Grazing Gazette penn: |SS College of Agricultural Sciences in cooperation with USOA/ARB USING COMPUTER MODELS TO HELP IN FARM PLANNING, DECISION MAKING Rabi H. Mohtar and Dennis R. Buckmaster Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department Penn State Computer models serve as pow erful tools to simulate complex systems for the purpose of under standing the linkages and interre lations of the components of the system. These models offer the power to understand, analyze, and optimize these systems where traditional experimental tools fail. During the last decade, ready access to computing power has increased, bringing a bigger need and practical use for these models. Grazing systems are naturally cross-disciplinary; with these sys tems, soil, crop, animal, and machines affect each other in ways that can significanly affect profitability. Such a system is a typical example of a complex set of linkages that cannot be fully understood without the help of a model. These models, in general, are referred to as decision support systems (DSS), since they can help the user make more intelli gent decisions through better information. A typical example of such DSS is the comprehensive grazing model (GRASIM) that link all components of the pasture system. GRASIM was developed at Penn State to obtain a better under standing of the pasture system and determine management strategies that yield more efficient utiliza tion of pastures. It can generate information suitable for estimat ing the financial and environmen tal consequences of alternative HEAVY DUTY HOOF TRIMMING TABLES Endorsed by the International Hoof Trimming School of Wlsconaln r “ ~ • 12-year building experience in • the tables design ■MBSstiMfl • tube frame chute * chute measures 75”x28"x75” high casters tor extra stability • 21 0-inch lift belts • tool box for D.C. pump • 3500 lb. ante vrlttr or without brakes and bamew protection • Saa video on the Hit Table available ‘'SSSr “ upon request • fold away side gate * removable head board . 45 video from International Hoof Trimming |School THREE MODELS TO CHOOSE 1. PORTABLE 2. STATIONARY 3.3 POINT HITCH Berkelman’s Welding RR 7, AYLMER, ONTARIO, CANADA NSH 2R6 (519) 765-4230 dairy management strategies including partial mechanical harvest in the context of the year round feed needs of the dairy herd. In addition, the model can evalu ate the effect of stocking rate on needed supplementation and amount of harvested feed. GRASIM simulates intensive rotational graz'ng systems by accounting for carbon, nitrogen and water budgets in the pasture environment. GRASIM requires input data regarding soils, plants, animals, and management. Among other things, the model predicts soil water level, soil nitro gen level, accumulated grazed intake, harvested yield, and nitro gen leaching. GRASIM simulates four components (grass growth, soil water, soil nitrogen, harvest/ grazing) with a daily time step. It models multiple paddocks that share the same soil and weather information but can have a diffe rent grass species. GRASIM is still under develop ment; funding permitting, it will be outfitted with a user interface making it useful to farmers and farm advisors. The scenarios that could be evaluated by the model are widespread. Current plans are to make the model capable of addressing these questions: ■ How much stored (supple mental) forage is needed with var ying stocking rate on the graze able land? • How much can nitrogen fertil izer application to grass pastures help to economically increase herd size? • How much forage will need to be harvested during spring growth and how does this vary among years and with soil type? • Should I plant more or less com? , • Am I better off with SO cows each producing 21,000 lb milk/ year or 60 cows each producing 17,000 lb milk/year? GRASIM will not solve all the world’s problems, but certainly will help agronomists, nutrition ists. economists, and engineers pool their knowledge in a way which traditional experimentation has fallen short. Development of GRASIM has been a collaborative effort among the Penn State Departments of Agriculture and Biological Engi neering, Agronomy, Dairy and Animal Science, and Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology. Development has been financially supported by USDA Special Research Grants and the Pennsyl vania Agricultural Experiment Station. Lmcßßltr Firming, Saturday, February 24, 1996-A23 Computer (Continued from Pago A 23) The Quick Bamsheet program and Wcstfalia Dairy Plan are not intended to be a replacement for DHIA mainframe computing. Component analysis date can only be added into the reports after die samples have been tested in the lab. Through partnerships of these two programs the dairymen may received action lists (pregnancy COW LACTATION BRED NAME GP L# AI FRESH DATE DAYS BULL DUE STAT 782 0 4 4 6/24 11/26/93 340 8H2205 9/2/94 Dry 849 0 3 2 7/10 12/8/93 328 9H1360 9/14/94 Pre( 794 0 4 8 2/7 1/13/94 292 8H2106 10/20/94 Dry 421 0 1 2 9/17 1/18/94 287 9H1360 10/25/94 Preg 705 0 5 4 7/11 1/19/94 286 9H1361 10/26/94 Dry 993 0 2 1 11/15 1/28/94 277 9H1289 11/4/94 Dry 851 0 3 2 10/18 1/29/94 276 9H138"’. 11/5/94 Dry 943 0 2 1 10/21 1/30/94 275 9H128) 11/6/94 Dry 407 0 I 1 11/17 2/2/94 272 9H1289 11/9/94 Dry 894 0 3 3 9/28 2/2/94 273 9H1289 11/9/94 Dty 875 0 3 2 10/15 2/3/94 271 BHI3SI 11/10/94 Dry 921 0 2 3 7/28 2/11/94 263 9H1360 11/18/94 Dry 792 0 4 3 10/9 2/15/94 259 8H2347 11/22/94 Dry 752 0 5 1 10/7 2/19/94 255 8H2106 11/26/94 Dty 999 0 1 3 9/18 2/22/94 252 9H1360 11/29/94 Dty COWS TO CHECK FOR PREGNANCY INSEMINATED cow CALVING NAME STATUS DATE 501 Bred 4/18/94 411 Bred 10/12/94 940 Bred 7/5/94 494 Bred 2/15/94 892 Bred 2/10/94 452 Bred 2/15/94 712 Bred 1/26/94 480 Bred 7/1/96 975 Bred 2/27/94 995 Bred 3/17/94 461 Bred 5/3/94 500 Bred 4/17/94 936 Bred 5/1/94 473 Bred 6/21/94 485 Bred 3/9/94 COM NAHC 1351 809 1443 303 1389 864 1413 301 1419 302 1438 310 1518 996 1266 715 1398 869 1510 991 1296 733 1914 406 1465 939 1447 916 1450 920 1347 445 1519 410 1297 744 1394 032 1582 500 1478 958 1577 456 1457 922 1574 839 1410 897 1529 411 1527 989 1477 936 1437 306 1309 732 15 c 5 519 Committee checks, dry dates, etc.) and rank ings by test day milk for regroup ing cows. Using these programs gives the dairyman an advantage in making quick accurate decisions. Please feel free to contact Pa. DfflA at 1-800-344-8378, if we can assist with your dairy operation. Examples of Westfalia Dairy Plan reports include the following: COWS DUE TO CALVE EXPECTED DATE BULL DAYS DUE DATE 9/19/94 9H1057 43 6/26/95 9/21/94 9H1289 41 6/28/95 9/23/94 8H2205 39 6/30/95 9/24/94 8H1986 38 7/1/95 9/26/94 8H2347 36 7/3/95 9/27/94 8H1986 35 7/4/95 9/28/94 8H1968 34 7/5/95 9/28/94 8H22Q5 34 7/5/95 9/30/94 9H1360 32 7/7/95 10/2/94 9H1289 30 7/9.95 10/2/94 9H1293 50 7/9 95 10/4/94 8H2459 28 7/11/95 10/4/94 8H2459 28 7/1195 10/7/94 9H1057 25 7/14/95 10/7/94 9H1293 25 7/14/95 IY TEST LAST TEST FAT PROT SCC 2.20 2.90 1 3.90 2.80 3 3.60 2.80 2 4.40 3.00 2 2.90 3.10 I 3.40 2.90 16 3.50 3. OO 6 4.20 3.30 3 4.60 3.30 1 3.20 2.90 1 4.10 3.30 2 4.20 2.60 5 5.10 3.90 3 3.60 3.20 1 3.80 3.50 2 0.10 2.30 3 3.90 3.b0 8 3.50 3.10 3 3.50 3.50 2 4 40 3.30 11 3.40 6 3 90 3 qO I 3.50 3 oO 6 3.90 3 10 3 3.60 3 40 5 4.20 3-20 5 4.00 2.°0 1 2.60 3 10 1