A2B-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 28, 1998
Analyst Says Top 10 Megatrends In Agriculture Will Continue
VERNON ACHENBACH JR.
Lancaster Farming Staff
LANCASTER (Lancaster
Co.) More and more of the
same change.
Overall, that was the message
from a variety of speakers at the
17 th annual Core States Bank agri
education seminar held Thursday
at the Lancaster Farm and Home
Center.
Core States, a leading lender in
the region, is to merge with First
Union Bank pf Neath Carolina in
April, but is to retain its commit
ment to serving the agricultural
sector, according to Darvon Boyd,
director of CoreStates’ Agri-
Finance Department
About 470 people attended the
Thursday event, which had the
theme, “Taking Charge of
Change.”
Speakers included three agricul
tural economists H. Louis
Moore, Penn State University pro
fessor, Dr. Barry Flinchbaugh,
Kansas State University; and
David Kohl, Virgnia Tech
Polytechnic Institute.
Other speakers included Lynn
Henderson, president of Doane
Agricultural Services Company;
Kate Coler, federal legislative rep
resentative for agricultural bank
ing issues with the American
Bankets Association in Washing
ton, D.C.; Dr. Charles Hosier,
Penn State professor emeritus of
mctereology; and Richard Pot
torff, a chief economist and direc
tor of economic services with
Keith And Helen Masser
come from Idaho The balance
are from other regions of the
country. Potatoes are marketed
to Mid-Atlantic supermarket
chains.
Key potato players. Massers
play a key role in Pennsylvania's
fresh-market potato industry.
Massers can repackage potatoes
and mix shipments to supply
markets even during months
when there's no Pennsylvania
crop. That way, growers still
have a market when their new
crop comes in.
From the beginning, Keith's
emphasis has been marketing.
Potato sales have grown from
$600,000 in 1976 to $lO million
in 1997.
To ensure they can outper
form the competition, Massers
built a 120-by6o-foot refrigerat
ed potato storage so they can
inventory potatoes. And they
installed state-of-art packaging
equipment to pack them fast. A
nine-truck fleet of tractor-trail
ers moves them out for guaran
teed delivery.
Adopting new technology.
"We seek out technology that's
out there, and we apply it early
on," Keith explains.
Keith was one of the first in
the state to install center pivot
irrigation. They also use a vari
able-rate sprayer that adjusts to
the ground speed of the tractor.
They bought two new combines
with yield monitors last year.
Trucks are replaced as they
go out of warranty. Dependabi
lity is a must for deliveries,
Keith reasons.
Air harvesters also improve
quality by separating rocks and
alleviating bruising. A comput-
Doane.
Speakers representing Core -
tates included Lawrence Delp,
president of Core States Keystone
Market, F. Barry Shaw, chairman
of the Core States Agri-Finance
board of directors, and Joseph Del
Tito, executive vice president and
senior credit officer with Core -
tates Keystone Market
The event also included presen
tations by Gerald Boyd, the 1997
Lancaster County superior
achievement winner, who spoke
on 4-H opportunities for preparing
youth to be able to set and accom
plish goals for themselves and for
their community; and Kendra
Weaver, Lancaster Country FFA
vice president, and county poultry
ambassador, who talked about the
FFA, and how the next generation
is preparing to take over family
farming and how the definition of
the family farm is changing.
Henderson, president of Doane,
provided his list of “The 10 Megat
rends of Agriculture.”
Doane is an Ohio-based infor
mation and consulting business,
founded in 1919, that is known for
its newsletters and publications.
Henderson said that since
accepting the assignment of pre
paring for the talk, he did a lot of
research.
After several conferences with
Doane economists, reviews of
research, visiting with USDA and
other policy makers, as well as
executives and leading agricultural
leaders, he said he arrived at what
(Continued from Pag* A2O)
enzed potato planter allows
them to adjust spacing and easi
ly vary fertilizer rates.
Helen has kept accounting
records on computer since the
early 'Bos. Six office computers
are currently networked.
Construction will begin this
spring on as 3 million building
and potato packaging machinery
expansion that will handle pro
jected production 10 years from
now. The new packing house
should be in operation by May
1999.
A large land base. Massers'
operation has grown to more
than 2,600 acres owned and
rented. Besides potatoes, they
raise 920 acres of corn, 250 acres
of soybeans, 400 acres of wheat,
and 50 acres of oats and rye.
Their three-year rotation is
part of an Integrated Pest
Management program to help
combat Colorado potato beetle.
It includes potatoes, cover-crop
rye, no-till com, no-till wheat
and cover-crop sorghum-sudan
grass to reduce soil erosion and
disease.
Beyond the farm. Helen cur
rently serves as vice president of
the National Potato Promotion
Board, and vice chairman of its
Research and Evaluation
Committee. Keith is past presi
dent.
Keith is currently president
of Pennsylvania Cooperative
Potato Growers, Schuylkill
County Farmland Preservation
Board, and Susquehanna River
Basin Commission Ag Advisory
Board.
Their children, David and
Julie, attend Penn State.
New Master Farmers Named
he considers the 10 things that are
shaping United States agriculture.
Henderson listed the trends.
The number one trend to affect
agriculture he said is that the world
will continue to need what the
United States produces.
He said the reasons ate fairly
clear: there are 90 million more
people evety year who need to eat;
diets worldwide arc improving and
higher nutritional demands
increases overall demand for agri
cultural production; education
levels are increasing, meaning that
nutritional knowledge is increas
ing and thus demand for higher
valued commodities will continue;
and intense global competition to
provide those foods to those mark
ets will keep prices down and more
available to consumers.
He said more of the world is
moving away from coarse grains to
foods with higher caloric intakes.
The number two trend, he said is
that farming is to be a riskier ven
ture than ever before.
He said that the Freedom to
Farm Act allows for more uncer
tainty in production. Farmers’
ability to make last minute deci
sions on what crops and where to
plant changes the current ability
for as accurate production esti
mates to be made.
He also said that farm program
payments are disappearing, and
shallow pockets coupled with tight
profit margins can mean disaster
mote quickly than ever before in
an bad-season.
Ron Widmyer grew up on his
parent's dairy farm, then left for
Carneigie-Mellon University
and a mechanical engineering
career. But his career in aero
space design and graduate busi
ness school took a turn in 1972,
due to his parents' health crisis.
The Charles Town, W.Va.,
farmer returned to Federal Hill
Farm to help and learned the
business of running the recapi
talized dairy. Two years later,
Federal Hill Farm was incorpo
rated, allowing his father's
retirement and change-over of
the business to Ron and brother
Todd.
Through the '7os, the dairy
operation expanded to milking
145 cows in a 15-stall herring
bone parlor. Cropping opera
tions gradually grew into the
mid-80s to 1,750 acres of
com,soybeans and wheat, most
ly under no-till.
A 100,000-bushel grain stor
age and drying system was con
structed, partly in anticipation
of developing an ethanol plant.
Widmyer and 20 area farmers
founded Shenandoah Ethanol
Inc., but disbanded it two years
later because the project proved
unfeasible..
End of dairy era. Faced with
urban encroachment the late
'Bos, the Windmyers cut back on
rental ground and began design
ing a flow-through tank trout
production system to use cold
spring water flowing at 1,500
gallons a minute. They
designed, built and still market
automatic feeders patented by
Ron.
Incentive to change greatly
accelerated with the sudden
That is added to by volatile
markets, which can be dramatical
ly affected by production levels,
consumer beliefs, and changing
information.
He said that agricultural price
fluctuations are about twice that
experience by Wall Street traders.
He said that a 3-perccnt change on
Wall Street is considered very sig
nificant. At the same time a 7-per
cent change in agricultural prices
is common.
He said he projects fluctuations
in agricultural prices to only
increase.
The third trend identified was
that fewer and fewer producers
will find that they don’t have to do
everything by themselves
anymore.
He said that the current informa
tion explosion will be able to pro
vide farmers with more ideas of
how they can better compete, and
new professions are emerging that
will be able to provide help.
Henderson said he surveyed
some farmers about their use of
advisors. The results showed that
while 40 percent said they used
market advisors, 44 percent said
they will be using them in the
future.
He said that 24 percent said they
use crop consulting services and
30 percent indicated they would be
using those services in the future.
Similarly, while IS percent use
financial analysis now, 21 percent
said they would in the future.
The fourth trend was to get away
Ronald L. Widmyer
death of their herdsman in 1990.
Four years later, the herd was
dispersed to concentrate on
aquaculture.
Ron explains, "Specialized
farming that more directly
serves consumer interests had
more potential. And we were
able to find exceptionally skilled
people to help."
Today's operation. Of the 850
acres farmed, 585 acres are
owned by Federal Hill Inc. and
Widmyer its president, the
brothers aren't plagued with
"new paint fever," but are tech
nology-oriented and very
focused on environmentally
sound and cost effective prac
tices.
Federal Hill rotates crops,
uses at least two different com
herbicide families, went back to
conservation tillage and does
nitrogen leaf tests on com.
Cropping com, soybeans and
wheat is Federal Hill Farm's
primary operation. Last year's
per-acre yield averages were: 90
bushels for (combined irrigated
and nonirrigated) corn, 55
bushels for conventional soy
beans, 20 bushels for double
cropped beans and 80 bushels
for wheat.
The Widmyers and their
trout operations manager
Marilyn Fauble raise up to 20-
ton processed and marketed
under the Federal Hill Trout
Farm label: The business has
one other full-time employee
and four part-timers.
Eggs are delivered in 30,000
batches, hatched in their elabo
rate spring-fed system. Six
weeks after hatch, 11/2-inch fin-
from having to own eveiything
land, equipment, etc.
He said the high cost of accumu
lating equity through farming
doesn’t make sense for some with
such riskiness in business.
Ownership is not necessary, he
said, and showed a map that indi
cated vast areas of agricultural pro
duction land that is either rented or
leased.
He said 40 percent of United
States farmland is non-operator
owned, and he said he would not
be surprised if the real amount of
land owned by a non-farm operator
was more than SO percent.
He said continued and expanded
alliances and cooperative ventures
are expected under this trend.
A fifth trend is that profitability
will continue to be a function of the
size of an operation.
He said that the advantages of
economies of scales will continue
to drive decisions and operational
design.
Increasing regulation will
require that in order to produce
competitively and to be able to
absorb the additional cost of com
plying with regulatory controls
and oversight, farms will have to
be bigger.
Henderson said the growth in
the size of fanning operations, and
a decrease in the number of opera
tions, has been a continuing trend
for that and other reasons.
He said that in 1980, there were
about 700,000 hog producers in
the nation and that has decreased to
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glerlings are moved to 300-gal
lon tanks, then to 900-gallon
tanks in a flow-through, singe
pass system with a recirculating
loop for adult fish.
Fish production is still a sec
ondary enterprise for this opera
tion. To minimize labor, "We
built and rely on automated self
feeders," explains Ron.
Fresh market trout go to local
restaurants. Some 15% of sales
(and rising) are retailed as
smoke trout and spread, with
the rest sold through grocery
chains.
Federal Hill also raises about
60 dairy replacement heifers
and finishes about 60 head of
dairy-beef steers a year. Ron's
primary responsibilities are
financial management, crop pro
duction and market develop
ment; Todd's are market promo
tion, sales advertising, mainte
nance and irrigation.
Irrigation "insurance."
Underground irrigation pipe
and hydrants on 200 acres near
the farmstead have a two-fold
purpose. A big gun hose cart irri
gates water from the fish efflu
ent stream or from the fish
waste collection ponds.
"But in the 1991 drought,
(the irrigated ground) provided
a 70+bushel yield and our only
harvested crop," notes Widmyer.
Last year's 160-bushel irrigated
average raised the whole farm
average to 90 bushels.
No business priorities. Ron
and wife Lyn have two children,
Nick and Molly, both still in
grade school. Widmyer hopes to
instill in them the importance of
education throughout life.