Al6-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 18, 2000
GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, March 16,2000
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 16 March
Com
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
Total
03/15/00
Daily Prices As of
Soybeans
03/16/00 MAY 00
03/16/00 JUL 00
03/16/00 AUG 00
03/16/00 SEP 00
03/16/00 NOV 00
03/16/00 JAN 01
03/16/00 MAR 01
03/16/00 MAY 01
03/16/00 JUL 01
03/16/00 NOV 01
Total
03/15/00
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
March 16, 2000
February Milk
Production up 4.5
Percent
-January revised production up
4.9 percent
-February production per cow
is up
-February cow numbers
continue to grow
The U.S. dairy industry
continues to defy economic logic
by expanding in the face of low
milk prices. USDA just released
the Milk Production Report. That
report shows milk production in
February expanded 4 5 percent
ahead of the same month a year
ago, after adjusting for leap year
(one extra day m February 2000)
This growth is the result of more
milk being produced from every
cow, and more milking cows on
farms
The statistics for February
were not encouraging to the dairy
industry since it indicates low
milk prices will continue. The
"market place" has no incentive to
raise milk prices via higher
cheese prices until supply
becomes realigned with demand.
And that realignment process will
have to begin with a reduction m
cow numbers and milk supply.
Milk production in February
for 20 major dairy states totaled
11.7 billion pounds, up 8.2
percent from the same month a
year ago. Adjusting milk
production for an extra day for
leap year, February milk
production was actually up 4.5
percent on a per day basis.
Volume Open_Znt
88252 488734
Thursday, 16 March
Volume Open_lnt
51532 169911
Weekly Dairy Market Outlook
Production per cow in 20
major dairy states averaged 1,505
pounds in February, up 101
pounds from a year ago (without
any adjustments for leap year).
Cow numbers on farms in
February for 20 major states was
7.77 million head, 72,000 head
more than February 1999 and
3,000 head more than January
2000.
USDA also revised January
milk production. It was at 12.3
billion pounds and was up 4.9
percent relative to January 1999.
I computed the growth in the
milk supply in February for the
top 20 dairy states. First I
calculated the daily average milk
production. I used 28 days in
1999 and 29 days in 2000. I then
computed the growth rate using
the daily average milk production
m 1999 and 2000
Pennsylvania milk
production grew 3.9 percent.
Milk production in February
grew the most in the following
states: Idaho (13.9 percent). New
Mexico (10.5 percent), California
(9.8 percent), Indiana (6.4
percent), and Michigan (6.0
percent). Growth m the latter
two states was a bit of a surprise.
Indiana has been gearing up with
two large dairy farms. Their milk
supply appears to be having an
impact on that states rate of
growth.
Milk production in February
grew the least in the following
states; New York (-0.1 percent),
Florida (0.1 percent), Missouri
and Vermont (0.2 percent),
Kentucky and Washington (0.9
percent), and Wisconsin (1.0
percent).
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
Chge
Composite Volume Open_lnt
03/15/00 9306 58191
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
03/16/00
Chge
+4
+ 6
+2
-4
-2
-4
+2
Composite Volume
03/15/00 12333
Lumber
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 16 Maich
-20
-30
unch
Date
03/16/00
03/16/00
Table 1. February Milk Production for 20 Major Dairy States
State
20-state
total
* February milk production to be up 4.5 percent on a per day basis
- Thursday, 16 March
Open High
Apr 00
Jun 00
JulOO
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Jun 01
- Thursday, 16 March
Open High
7280 7287
6947 6955
6950 6950
7220 7220
7335 7337
7450 7452
7700 7705
Apr 00
Jim 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Open_lnt
126406
Open High Low
May 00 33770 33770 33250
JulOO 34050 34170 33630
Composite Volume Open_lnt
03/15/00 1107 2454
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 16 March
Oats
03/16/00 MAY 00
03/16/00 JUL 00
03/16/00 SEP 00
03/16/00 DEC 00
03/16/00 MAR 01
03/16/00 MAY 01
Total
03/15/00
Milk Cows
1999
2000
—-1,000 Head—
132
1,447
158
137
1,496
157
306
125
136
332
120
141
219
135
215
130
246
1,356
248
1,366
7,768
7,696
Last
Low
Last
Low
7212
6887
6902
7187
7327
7435
7692
7210
6885
6900
7185
7320
7435
7687
Last
33590
34060
High
1220
1204
1232
1290
1344
1370
Open
1190
1182
1210
1270
1334
Volume Qpen_Xnt
1469 17887
Milk Per Cow *
1999 2000
—-Pounds—-
1,505
1,404
Prev.
Chge
Volume
3931
4259
538
338
137
102
-47
-55
-25
Prev.
Chge
Volume
5930
4176
1256
749
113
49
60
Prev.
Chge
Volume
633
96
-280
-230
Low
1190
1180
1210
1270
1334
1370
Last
1204
1190
1216
1284
1340
1370
Milk Production
from
1999 2000 1999*
—Million Pounds-
242
2,250
265
2,558
216
456
164
177
224
538
178
195
302
133
323
139
420
1,776
439
1,858
10,804 11,692 4.5%
Prev.
Open_rnt
18963
22898
6076
5563
2837
1540
249
55
10
Prev.
Open_lnt
44852
39787
21009
11365
4507
2883
2003
Prev.
Open_lnt
1709
508
Chge
+ 6
+4
+4
+ 6
+4
unch
1999
change