Page 10—Corn Talk, Lancaster Farming, Saturday, October 11, 1997
Mark Antle
Department of Agronomy
Penn State
An El Nino typically makes
an appearance every three to
seven years.
According to the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), we
are in the early stages of the
largest El Nino event since
1982-1983. The early weather
effects of this new El Nino have
been cooler and wetter temper
atures in some parts of the Mid
west in late summer and heavy
rainfall in the Southwest this
fall.
Scientists are suggesting that
this El Nino could disturb
weather all around the globe
and many governments, includ
ing the U.S., Australia, and
Brazil are worried about effects
on world agriculture.
The El Nino is simply a
warming of the ocean surface
temperature off the coast of
Peru, in the eastern and central
Pacific Ocean. This tempera
ture change in the ocean surface
can cause a shift in the normal
air currents which in turn
changes the rainfall patterns
around the world.
In places like Australia and
Indonesia, there is a tendency to
have drier than normal climates
during El Nino years. On the
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New El Nino Brews In The Pacific
other hand, places like Peru
often have excessive rainfall,
sometimes at damaging levels.
The Com Belt has a tendency
to have better than average
growing conditions when El
Nino events persist through the
spring and summer. In Pennsyl
vania, El Nino effects appear to
be weaker than in the Midwest.
Past crop and weather data
tell us that during 7 out of 22
recorded El Nino years, lowa
had com yields 10 percent
above average. Only 3 of the 22
El Nino years showed lowa
com yields 10 percent below
average. Simply put, we can not
guarantee increased com yields
from any given El Nino event.
However, it appears that gener
ally if an El Nino persists into
the spring it often results in
above-average growing condi
tions in the Com Belt.
In the future, when moie
weather data has been com
piled, forecasters will be able to
relate growing conditions to El
Nino events with a higher
degree of certainty.
Do we know for sure if this
El Nino will have the same
effect as El Ninos of past? No.
A lot depends on the severity
I N
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and length of this El Nino. If
this El Nino turns out to be
weaker or shorter than original
ly thought, its effects will prob
ably not be noticeable.
Sea surface temperatures
that influence the El Nino are
monitored in the Pacific by a
system of 70 moored buoys. To
Citizens Will Pay If Incentive Program Eliminated
EDGEWATER, Md.
Maryland citizens will lose 217
jobs and pay $99.4 million
more for gasoline if an ethanol
tax incentive program is elim
inated in Washington, accord
ing to a nationwide study.
The study, conducted by Dr.
John Urbanchuk of AUS Con
sultants in Moorestown, N.J.
for the National Cora Growers
Association (NCGA), also
found that cutting the ethanol
program would cost Americans
across the country an addi
tional $5OO million in higher
federal gasoline taxes, $3 bil
lion in higher gasoline costs,
and $2.9 billion in lost house
hold income each year.
America’s ethanol industry
has come under attack by spe-
monitor the El Nino effect and
related news, visit the website
ww.w.pmel.noaa.govAoga-toa/
home.html.
With today’s improved
ocean-atmosphere computer
models and an overall
increased level of understand-
cial interests, including Big
Oil, who want to terminate the
federal ethanol program. The
ethanol tax incentive program
is a 5.4 cent per gallon exemp
tion on the current gasoline ex
cise tax of 18.4 cents per gal
lon. Legislation to end the pro
gram immediately is being
considered this week by the
House Ways and Means Com
mittee, where Chairman Bill
Archer (R-TX) has targeted the
incentive as part of the tax
legislation coinciding with the
recent bipartisan budget agree
ment.
“Although ethanol is pro
duced primarily in the mid
west, it still plays a vital part of
Maryland’s farm economy.
ing of El Nino, climatologists
are better able to make accurate
and detailed predictions. As
com growers, we need to be
able to access and interpret this
information rapidly to make the
best use of it in making produc
tion and marketing decisions.
Killing the federal ethanol pro
gram will reduce Maryland
farm income as much as $3O
million and increased gas
prices will hit all Maryland’s
consumers in their wallets,” -
said Melvin Baile Jr., president
of the Maryland Grain Pro
ducers Association (MGPA).
Wallie Hardie, a North Da
kota farmer and NCGA presi
dent, said, “Americans did not
vote for higher taxes, higher
gas prices or dirtier air. Let’s
hope Congress can do what’s
right for all Americans, not just
what’s right for Big Oil.”
For more information con
tact Lynne C. Hoot, executive
director of MGPA, (410)
956-5771.