AifrLancaster Farming, Saturday, January 29, 2000
GRAIN, CATTLE. HOG
&MILKBFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
Closing Bids: Thursday, January 27,2000
Corn
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 January
Symbol:C
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
Total
01/26/00
Soybeans
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 27 January
Symbol;S
01/27/00 MAR
01/27/00 MAY
01/27/00 JUL
01/27/00 AUG
01/27/00 SEP
01/27/00 NOV
01/27/00 JAN
01/27/00 MAR
01/27/00 JUL
01/27/00 NOV
Total
01/26/00
Oats
Daily Prices As of
Symbol:o
01/27/00 MAR 00
01/27/00 MAY 00
01/27/00 JUL 00
01/27/00 SEP 00
01/27/00 DEC 00
01/27/00 MAR 01
Total
01/26/00
Soybean Meal
Prices As ofThursday, 27 January
MAR 00
MAY 00
JUL 00
AUG 00
SEP 00
OCT 00
DEC 00
JAN 01
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
Volume Open_Xnt
16596 125559
Table 3. Dairy Stocks in Cold Storage
' Dairy Products
Butter, total
(Government owned)
Natural Cheese
American, total 407,692
(Government owned) 120
Swiss 11,838
Other natural cheese 97,685
Total natural cheese 517,215
Source. USDA, Cold Storage Report.
Ken Bailey
Open High
2230 2264
2310 2342
2374 2412
2444 2470
2484 2520
2514 2550
2570 2570
2582 2616
2644 2680
2600 2630
2630 2630
Volume Open_lnt
71043 474619
Open
5122
5220
5290
5274
5290
5380
5450
5510
5570
5540
High
5280
5370
5460
5470
5474
5534
5590
5650
5690
5690
Volume Open_lnt
42282 160440
- Thursday, 27 January
High
1142
1200
1182
1220
1280
1340
Open
1130
1186
1166
1204
1270
1334
Volume Open_lnt
1164 16651
High
1678
1700
1725
1725
1733
1730
1750
1755
Open
1633
1650
1660
1670
1670
1672
1698
Dec 31 Nov 30, Dec 31 % ding
1998 1999 1999 year ago
1000 Pounds
25,910 30,184 25,965 0.2%
4 313 223 5475.0%
448,250
9,075
134,397
591,722
Last Chge
2256 +26
2334 +26
2404 +26
2464 +24
2516 +26
2544 +26
2570 +34
2614 +26
2680 +24
2630 +lO
2630 +4
Low
5080
5174
5260
5274
5290
5350
5444
5510
5570
5540
Last Chge
5270 +136
5360 +136
5450 +142
5460 +146
5470 +144
5526 +134
5590 +134
5650 +134
5690 +lOO
5690 +l3O
Low
1126
1184
1166
1204
1266
1334
Last
1140
1200
1176
1214
1280
1340
Last Chge
1668 +33
1691 +34
1718 +4l
1720 +36
1727 +3B
1725 +4O
1750 +37
1755 +42
Low
1611
1632
1655
1670
1670
1672
1698
1755
446,612
9.5%
-85.0%
-29.5%
59.5%
18.1%
8,346
155,778
610,736
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
•1/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
<ll/27/00
01/27 .10
01/27/00
Olft'V'JO
01/27/00
M/27/00
Composite Volume
(/1/26/00 9390
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As of
Date
rj/27/OO
01/27/00
) 1/27/00
"’l/27/00
01/27/(0
01/27/00
01/27/00
Composite Volume Open_lnt
01/26/00 14948 135992
Lumber
Daily Prices As of Thursday, 27 January
Date
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
01/27/00
Composite Volume Opcn_lnt
01/26/00 1317 2817
Chge
+4
+4
+4
+2
unch
-4
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
January 21,2000
Cheese Stocks
Rising
--December
stocks up
--December butter stocks
down
--CME butter and cheese
prices are also down
—December milk up 3.8
percent
The near-term outlook for
butter and cheese prices, and
hence farm-level milk prices,
does not look like it will improve
anytime soon USDA's Cold
Storage Report was released
today and the numbers are
disappointing
Natural American cheese as of
December 31, 1999 was 446.612
million pounds, up 10 percent
from a year ago and down just
1.638 million pounds from
November 1999 levels. Other
Natural cheese was 155.778
million pounds, up 59 percent
from a year ago and up 21.381
million pounds from November
1999 levels. Total cheese stocks
actually rose 19 million pounds
from November to December
1999!
I had hoped that demand for
cheese would have been strong
enough the last quarter of 1999 to
Thursday, 27 January
Open Hi<;h
5660 5685
5970 5990
6760 6777
6590 6605
6395 6435
5915 5917
5700 5730
0 5830
5702 5720
Feb 00
Apr 00
Jun 00
JulOO
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Opcn__l.it
53654
Thursday, 27 January
Open High
Feb 00
AprOO
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec (K)
Feb 01
6985
7207
6940
7025
7250
7355
7432
Open High Low
34200
34040
34030
33780
33400
33110
34200
33600
33380
33490
33120
Mar 00
May 00
Jul 00
Sep 00
Nov 00
Jan 01
Weekly Dairy Market
slowed down, or reduce the
growth in cheese inventories
This report, however,
indicates that cheese production is
growing ahead ofdemand.
There was no strong market
reaction from the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange to the news
since it came after the markets
closed. Prices for block cheese
fell from $1.1150 per pound on
Tuesday, January 18 (markets
were closed on Monday) to $l.ll
by Friday, January 21. Barrel
prices fell more strongly, from
$1.1025 on Tuesday to $1.0925
by Friday.
cheese
It is possible that information
in the stocks report has already
been factored into current market
prices. Nevertheless, cheese
prices don't have much lower to
fall.
Butter prices fell this week at
the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange. Grade A prices fell
from $0.9450 per pound on
Wednesday, January 19 to
$0.8875 by Friday, January 21.
Butter stocks for December 31,
1999 were reported to be 25.965
million pounds, about even with a
year ago. Butter prices remain
low due to more than adequate
supplies of cream and fresh
butter.
The Milk Production Report
was also released this week. Milk
production for 20 select states in
December was 11.9 million
Low
Last
5610 12
5875 -77
6695 -50
6542 -45
6310 -85
5880 -17
5692 -13
581 c > unch
571" +3
Low
Last
6925
7120
6895
7000
7212
7325
7425
7012
7242
6977
7065
7262
7370
7440
6952
7137
6907
7010
7220
7340
7425
Last
34200
34040
33930
33750
33000
33110
34200
33600
33380
33490
33000
33110
Prev.
Chge
Volume
3679
3117
1489
629
226
176
72
Prev.
Chge
Volume
6704
5132
1862
805
335
91
19
Prev.
Chge
Volume
1080
200
20
16
+lOOO
+ 1000
+BlO
+3:30
+5OO
+6lO
Outlook
pounds, up 3.8 percent from a
year ago. Production per cow in
December averaged 1,536
pounds, up 47 pounds or 3.2
percent. Cow numbers in
December were 7.76 million
head, 52,000 head more than
December 1998 and 2,000 head
more than November 1999.
States with the strongest
growth in milk production were;
Idaho (14.6 percent), California
(11.1 percent), New Mexico (8.6
percent), Virginia (4.5 percent),
Arizona (4.2 percent),
Washington (3.6 percent),
Michigan (3.3 percent), and
Pennsylvania (3.2 percent).
The milk supply continued to
grow in excess of demand in
December. In addition, the
number of cows on farms, which
normally declines each month,
continued to grow throughout
1999. Farmers have not yet
received a really low milk price.
That will happen by February
20th. Thus we may have one
more month of growth in the milk
supply. Short of a miracle on the
demand side, milk prices will
continue to be low as long as the
milk supply continues to grow.
For more information on dairy
outlook and federal order reform,
see my web site at:
http://www.aers.psu.edu/dairyoutl
ook/
(Turn to Paga A 25)
Prev.
Open_lnt
13847
22458
10202
3034
2444
1238
386
39
Prev.
Open_lnt
34839
55193
23305
12591
4382
3237
2445
Prev.
Open_lnt
1878
642
219
* 67