Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, April 22, 2000
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, April 20,2000
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 20 April
Symbol:C
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
Total
04/19/00
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:O
04/20/00 MAY 00
04/20/00 JUL 00
04/20/00 SEP 00
04/20/00 DEC 00
04/20/00 MAR 01
04/20/00 MAY 01
Total
04/19/00
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:S
04/20/00 MAY
04/20/00 JUL
04/20/00 AUG
04/20/00 SEP
04/20/00 NOV
04/20/00 JAN
04/20/00 MAR
04/20/00 MAY
04/20/00 JUL
04/20/00 NOV
Total
04/19/00
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
April 14,2000
U.S. Economy Sends
Mixed Signals
-Inflation index (CPI-U) up in
Match
-Wholesale inflation measure
(PPI) mote moderate
-Cheese and butter
show further weakness
There is little news this week
that will alter the outlook for
depressed milk prices. The milk
production report for March will
be released Monday next week.
Also, the cold storage report due
Thursday will report cheese
stocks.
Two reports were released this
week, however, regarding the
strength of the overall economy.
That is very important to the U.S.
dairy industry as it has a direct
affect on demand. The first report
issued on Thursday was for the
March Producer Price Index.
That index, known as the PPI,
reflects a broad measure of the
wholesale price for finished
goods. It measures inflation at
the wholesale level. The second
report, issued today, was on the
March Consumer Price Index
(CPI). The CPI is a much
watched barometer for retail
inflation.
Volume Open_lnt
72169 493533
Thursday, 20 April
High
1266
1240
1252
1294
1344
1376
Open
1254
1216
1230
1292
1340
Volume Open_lnt
2051 17963
- Thursday, 20 April
Volume Open_lnt
47909 194852
Inflation is bad news for the
U.S. dairy industry. If inflation
goes up, so also will interest rates.
The higher the interest rates, the
less money consumers have in
their pockets to spend eating out
and buying milk and dairy
products.
The PPI report released by the
U.S. Department of Labor
(http://www.bls.gov/news.release/
ppi.nro.htm) indicates March
wholesale prices, seasonally
adjusted, rose a strong 1.0
percent. Most of that increase
was driven by high energy prices.
However the core PPI rate, after
removing volatile energy and
food prices, rose a more modest
0.1 percent. The core rate met
analyst expectations and cooled
inflationary fears.
prices
The CPI report, however, did
little to allay fears of inflation.
The March consumer price index
for urban consumers (CPI-U),
seasonally adjusted, rose 0.7
percent
http://stats.bls.gOv/news.release/p
df/cpi.pdf). That is stronger than
the 0.5 percent increase in
February. For the 12-month
period ended March 2000, the
CPI-U was up 3.7 percent. Rising
energy costs accounted for more
than half the rise in the CPI for
the second consecutive month.
Again, the CPI is the federal
Chge
Last
1256
1232
1240
1294
1344
1376
Low
1244
1214
1230
1290
1340
1376
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of Thursday, 20 April
Date
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00'
04/20/00
Composite Volume Open_lnt
04/19/00 8384 72117
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
04/20/00
+ 6
+ 10
+ 10
+4
-4
-4
Composite Volume
04/19/00 18210
Lumber
Daily Prices As of
Date
04/20/00 May 00 30390 30450
04/20/00 JulOO 30960 31030
04/20/00 Sep 00 31020 31100
04/20/00 Nov 00 30700 30750
04/20/00 Jan 01 0 31150
Composite Volume Open_lnt
04/19/00 944 3302
Expenditure
Category
All Items
Food and Beverages
Housing
Apparel
Transportation
Medical Care
Recreation
Education and
Communication
Other goods and
Services
Special Indexes
Energy
Food
All Items less food
and energy
Source: http://stats.bls.go
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages
14-Apr-00 7-Apr-00 31-Mar-00 24-Mar-00 17-Mar-OO
Cheese:
500 lb. barrels
40-lb. blocks
Nonfat dry milk;
Extra Grade
Grade A
Butter:
Grade AA 1.0525 1.1008 1.1092 1 0392 0.9800
Source: Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA
(http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/weekly.htm).
Open High
7605
7285
6920
6110
5865
5930
5705
Jun 00
Jul 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
- Thursday, 20 April
Open High
7410 7410
6955 6955
6955 6955
7230 7230
7357 7357
7447 7447
7650 7650
Apr 00
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Open_lnt
121059
Thursday, 20 April
Open High
Seasonally Adjusted
Changes from preceding month
• 1999 2000
Oct. Nov Dec. Jan. Feb Mar.
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7
0.2 0.2 0.1 0 0.4 0.1
0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4
0.6 -0.4 0 -1.1 0.2 0.3
0.3 0.1 0.8 0.1 1.3 2.5
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5
0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 0.4
Sep,
1.8
0.3
0.3 0.2
/s.relea.se/pdfA
1.0750 1.0825 1.0880 1.0925 1.0915
1.1030 1.1105 1.1125 1.1075 1.1150
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
Last
Low
Last
Low
7352
6907
6930
7215
7340
7440
7642
7345
6902
6922
7207
7332
7427
7635
Last Chge
Low
29830
30570
30840
30310
31150
29810
30530
30670
30310
31150
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0
0.2
1.8
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
(Turn to Page A3l)
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678
238
14
14
-440
-310
-290
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+5O
Unadjusted
12-mos.
ended
Mar.' 00
3.7
2.1
2.9
-0.2
9.1
3.9
1.1
0.5
-0.5
0.6
0.8
0.5
4.6
0.4
1
-0.1
4.9
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
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35566
10777
9749
4739
3634
910
165
21
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Openjnt
9302
55006
26151
16773
6785
3250
3791
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Open_lnt
2007
1018
198
75
1.2
5.8
24.2
2
2.4