FUTURES MARKETS
(Continued from page AI6)
from the Midwest this week under
the dairy price support program.
This is significant since it is the
first sale of block cheese to the
government under this program
since June 1997. The CCC also
cancelled 79,200 pounds of
process cheese previously
purchased.
So what does this mean for the
outlook for milk prices? First, I
developed an outlook for dairy
commodity prices. I am
optimistic that cheese prices will
improve later in the year. I am
forecasting the block cheese will
Table 3. Forecasts of the Class 111 Prices Used in Federal Orders
1996
Jan 12.73
Feb 12.59
Mar 12.70
Apr 1/ 13.09
May 1/ 13.77
June 1/ 13.92
July 1/ 14.49
Aug 1/ 14.94
Sept 1/ 15.37
Oct 1/ 14.13
Nov 1/ 11.61
Dec 1/ 11.34
Yearly Avg. 13.39
1/ Forecasts provided by Ken Bailey, Penn State University,
Bale
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remain at depressed levels at least
until June. Then I expect it will
peak at $1.50 per pound by
October. Some may think this a
bit optimistic. I am expecting
butter prices to peak at $1.05 per
pound sometime this fall.
I then used my Penn State
dairy forecasting model to
forecast class prices under the
federal order system. Those
month-to-month forecasts are in
Table 3. I expect the Class 111
price to remain at or below $lO
per cwt through June. Thereafter
1997 1998
11.94 13.25 16.27 10.05
12.46 13.32 10.27 9.54
12.49 12.81 11.62 9.54
11.44 12.01 11.81 9.50
10.70 10.88 11.26 9.70
10.74 13.10 11.42 10.46
10.86 14.77 13.59 11.47
12.07 14.99 15.79 12.54
12.79 15.10 16.26 13.05
12.83 16.04 11.49 13.56
12.96 16.84 9.79 13.60
13.29 17.34 9.63 12.10
12.05 14.20 12.43 11.26
2000
1999
v y»%.'' ' v s*'* %»’ - ’4» i - r ' i '
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News Conference On West Nile Virus Set
The Progressive Agricultures
Organization (Pro Ag) will hold a
press conference concerning the West
Nile Virus on Monday April 17th.
The press conference will be held at
the Shadow Brook Dairy Bar in
Tunkhannock and will begin at 11:30
a.m.
According to Arden Tewksbury
Manager of Pro Ag the virus became
very prominent in Long Island and
New York City during 1999. Seven
people and 13 pleasure horses died as
a result of the virus. In addition hun
dreds of other people were treated for
the virus.
it will peak at $13.60 per cwt in
November. That should provide a
12-month average Class 111 price
of $11.26 per cwt. This forecast
assumes cow numbers on farms
begins to respond to low milk
prices and the recent growth in
the milk supply slows down.
For more information on
market and federal order data, see
my Penn State Dairy Outlook
website
http://www.aers.psu.edu/dairyoutl
ook/.
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The West Nile Virus allegedly had
never been identified in the western
hemisphere until last year. The virus
causes encephalitis that affects the
central nervous system It is passed to
humans and animals via mosquitoes
who pick up the virus by feeding on
infected birds. Allegedly the virus
came to the United States by
unknown carriers from Africa.
Couple this virus with other
insects and different viruses that are
affecting our woodlands and citrus
groves, and everyone should be con
cerned farmers and consumers
alike, regarding the free trade agree
ments that allow uninspected food
supplies to enter the United States.
“I think its important that live
stock growers be informed of the pos
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Lancaster Farming, Saturday, April 15, 2000-A33
sible infestation of the West Nile
Virus into Pennsylvania and preven
tive stops that might be taken to pro
tect human beings and animals,”
Tewksbury said.
Different government representa
tives have been invited to the press
conference and representatives of the
Native American Enviro-Tech from
Greentown (Pike County) will be pre
sent to explain precautions that farm
ers and consumers may take to fight
the possible virus.
Tewksbury said the Native
American Enviro-Tech is already
working with various racetracks in
New York and New Jersey to protect
racehorses.
Everyone is invited to the Press
Conference.
SdnUAgbi"
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187 Merts Drive
Elizabethtown, PA 17022
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Fax #717-367-6662
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MESSICK FARM EQUIPMENT INC.
Rhtems Exit - Rl. 283, Eliubelhtown, PA 717-367-1319,717-653-6867