8165
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 April
Date
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
04/27/00
Composite Volume
04/26/00 11374
Lumber
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 April
Date
04/27/00 May 00 30370 30450
04/27/00 JulOO 31110 31130
04/27/00 Sep 00 30970 31070
04/27/00 Nov 00 30580 30650
04/27/00 Jan 01 0 30500
Chga
-12
-6
-6
-10
-4
-10
Composite Volume Openjnt
04/26/00 983 3267
Table 2 Forecast of Product Price Averages, 2-week and Monthly Averages for 2000, $/lb.
Butter Nonfat Dry Milk Cheese Dry Whey
2-week Monthly 2-week Monthly 2-week Monthly 2-week Monthly
Jan 0 9220 0 8820 1 0125 10115
Feb 0.8768 0.9002 1 0114 1,0106
Mar 0.9105 0.9501 1.0104 1 0094
Apr 1/ 0.9331 1.0570 1 0098 1.0077
May 1/ 1 0618 1.0500 1.0096 1 0085
Jun 1/ 1 0500 1.0500 1.0085 1,0085
Jul 1/ 1 0500 1 0500 1.0085 1.0085
Aug 1/ 1 0500 1 0500 1 0085 1.0085
Sep 1/ 1 0500 1 0500 1.0085 1.0085
Oct 1/ 1 0500 1.0500 1 0085 1.0085
Novi/ 1 0500 0 9500 1.0085 1 0085
Dec 1/ 0 9500 0 8500 1 0085 1 0085
Source http.V/www ams usda gov/dairy/fmor_announce htm
1/ Forecast for April through December 2000
Forecast provided by Ken Bailey, Penn State University, April 21. 2000,
13.4%
62.9%
-23.4%
14.0%
12.7%
Table 3 Forecast of Component Prices, Advance and Mobthly Average Prices for 2000, $/lb
Butterlat Nonfat Solids Protein Other Solids
Advance Monthly Advance Monthly Advance Monthly Advance Monthly
Jan 09854 09366 0 8583 0 8574 20198 2 1677 00517
Feb 0 9302 0 9588 0 8573 0 8565 2 2372 1 9849 0 0505
Mar 09713 1 0196 0 8563 0 8553 19747 19160 0 0444
Apr 1/ 0 9989 11500 0 8557 0 8536 19356 17336 0 0414
May 1/ 11559 11415 0 8555 0 8544 17220 18190 00417
Jun 1/ 11415 1 1415 0 8544 0 8544 1.8190 2 0711 00393
Jul 1/ 11415 11415 08544 0 8544 2 0711 2 4140 0 0444
Aug 1/ 11415 11415 08544 0 8544 24140 2 6713 0 0444
Sep 1/ 11415 11415 0.8544 0 8544 2 5855 2 7570 00511
Oct 1/ 11415 1.1415 08544 0 8544 2 7570 2 7570 00511
Novi/ 11415 10195 0 8544 0 8544 2 7570 2 6560 0 0511
Dec 1/ 1 0195 0 8976 0 8544 0 8544 2 7417 2 6834 00511
Note' the advance prices are for the applicable month, not for the month they arc announced in
Source http./Avww ams usda gov/dairy/fmor_announce htm
1/ Foiecast for April through December 2000
Forecast piovided by Ken Bailey, Penn State University, April 21, 2000
Open High
7742 7765
7440 7490
6995 7055
6195 6235
5922 5970
5945 5945
5700 5705
6520 6520
Jun 00
JulOO
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
Open_lnt
66456
Open High
7420 7420
6975 6975
6970 6970
7222 7225
7375 7377
7485 7485
7677 7677
Apr 00
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Open_lnt
121101
Open High
Chge
Last
Low
-42
+8
+4O
+25
-23
unch
unch
Chge
Last
Low
-35
-32
7397
6940
6952
7210
7357
7467
7670
7392
6937
6942
7207
7355
7465
7665
Chge
Last
Low
-490
-190
-180
-60
-300
29790
30780
30700
30410
30500
29780
30700
30630
30400
30500
1.1268
1.1696
1 1084
1.1073
1.1036
1.1265
1.2000
1 3000
1.3500
1.4000
1.4000
1 3500
Prev.
Open_lnt
35545
11013
9937
5135
3696
939
166
24
Prev.
Volume
4548
1670
968
660
307
10
Prev.
Open_lnt
3583
57827
27789
17512
7186
3368
3834
Prev.
Volume
1783
6063
1823
1136
431
89
49
Prev.
Open_lnt
1773
1172
230
88
Prev.
Volume
541
397
34
10
1 1517
1 1067
1 1093
1.1048
1.1265
1.2000
1.3000
1 3750
1.4000
1 4000
1 3250
1 2875
0.1870
0 1859
0.1800
0 1771
0 1774
0.1750
0 1800
0 1800
0.1865
0.1865
0 1865
0 1865
0 1857
0.1788
0 1782
0.1766
0 1750
0 1800
0 1800
0 1865
0 1865
0 1865
0 1865
0 1865
0 0503
0 0432
0 0426
0 0409
0 0393
0 0444
0 0444
0 0511
00511
0 0511
0 0511
0 0511