A26-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 2, 1999 # # __ _
Historic Extremes Define 1998
(Continued from Pag* A 1)
pening within a constantly meta
morphasing social and business
context, that seems to have nothing
really to do with the changing
numbers of the calendar (except
for computers, of course), despite
the drama and hype that goes with
going from the 1900 s to the 2000 s.
For example, two years ago the
general public talked less than
ignorantly about cloning.
This year “cloning" is a com
mon topic of conversation for the
general public.
The practice of cloning
reproducing offspring genetically
identical to one parent has seen
great development It's difficult to
find someone who hasn't heard of
it
Of course, each has his own per
spective upon the events of the past
year, and his own experiences con
cerning the impacts of change.
However, it must be considered
that what has happened did not
happen only to an isolated group. It
has happened to all.
Also, it seems that this year is
part of a true change in the human
experience. It seems it could be
more than people revisiting
history.
It is one marked by vast
advancements in technologies of
communication, information stor
age and transfer, medicines, and
genetic understanding.
And, perhaps more importantly,
widespread access to it
It's difficult to determine, but if
all the technological advance
ments didn’t serve as a catalyst, the
advancements were helped by the
declared end of the Cold War with
the Soviet Union and its Commun
ist Party rule, as well as the appa
rent successes in South Africa, and
the increased global sharing of
desire and definition of a “good
life.”
Instead, peiliaps this should be
considered an historic era the
era of questions.
The lack of a common political
enemy (other than terrorism) for
free-trade partners has created a
new dilema what’s the next
step?
Are free-trade pioneers to
become global powers? If so, then
arch enemies or complicit
partners?
Are unions a quickly disappear
ing animal headed for extinction in
the world of business, or are they
about to explode in support and
become globalized in the coming
years?
Are the current low fuel prices
in the United States dependable or
merely a gracious, but temporary
truss against economic collapse?
Are the record number of United
States' bankruptcies among young
people a sign of things to come, a
lost sense of responsibility for
avoiding overwhelming debt, or
merely a reflection of a public edu
cation and social system that offers
as litde punishment as it does
reward?
Is the longest running period of
economic growth in the United
States a reason to crow, or keep
low?
Coupled with historically low
interest rates, a widespread lack of
personal savings, and other por
tends of long-term economic
weakness, some speculate that the
domestic economic pendulum is
poised to swing the other way,
equally hard and long.
Others look to the boon in
middle-income investments in
Wall Street (through 401 K plans,
etc.) as a solid enough reason to
envision an extended period ot
stable, but slow growth, as the rest
of the world’s economics develop
and stabilize.
The past year has seen further
trade developments under the Gen
eral Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade, and the North American
Free Trade Agreement
For those dealing international
ly, it is too soon to say that globali
zation of businesses is a foregone
conclusion, especially for those
businesses producing and supply
ing agricultural commodities,
energy or other types of commodi
ties linked to a nation’s political
autonomy.
The economic collapses within
the Asian nations and the longer
term trends of power changes
within those communities and cul
tures provides much uncertainty
for free trade and the United State
economy.
South Africa is a growing power
in market development, as are
countries of South America, and
they both seem to offer developing
markets of strength.
In the meantime, not only are
people being asked to learn and
operate under a new set of laws of
trade, they are being asked to con
sider the viability of existing philo
sophical and cultural laws, espe
cially as they relate to business and
self-protection.
More simply, people arc being
asked to decide the usefulness of
their own local expectations of
behavior as they ate tested through
laws affecting global trading.
It raises mote questions.
Does every contract need to be
in writing?
Is it okay to attempt to sell low
or domestically illegal quality pro
duct to the world, retaining higher
quality for local sales?
Is it okay in principle to relocate
a highly regulated United States’
business to another nation, with
comparatively little regard for
labor and environment, in order to
make a quicker and bigger buck
selling back to United States
consumers?
Is it okay in principle for Ameri
can agricultural cooperatives to
relocate operations to foreign
properties, or grow beyond
competitiveness?
If it is okay for a publicly traded
company to do the same, why not a
wholly owned cooperative?
If nothing else is certain, this
seems to be: predictions ate not to
be trusted.
There were some hallmark
events in 1998 that seem to indi
cate possibilities for the next years,
even if those hallmarks for the
United States have been extremes
and suprises.
Politically, 1998 brought an
impeached president, and new
questions about the effectiveness
of elected representation in gover
nement when fewer than 50 per
cent of eligible voters exercised
their rights, and even fewer have
the ability to finance the publicity
campaigns needed to effectively
market candidates.
Partisan politics returned from
thinly veiled hiding during the
year, though it seemed to have
mostly served Republicans poorly,
providing a public perception of
unstable leadership in the U.S.
House of Representatives that
some have described as spineless
elitism.
The Democratic Party didn’t
advance its reputation, neither.
Of those who actually voted in
November, Pennsylvanians re
elected Gov. Tom Ridge handidly.
Casual and pundit talk of
Ridge s consideration as a national
candidate in 2000 for vice presi
dent or president has grown, and
support of that possibility was
given weight when the Republican
National Committee announced
Philadelphia as the site for its 2000
convention. (Various reports sug
gest Texas Gov. George Bush II as
a strong potential presidential
candidate.)
Though alternative political
parties such as the
Libertarians seemed to
dwindle in support since the 1996
presidential election, a former pro
fessional wrestler was elected gov
ernor of Minnesota in November.
On another level, the year can be
expected to remain in the memo
ries of some as the last j car to raise
hogs, or dairy farm, or to own a
farm.
Hog market prices are well
below the cost of production,
blamed on a domestic glut due to
the failure of intended exports.
The National Farmers Organi
zation has recently called upon the
federal government to buy up
excess hogs and use the meat for
public welfare programs, such as
school lunches, public food pan
tries, and soup kitchens.
Independent hog producers
seem to be the most affected, while
those integrated operators with
protective contracts are expected
to ride out the unprecedented low
prices.
The industry is expected to
emerge even more integrated than
before.
Grain prices also dropped heavi
ly, again blamed upon the lack of
export markets.
In fact, to cut to the chase, the
only commodity production indus
try apparently faring well is the
dairy industry, which has been
experiencing all-time high base
prices during the past several
months and very favorable feed
prices.
However, the increase in price
received at the farm gate only
began in the summer, following a
period of low dairy prices and high
feed costs.
That period eliminated produc
tion on many farms, though con
tinued expansions of some of the
herds picked up the slack.
After several months, the milk
price received at the farm caught
up to the reported shortages of but
terfat during early summer.
The shortage of butterfat led to
higher butter and cheese prices.
For a period, the combination of
butter and cheese price increases
resulted in a temporarily strange
pricing situation, where drinking
milk prices didn’t increase, but
manufacturing value increased
significantly.
At one time during the year, the
U.S. Food Manufacturers Associa
tion lobbied the United States gov
ernment to allow increased
imports of butterfat, though the
request was decried by the dairy
industry and denied.
The argument against increas
ing the importation of butterfat
was simply that the current system
shouldn't be changed just because
the manufacturers are starting to
feel the impact of supply-and
demand pricing for United States
dairy product.
Dairy producers noted that there
was no outcry from the manufac
turers when dairy producers went
out of business because they
received below cost-of-prodaction
prices. •
The weather for the year was
ironic, if nothing else.
Growing degree days were two
weeks ahead of normal going into
summer, and continued at about
that pace through the season.
On Feb. 17, 1998, the Susque
hanna River Basin Commission (a
100-year federal/statc compact
with authority over the flows of the
Susquehanna River) had officially
taken the last counties off of its
"drought watch" status. Those
counties included York, Lancaster,
Lebanon and Chester in Pennsyl
vania, and Harford and Cecil in
Maryland.
That concern began July 17,
1997, when all the counties in the
Susquehanna River Basin had
been declared to be a state of
drought watch.
Rain came early and often in
1998 and by the Feb. 19 withdrawl
of drought watch, all those coun
ties received above normal rainfall
for the year.
Though early wet and warm
weather allowed some weed
growth to advance to reproductive
stages before crop planting season,
and some were only able to work
fields late in the planting season,
the rest of the summer growing
season seemed to fair well.
By the second week of June,
com planting in the area was about
complete, soybeans were behind
and 85 percent of the hay was
reported good to excellent in con
dition, but the Pennsylvania Agri
cultural Statistics Service had
already noted a lack of rain.
Rainfall came at fortuitous
times later in the summer, and was
not much concern by harvest.
However, the streams across the
northern tier of Pennsylvania suf
fered low flows during the summer
of 1998 and the Susquehanna Riv
er and its tributaries are in serious
trouble going into 1999.
The Delaware River Basin is
similarly in a state of high concern.
Record high temperatures dur
ing the first two weeks of Decem
ber and drought conditions
throughout the state provided a
false ‘‘spring” for many plants, and
many insects began to re-emerge
from hibernation wasps, hor
nets, etc.
For golf course superintendants
and others who grow various gras
ses with irrigation, it meant an
extended season of growth.
Weeds began to emerge in post
harvest tilled and re-seeded fields,
and that could possibly be good if
the cold kills those weeds and it
results in less weed emergence in
the spring.
Successful antlered deer hunters
were forced to head to butcher
shops immediately, in the near
70-degree temperatures across the
northern tier.
The state Department of Con
servation and Natural Resources
Bureau of Parks banned open fires
and smoking on state forest lands,
while the Pa. Game Commission
banned the same on game lands.
The Pennsylvania Emergency
Management Council, headed by
Lb Gov. Mark Schweikcr, on Dec.
IS advised the governor that con
ditions exist to delcare a drought
emergency for 12 counties.
By Dec. 18 Gov. Ridge had offi
cially declared a state of drought
emergency for those counties
Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Blarion,
Clearfield, Crawford, Elk, Jeffer
son, Lycoming, Snyder and
Somerset.
There are three levels of drought
declaration, according to severity
of diyness.
The first level, a drought warn
ing, carries with a provision for
voluntary conservation measures
and a S-pcrcent reduction in water
use.
The second level is a drought
watch, and carries a provision tor
voluntary reduction of 10 percent
of the water use.
The Lt. Gov. can declare those
two levels.
Drought emergency status car
ries more weight and can only be
declared by the governor.
“My drought emergency decla
ration will allow state agencies to
make emergency resources avail
able,” Gov. Ridge said in a news
release.
“WeTl allow municipalities in
those areas to enforce water
conservation measurers, ban non
essential use of water and receive
emergency water resources. WeTl
work to provide appropriate
resources to assist Pennsylvanias
in areas where we have water
emergencies. WeTl monitor con
ditions statewide and provide addi
tional assistance should conditions
worsen.”
That statement was made before
an attic front entered the state and
began freezing the ground.
Cold air is also dry air, since
cold air can’t accommodate as
much water vapor as can warm air,
attic fronts can easily exacerbate
drought conditions.
Frozen ground prevents any
rainfall from beginning to immedi
ately percolate and filter through
the soils into aquifers.
But reaching historic extremes
in temperature and rainfall during
the year, and ending up being the
warmest year on record, were not
the only weather events of note.
A series of tornadoes tore
through the state the first week of
June.
Gov. Ridge requested federal
disaster aid for Allegheny, Berks,
Chester, Delaware, Lancaster,
Monroe, Montgomery, Philadel
phia, Pike, Somerset and Wyom
ing counties.
The damage was great
In the business world, there
were several additional mergers
and consolidations.
The New York Coffee, Sugar &
Cocoa Exchange ended 1997 with
a record volume of traded con
tracts, and about the same time the
trading company announced its
previous year’s activity, a federal
program attempting to educate
dairy farmers to the use of using
dairy futures options contracts to
manage profits was announced.
The Pennsylvania Direct Mark
eting Association worked on reju
vinating itself into an effective
organization for agricultural entte
prenuers seeking ideas and pro
ducts to help their businesses.
A number of Lancaster area
tobacco fanners formed a market
ing cooperative recently after Jane
Balmer, Lancater County Farm
Bureau president and tobacco far
mer, spearheaded efforts among
growers to take their marketing
into their own hands.
The 438 tobacco growers on the
cooperative, as of mid-December,
were left with a mostly unsold
1997 tobacco crop in storage while
they worked to harvest a 1998
crdp.
The local tobacco auctions
folded, and tobacco buyers, after
picking out the top quality 1997
product and then offering low
prices for the rest, stopped sales
discussions when buyers
attempted to hold out for a more
reasonable price.
Tobacco companies, however,
have been sued by a coalition of
U.S. states' attorney generals, and
face high charges to their business
profits, though global tobacco con
sumption and demand increased.
The cooperative is seeking ways
(Turn to Pago A 27)