AlO-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 2, 1999
OPINION
‘Hit The Wall’
After 50 years of ever larger harvests, the world’s farmers
are finding it more difficult to keep pace with the growth in de
mand as they face 80 million more hungry mouths each year.
From 1950 to 1990, the world’s grain farmers raised produc
tivity of their land by 2.1 percent a year, but since 1990 the
growth slowed to about 1 percent.
“An acceptable balance between food and people may de
pend at least as much on population policy and family planners
as on agricultural policy and farmers,’’ said a Worldwatch Insti
tute official who opened the annual conference of three agricul
tural societies.
The two traditional ways of expanding food production
cultivating more land and raising productivity seem to have
reached their limits worldwide, according to Lester Brown,
president of Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C.
Brown recently presented the keynote address at the annual
meeting of the American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop
Science Society of America (CSSA) and the Soil Science So
ciety of America (SSSA).
Pointing to the slower growth in production since 1990,
Brown questioned a recent World Bank projection of surplus in
the world agriculture market. He said the World Bank had
based its predictions on historical growth.
World Bank economists base their projections on simple
projections that continue an average yield increase based on the
past 40 years, he said. “In contrast to the robust rise of 2.1 per
cent a year between 1950 and 1990, yields rose only 1 percent a
year between 1990-1995.”
Although it's too early to establish a clear new trend in pro
duction growth. Brown said raising productivity to offset the
shrinkage in crop land area per person “may be one of humani
ty’s greatest challenges.”
Brown warned that world grain stocks dropped to record
lows during the 19905. Bumper harvests in the mid-1980s
boosted carryover stocks for 1987 to more than 100 days of
consumption. Since then, they have dropped below 60 days.
He said stocks of at least 70 days are needed for minimal
food security.
Brown said plant breeders using traditional techniques have
largely exploited the genetic potential of what the photosynthe
sis process can put into the seed of the plant. The best hope for
increasing yields is for biotechnologists to increase the effi
ciency of the process of photosynthesis itself, he added.
Further advances in production will rely on use of inputs like
fertilizer and irrigation or fine-tuning agronomic practices such
as plant densities and pest control. But farmers are finding opti
mal levels for those inputs and practices.
While farm productivity is a major factor in keeping pace
with world food demands, Brown cited several other factors
that influence the world food supply:
• Rising affluence As consumers use additional income to
diversify their diets, they buy more meat, milk and eggs. In
China, for example, increased demand for livestock products
has accounted for two-third of the country’s growth in demand
for grain during the 19905.
• Water supply Farmers are facing cutbacks in irrigation
as aquifers are depleted. Brown said China, Egypt, India, Iran
Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are all likely to offset irri
gation water losses with more grain imports.
• Loss of crop land Population growth in cities, often lo
cated in fertile agricultural regions, will take up valuable crop
land. As incomes rise, leisure activities like golfing will use ad
ditional land. Soil erosion, particularly in developing countries,
also cuts usuable crop land.
Maybe we really have “hit the wall” in raising food for a
growing population.
Tulpchocken Adult/Young Far
mer Session, Selecting Hybrids
Starts Early, Tulpchocken High
School, 7:30 p.m.
Penn State Ice Cream Short
Course, Nittany Lion Inn, Uni
versity Park, thru Jan. 14.
❖ Farm Calendar*
.'#s- y ■> '
1 ucsdin , January 5
Solanco Young Fanner Pesticide
Recertification, Solanco High
School, 7:30 p.m.
Eastern Pa. Turf Conference and
Trade Show, Valley Forge Con
vention Center, King of Prussi
a, thru Jan. 7.
Every business has two sides.
The technology side and the busi
ness side. To be successful today
you need to develop both sides.
The technology side produces the
products that we sell to generate
profits. Thus, we must be the best
at what we do.
However, the business side
must also be equally developed in
order to insure success. The busi
ness side involves organizational
structure, supervising employees,
developing and monitoring budg
ets, controlling costs, marketing
products, keeping records and pro-
Berks Dairy Day, Berks County
Ag Center, 9 a.m.-2:45 p.m.
Act 6 Nutrient Management Certi
fication and Plan Writing Semi
nar, Gratz Comm Center, exam
Jan. 12.
Fulton County Conservation Dis
trict Agribusiness Breakfast,
McConncllsburg American
Legon Post 561, 8 a.m.-9 a.m.
Lancaster County Tobacco Show,
Farm and Home Center, Lan-
Family Heritage Restaurant,
Franconia.
Farmsßisks and Management
Seminar, Penn State Campus,
Fogelsville.
Mercer County DHIA Banquet,
Mercer County Extension,
11:30 a.m.
Schuylkill County DHIA Banquet,
Dairy Days.
Franklin County Dairy Day,
Kauffman Community Center,
9 a.m.-2:45 p.m.
Dairy Facilities Tour, Dave Stuck
Farm and Irvin Hostetler Farm
10 a.m.-Noon.
Northeast Tomato Growers’ Meet-
ing, Thompson’s Dairy Bar, 9
a.m.-3 p.m.
Vegetable Growers’ Association
of Delaware 1999 meeting, Jan.
7 Kent County Cooperative
Extension, Dover, 9 a.m.-4
p.m.; Jan. 8 Carlisle Fire Com
pany, Milford, 9 a.m.-4 p.m.;
Jan. 9 Laurel High School
Auditorium, 8:30 a.m.-Noon.
Computer Basics for Fanners, Ful
ton County Extension Office,
9:30 ajn.-3 p.m.
Kutztown Produce Study Circle,
Kutztown Produce Auction, 7
I
p.m.
Pesticide Certification Exams,
Luzeme County extension
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'Jl*'
John and Todd Ishler Farm,
Spring Mills.
Horse World Expo, Maryland
State Fairgrounds, Timonium,
thru Jan. 10.
To Develop Business
Side of Farm
(Turn to Pag* A3O)
viding benefits to employees and
community.
As in any business you must
develop each side of the business
equally. As we start the new year
make sure you are developing
both sides of your businesses
equally.
To Focus On Priorities
With dairy profit margins now
being tight, it is time to focus on
priorities, according to Glenn
Shirk, Lancaster County Exten
sion Dairy Agent. One area to fo
cus on is cost control.
When feed is scarce and you
need to purchase more feed, make
the best use of your feeds. Sell
unprofitable cows and contract
heifers out to a good grower in or
der to reduce feed needs. This will
also make more feed available for
your best cows. Feed a balanced
ration, use good feeding tech
niques and avoid over feeding a lot
of expensive feeds and additives.
Take advantage of lower price
feed alternatives.
I
BY LAWRENCE W ALEHOUSE
I£ ianiBffljs
SFI/
THE WAY YOU CAN TELL
January 3,1999
Background Scripture:
Mark 12:28-34; Luke 6:27-36;
John 13:31-35
Devotional Reading:
I John 4:7-12
I have just returned from my
50th high school class reunion in
Reading, Pennsylvania. It was
quite an occasion with nearly
500 of my 800-plus classmates
and their spouses attending.
There was a sobering moment
when we read the list of those
who have passed away since our
graduation in June 1948. One of
the most recent of these pass
ings was a classmate who, when
I first met him in high school,
rattled my cage with a loud, jar
ring question. “ LARRY, ARE
YOU SAVED?”
I have never been asked that
question before, least of all by
someone I had just met. It
sounded more like an accusation
than a question. My classmate—
let’s call him “George”—was
utterly sincere, however. He
really cared about our souls,
even though his methodology
probably turned-off just about
everyone, including me.
I think I answered him with
something like, “Well yes, I’m a
member of Park EUB Church
here in Reading.” “But that’s not
what I’m asking,” he replied,
“I’m talking about you and the
Lord person-to-person.” The
late-bell for class rang and I was
literally “saved by the bell.”
STILL UNSETTLING
I have often thought about
his question. It can still be a bit
unsettling to me. I realize that if
George were still living, had
attended our reunion and asked
me, “LARRY ARE YOU
SAVED?” He would still not
have been satisfied with my
most obvious answer: “Well, yes,
I’m a retired United Methodist
pastor.”
So how really can we deter
mine who is or is not a bona fide
Christian? George was right;
church affiliation is not a suit
able answer. Neither is: “Well, I
try to live by Jesus’ teachings
and God’s commandments—and
I do a pretty good job of it, if I
To Manage Cow
Investment
Glenn Shirk, Lancaster County
Extension Dairy Agent, reminds
us of the importance of protecting
your investment in cows. They
are your income producing base.
Take a good look at your in
voluntary culling rate, your herd
health program, your heifer pro
gram and your dry cow program.
Take a good look at your man
agement practices. Are you main
taining high production by culling
your problems rather than fixing
them and preventing the problems
in the first place? If so, that is a
very, very costly practice.
Instead, focus on the areas that
set the stage for good herd health,
longevity, good production and
conception. Develop and imple
ment programs for good health,
good cow comfort, good nutrition,
good genetics and for good man
agement of heifers and dry cows.
Feather Prof.'s Footnote; "Do
not just think about it, do it!"
must say so myself.’ No better
would it be to cite particular doc
trines to which you subscribe or
the quarterly statements on
your church giving. Even less
convincing would be a list of
what you are against.
Actually, there is only one
way to answer. Responding to a
scribe’s question about the most
important commandment, Jesus
replied: “...you shall love the
Lord you God...and your neigh
bor as yourself.” One does not
have to be a theological scholar
or genius to comprehend what
Jesus is saying here.
BY YOUR LOVE
In John 13 Jesus makes it
even more simple and plain; “By
this all men will know that you
are my disciples, if you have love
for one another.” Note that it
will not be by knowledge, doctri
nal purity, or religious affilia
tion—but by their love for one
another. “Anew commandment I
give to you, that you love one
another; even as I have loved
you, that you love one another”
(Jn. 13:34).
Please note that the ‘love’ of
which Jesus is speaking is a lot
more than just ‘warm feelings’
for others. The love of Jesus is
not so much about what Jesus
said as about what Jesus did for
us. Enduring unjust pain and
shame, he lay down his life on a
cross for us—the embodiment of
what he taught. He said
“Greater love has no man than
this, that a man lay down his life
for his friends” (Jn. 15:13). He
did exactly that!
This is radical love to which
he calls and commands us: “Love
your enemies, do good to those
who hate you, bless those who
curse you, pray for those who
abuse you... Give to every one
who begs from you; and of him
who takes away your goods do
not ask them again: (Luke 6:27-
30).
So, this question nags at me:
is this kind of love the means by
which the world recognizes us as
Christians? And, if not, why not?
Lancaster Farming
Established 1955
Published Every Saturday
Ephrata Review Building
1 E. Main St.
Ephrata. PA 17522
-by
Lancaster Farming, Inc.
A Stemman Enterprise
William J. Burgess General Manager
Everett R. Newswanger Managing Editor
Copyright 1998 Lancaster Farming