A36-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, May 9, 1998
Dairy Situation And Outlook
By Bob Cropp
Dairy Marketing and
Policy Specialist
University of Wisconsin
Cooperative Extension-
Madison
Milk production continues to
run ahead of a year ago despite
weather related problems in Cali
fornia, parts of the Southeast and
Northeast. California in particular
has faired quite well under the ear
lier El Nino related wet weather.
For March, compared to a year
ago, California reported milk per
cow down .8% (weather related),
but because milk cow numbers
were 3.7% higher, total milk pro
duction was up 2.9%. Reports are
that California is aggressively
purchasing dairy replacements for
cows culled due to weather related
health problems.
Better milk prices and lower
feed costs are encouraging Cali
fornia dairy farmers to push for
more milk production. Other
slates experiencing declines in
milk per cow were Washington, -
0.3%; Arizona, -10.0%; New
Mexico, -4.3%; Texas, -1.0%; and
Florida, -9.2%. Texas and Wash
ington had respectively, 3.3% and
1.5% fewer milk cows,
Florida had no change in milk
cows, and Arizona and New Mex
ico had respectively, 4% and 6%
more cows. As a result, the net
change in March milk production
was: Arizona, -6.1%; New Mex
ico, +1.4%; Washington, -1.8%;
Texas, -4.3%; and Florida, -9,3%.
Despite milk production being
down 9.3% for Florida, milk pro
duction was still relatively strong
for the season, and winter tourist
were departing and lowering de-
1 he Dairy Promotion Committee in Chester County has embarked on another ambitious
program year for 1998. Over the years, the county has been very acuvc in promoting dairy
products through a wide range of programs, and 1998 is no exception The heart of our fund
raising is focused on the “Dairy Wagon," o trailer from which members of the dairy community
sell milk, ice cream, and milk shakes at events from June to October. The committee is always
in need of help, so dairy families should seriously consider promoting their own product by
work mg in the “Dairy Wagon” this summer Contact Lester High (610) 469-12 H, George
I.ombom (6I0) 932-3305, or Charlene Ranck (717) 442-9008 if you can spare a few hours for
a worthwhile cause Your hell
This Spring, Take Time for Farm Safety
With the arrival of spring, there often seems to be more work to do than time available to get it
done Manure needs lo be hauled, fields need to be tilled and planted, and so on Amidst all of
this chaos and confusion, safety can quickly full by the way side or be forgotten completely.
Most of us know proper safety measures; however, often times we fail to take enough time to
use them properly Here arc a few quick facts to remember while completing our spring time
chores
mand, so Florida still had more
than enough milk for beverage
needs and was shipping milk out
of the state to find a manufactur
ing home.
Milk production continues to
expand at a rapid pace in Idaho.
For March, Idaho had 7.6% more
milk cows that averaged 7.7%
more milk which increased total
milk production 15.9%.
In the Northeast, milk cow
numbers were down 0.4% for New
York, 4.2% for Ohio, 2.0% for
Michigan, with no change for
Pennsylvania. Milk per cow was
up in each state (OH and PA 4%,
and NY and MI 0.7%). Xs S a re
sult, total milk production was up
3.6% for Pennsylvania, just 0.3%
for New York, and down, respec
tively 0.3% and 1.3% for Ohio
and Michigan.
Milk cow numbers continue to
be well below year ago levels for
other southeastern states. For ex
ample, March cow numbers were
down 7.5% for Kentucky, and
8.1% for Missouri. Although
milk per cow was strong for each
of these two states, up 4% and
6%, it was not enough to offset
the decline in milk cow numbers.
Total milk production was down
3.7% and 2.3%, respectively for
Kentucky and Missouri.
Milk cow numbers remain
well below year ago levels in
Wisconsin and Minnesota, down
respectively, 1.9% and 3.4%.
Milk per cow, however, was
strong, being up 4.5% and 2.2%.
The net was a 2.8% increase in to
tal milk production for Wisconsin
and a decline of 1.2% for Minne
sota.
In summary, Marchl milk
Chester County
Dairy Milk Lines
Steven Dietrich
Extension
Dairy Agent
Chester County Dairy Promotion:
greatly a]
would be
ireciated!
production for the U.S. was up
1.0%, compared to increases of
0.6% for February and 0.9% for
January. For the first 3 months,
milk cow numbers average 1.2%
lower, milk per cow averaged
2.1% higher, and accumulative
milk production was up 0.8%.
Farm level milk prices have
held at record levels for this time
of the year despite increased milk
production and increased stocks of
dairy products. The average all
milk price for March was a record
$14.50 per hundredweight for the
U.S., for Wisconsin $14.40 and
for California $13.20.
The average U.S. all milk
price has surpassed the $14.00
mark for six straight months. Al
though the March BFP dropped
$.51 from February, $13.32 to
$12.81, it was a March record.
The previous March high was
$12.77 in 1994. The $12.81
March BFP was $.32 high than a
year ago.
With milk prices above a year
ago and the price of com, soy
beans, and cottonseed all lower
than a year ago, the milk feed
price ratio is also improved from a
year ago. The March milk feed
price ratio was 1.71 compared to
just 1.54 a year ago. Hay prices in
recent weeks have also declined in
the West. The improved relation
ship between feed prices and milk
prices is favorable to increase
milk production.
Increased milk production this
spring will put pressure on milk
prices. However, the lows of 1997
are not predicted. Last year the 40
pound cheddar bock price on the
CME averaged just $1.1588 per
pound and brought down the May
BFP to a low of $10.70 per hun
dredweight. As of April 9, CME
40 pound cheddar blocks were
$1.30 per pound, down $.085
since March 20, and cheddar bar
rels were $ 1.26 per pound, down
$.0375 since March 20.
The price spread between
blocks and barrels is now more
normal, about 4 cents per pound.
Grade AA CME butter has held at
$1,345 since then. But with
cheese prices down this much, the
April BFP will likely drop close
to $12.00.
We can expect additional de
clines in cheese prices for the
immediate weeks ahead. Cheese
stocks are higher than a year ago.
February 28 stocks of natural
American cheese were 405 million
pounds, up 6.9% from a year ago.
Butter stocks were 44 million
pounds, up 22%. But neverthe
less, CME 40 pound cheddar
blocks may not drop below $1.26
per pound this spring keeping the
BFP at $11.40 per hundredweight
this coming May.
The spring flush in the south
east has made additional milk
available for manufacturing. This
milk along with some milk from
the southwest seeking a higher
price home have entered the Chi
cago market order area. The result,
has been a sharp drop in the over
order premiums negotiated by
dairy cooperatives.
Over order premiums in
neighboring orders are also af
fected. For example, over order
premiums from March to April
for selected cities are as follows:
Chicago, 11, $2.03 to $1.59;
Minneapolis, MN, $1.37 to $.65;
Des Moines, LA, $1.43 to $.65;
and Kansas City, MO, $1.38 to
$.60. Since these are low class I
utilization markets, the impact on
farm level blend milk prices are
Tillage -
-Be careful of the razor sharpness of tillage wear points and bolts. When changing tillage
points, never try to hold the bolt head with your hands.
-Always make sure a safety lock is in place before climbing under the machine to
perform this task.
Spraying
-Protective Gear This goes without saying. Always follow the label and protect
yourself appropriately.
-Fire Extinguishers - A class ABC extinguisher should be kept up to date and earned on
each piece of self-propelled equipment (tractors, trucks, etc.) but especially on pesticide
sprayers. Many times we realize the toxicity of farm chemicals and guard ourselves with
protective clothes, however, we forget how flammable they can be.
-Clean Wash Water - Always have an adequate supply of fresh wash water along while
spraying
Planting -
-Since numerous seeds arc protected with vanous types of seed treatment, follow many of
the same precautions as spraying
-Never oil chains while the machine is moving.
Forage Production
-Never hand feed material into a forage harvester. The material and you can be taken m
quicker than you can let go of it.
-When unloading silage at a forage blower, always be careful and avoid contact with thr
rotating shafts around you. Always keep shirt tails tucked in, and never wear loose fitting
clothes. Never, ever, climb or reach over a rotating PTO shaft'
General
- Carry First Aid Kits and refill them when necessary. Dirty grease rags in a tool box
don’t count as bandaging material.
- Take small breaks periodically throughout the day. This is proven to greatly enhance
your alertness and work output.
Remember, safety takes a little extra time. However, considering the loses you may experience
if you fail to heed these warnings, it may be time well spent.
less than $.lO per hundredweight,
but nevertheless are a decline in
potential net pay prices.
Bob Cropp
cropp@aae.wisc.edu
University of Wisconsin-
Madison
Average Farm Feed
Costs For Handy
Reference
To help farmers across the state
to have handy reference of com
modity input costs in their feeding
operations for DHIA record sheets
ex' to develop livestock feed cost
data, here’s last week’s average
costs of various ingredients as
compiled from regional reports
across the state of Pennsylvania.
Remember, these are averages,
so you will need to adjust your fig
ures up or down according to your
location and the quality of your
crop.
Com, No.2y 2.87 bu., 5.13
cwL
Wheat, No, 2 2.94 bu., 4.90
cwL
Barley, No. 3 1.85 bu., 3.96
CWL
Oats, No. 2 1.67 bu., 5.21
cwL
Soybeans, No. 1 6.28 bu.,
10.48 cwL
Ear C0m—85.12 ton, 4.26 cwL
Alfalfa Hay —146.25 ton, 7.31
cwL
Mixed Hay 133.75 ton, 6.69
cwL
Timothy Hay 123.75 ton,
6.19 cwL