AlHancMtef Farming, Saturday, January 22, 2000 GRAIN. CATTLE, HOG, & MILK BFP FUTURES MARKETS Markets Courtesy of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange Closing Bids: Thursday, January 20,2000 Com Daily Prices As of Symbol;C 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 01/20/00 Total 01/19/00 Soybeans Daily Prices As of Symbol:S 01/20/00 MAR 00 01/20/00 MAY 00 01/20/00 JUL 00 01/20/00 AUG 00 01/20/00 SEP 00 01/20/00 NOV 00 01/20/00 JAN 01 01/20/00 MAR 01 01/20/00 JUL 01 01/20/00 NOV 01 Total 01/19/00 Weekly Dairy Market Outlook By Ken Bailey Penn State University January 14,2000 Cheese prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange remained relatively stable this week. Prices for 40-pound blocks were $l.lO per pound on Monday, January 10, rose to $1.1325 on Thursday, January 13, and fell to $1.1250 the next day. Barrel cheese prices remained steady this week at $1.1025 per pound. USDA reports that cheese production remains seasonally heavy and that food service promotions are strong. Other than that, there hasn’t been any new information for the markets to react to. Prices may move next week, however, when the milk production report (January 18) and the cold storage report (January 21) are released The latter will reveal November and December butter and cheese stock numbers. What was surprising this week was the strength in butter prices. Grade AA butter at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose from $0.89 per pound on Monday to $0,965 by Friday. According to USDA, “many butter producers and handlers are puzzled by the recent price firmness recorded at the CME.” USDA further reported that churning activity is heavy, stocks of fresh butter are ample, and demand is just fair. The markets for dry dairy products continues to languish. The government purchased 10.881 million pounds of nonfortified nonfat dry milk and 925,764 pounds of fortified - Thursday, 20 January Open High 2202 2214 2280 2294 2354 2370 2430 2432 2480 2480 2504 2514 2534 2534 2580 2584 2640 2644 2584 2594 2600 2600 Volume Open_lnt 55826 465934 - Thursday, 20 January High 5066 5152 5240 5254 5270 5350 5410 5464 5530 5524 Open 5004 5090 5174 5200 5220 5286 5340 5400 5460 5524 Volume Open_lnt 50506 148995 nonfat dry milk from Western and Midwestern sources. USDA reports that some producers are selling powder at $1 per pound, below support price levels. In addition, prices for dry buttermilk are also depressed due to strong cheese production. The good news is that demand for dairy products last year was strong. USDA reported in Dairy Market News that commercial disappearance of dairy products during the first 10 months of 1999 totaled 136.6 billion pounds, up 2 4 percent over the same period a year ago. I’m particularly interested in the level of cheese disappearance during the last quarter of 1999 We should know these numbers in a month or two. My forecasts for the year are in Table 3 below. I started with a forecast of commodity prices. From there I projected component prices and class prices. If you have access to the internet, you can download this model from the following URL. http://www.aers.psu edu/dairyoutl ook/excel.htm. I compared my Class 111 price forecast with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange 1220 unch 1280, -4 Low 1134 1194 1180 1220 1276 13(40 24-Dec-99 17-Dec-99 1.1500 1.1780 1.1438 1.1810 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 0.8925 0.9050 18-Dec-99 11-Dec-99 1.1498 1.1612 0.8785 1.0067 0.1903 1.1100 1.0913 1.1355 1.1142 0.8879 0.9524 1.0123 1.0127 0.1898 0.1898 Class 111 CME BFP Forecast 1/ Futures 2/ Prev. Open_lnt 15817 18290 8573 2562 1792 984 292 23 Prev. Open_lnt 43757 50192 20320 11030 4073 3128 2438