Al6-LancMter Fanning, Saturday, January IS, 2000
GRAIN, CATTLE, HOG,
& MILK BFP
FUTURES MARKETS
Markets Courtesy Of Chicago Board and Mercantile Exchange
(Cluing bidat Thuraday, January 12, 2000
Corn
Daily Prices As of Thursday, 13 January
Symbol:C
01/13/00 MAR
01/13/00 MAY
01/13/00 JUL
01/13/00 SEP
01/13/00 NOV
01/13/00 DEC
01/13/00 JAN
01/13/00 MAR
01/13/00 JUL
01/13/00 DEC
01/13/00 DEC
Total
01/12/00
Soybeans
Daily Prices As of Thursday, 13 January
Symbol:S
01/13/00 JAN
01/13/00 MAR
01/13/00 MAY
01/13/00 JUL
01/13/00 AUG
01/13/00 SEP
01/13/00 NOV
01/13/00 JAN
01/13/00 MAR
01/13/00 JUL
01/13/00 NOV
Total
01/12/00
By Ken Bailey
Penn State University
January 7,2000
December Basic Formula
Price (BFP) Falls!
-December BFP is $9.63 per
cwt.
-BFP declined due to drop in
cheese prices
-Cheese prices at the CME
weakened this week
-Butter prices stable
The USDA announced this
week the last Basic Formula Price
(BFP) for 1999. =
The December BFP was $9 63
per cwt. for milk testing 3 5
percent butterfat.
The December BFP is $0.16
per cwt lower than November
1999 Farmers will receive this
lower price in their milk checks
after January 18, 2000. This will
be the last time a BFP will be
used in the calculation of Class 111
Prices. Beginning this month
class prices will be computed
under the new order reform.
Table 3. Basic Formula Price, 1995-1999
Month
Jan 1 1 1 9 35
Feb 11 35
Mar
Apr 11 ’®®
May 113
June ]]- 12
July 23
Aug 1123
Sept 11 55
Oct 1 2 - 08
N ° V 12 87
Dec 1287
Yearly Avg. 12 -®^
Source: USDA. ' - ° 3
Volume Open_lnt
180575 441733
Volume Open_lnt
62646 142862
Why did the last BFP for 1999
decline? The December BFP
consisted of two parts. The first
part was the base month price of
$lO 48 This reflected what
unregulated handlers in
Minnesota and Wisconsin paid for
milk used to make cheese in
November 1999. The second part
was the change m the
butter/powder/cheese price
formula. That formula fell $0.85
per cwt. It fell mainly because
NASS block cheese prices fell
8 24 cents per pound and NASS
Grade A butter tell 15.62 cents
per pound between November and
December 1999. See the
following URL on the web for
more detail on the December
BFP:
http.//www.nass.usda.gov/wi/bfpO
100.htm.
USDA also announced the
dairy products report this week.
Butter production for November
1999 was 90.4 million pounds,
down 0.8 percent from a year ago.
1997
11.94
12.46
12.49
11.44
10.70
10.74
10.86
12.07
12.79
12.83
12.96
13.29
12.05
1996
12.73
12.59
12.70
13.09
13.77
13.92
14.49
14.94
15.37
14.13
11.61
11.34
13.39
Low
4710
4790
4870
4944
4970
4990
5050
5134
5174
5310
5300
Weekly
1999
16.27
10.27
11.62
11.81
11.26
11.42
13.59
15.79
16.26
11.49
9.79
9.63
12.43
1998
13.25
13.32
12.81
12.01
10.88
13.10
14.77
14.99
15.10
16.04
16.84
17.34
14.20
Lean Hogs
Daily Prices As of
Date
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
Composite Volume Openjnt
01/12/00 9366 46140
Live Cattle
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 13 January
Date
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
01/13/00
Composite Volume
01/12/00
Oats
Daily Prices As ofThursday, 13 January
Symbol:o
01/13/00 MAR 00
01/13/00 MAY 00
01/13/00 JUL 00
01/13/00 SEP 00
01/13/00 DEC 00
01/13/00 MAR 01
+7O
Total
01/12/00
Dairy Market Outlook
American type cheese production
in November was 288.3 million
pounds, up 6.5 percent from a
year ago. Total cheese output
(excluding cottage cheese) was
689.7 million pounds, up 8.3
percent above a year ago. And
nonfat dry milk production for
human food totaled 100.5 million
pounds in November 1999, up a
whopping 36.0 percent from a
year ago.
Cheese prices fell this week at
the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange Block prices fell from
$1.20 per pound on Monday,
January 3 to $1.14 by Friday,
January 7. Likewise, band prices
Table 1. Chicago Mercantile Exchange Prices, Weekly Averages
7-Jan-00 31-Dec-99 24-Dec-99
Cheese
500 lb. barrels
40-lb. blocks
Nonfat dry milk
Extra Grade
Grade A
Butter;
Grade AA 0.8750
Source: Dairy Market News, AMS, USDA
(http://www.ams.usda.gov/dairy/mncs/weekly.htm)
Table 2. NASS Weekly U.S. Average Survey Prices
1-Jan-00 25-Dec-99
Cheese
500 lb. Barrels 1/ 1.1555
40-lb. blocks 1-1654
Butter 0.8598
Nonfat dry milk 1.0128
Dry whey 0.1879
Source: Dairy Product Prices, NASS, USDA
(http://usda. mannlib. Cornell, edu/reports/nassr/price/dairy/1999/)
1/ Adjusted to 39% moisture.
13 January
Thursday,
High
Open
5500
5730
6550
6410
6155
5770
5590
Feb 00
Apr 00
Jun 00
JulOO
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Apr 01
Open High
7077
7275
7040
7097
7305
7390
7500
7035
7237
7015
7065
7270
7370
7480
Feb 00
Apr 00
Jun 00
Aug 00
Oct 00
Dec 00
Feb 01
Openjnt
130926
22215
Open
1100
1150
1130
1174
1244
Volume Open_lnt
2143 14223
fell from $1.1850 per pound on
Monday to $1.1200 by Friday.
These lower cheese prices likely
reflected the level of November
cheese production reported this
week by USDA. Grade AA
butter prices remained steady at
$0.8750 per pound.
The next major USDA reports
to watch for are the milk
production report to be announce
January 18, and the cold storage
report to be announce January 21.
The milk production report will
indicate whether farmers are
responding to lower price signals
by reducing milk production
levels and cow numbers. And the
1.1500 1.1563 1.1500 1.1780 1.1320
1.1760 1.1675 1.1438 1.1810 1.1470
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300 1.0300
Prev.
Chge Y o i um e
5134
3185
755
125
91
74
Last
Low
.ry
-10
unch
+5
+5
+l5
unch
Chge
Last
Low
7060
7265
7025
7075
7295
7380
7475
7002
7220
6997
7060
7270
7362
7475
High
1120
1176
1160
1204
1266
1332
Low
1092
1146
1130
1174
1244
1332
0.8750 0.8925 0.9050 0.9067
18-Dec-99 11-Dec-99 4-Dec-99
1.1100
1.1355
0.8879
1.0123
0.1898
1.1552
1.1769
0.8777
1.0065
0.1903
Prev.
Openjnt
17282
15434
8057
2477
1709
881
273
21
Prev.
Open_lnt
48711
43395
19607
10146
3546
3091
2430
Prev.
Volume
10345
8133
2144
1190
249
85
68
Last Chge
1116 +l4
1176 +22
1156 +2O
1200 +2O
1266 +l6
+l6
cold storage report will provide a
revised number for November
cheese stocks as well as a
preliminary December number. If
cheese stocks fall from existing
levels, it could help to strengthen
cheese prices.
For more information on dairy
outlook and federal order reform,
see my web site at:
http://www.aers.psu.edu/dairyoutl
oo k/
17-Dec-99 10-Dec-99
1.0913
1.1142
0.9524
1.0127
0.1898
1.0878
1.1238
0.9635
1.0124
0.1910