COLUMBUS, Ohio—Produc
ers gleeful over the recent rally in
the markets should hang on to
their hats, because a bigger jump
may be on the way, said an Ohio
State University agricultural eco
nomist
Allan Lines thinks $3.50 per
bushel com prices “may be in the
cards” by the time all is said and
done on this supply-short market
In fact markets are defying the
harvest glut’s law of gravity that
makes it difficult to establish new
highs in die fall for cash and dis
tant futures prices.
“Conventional wisdom sug
gests a ’short crop-long tail’ pric
ing pattern should develop ...
There is a good chance prices will
rise into mid-winter before the tail
begins,” Lines said. “It will come.
Price and when are the questions.”
With current bullish projec
tions, producers can afford to wait
and see before selling because
downside risk is minimal for now.
Lines said. Producers should also
look ahead to price some of the
1996 crop since $3-per-bushel
prices at harvest are not likely two
years in a row. ‘Take some of the
current action in the $2.60 arena,”
he said.
Lines* prognoses are based on
recent USDA figures (released
Oct. 11) that adjusted the national
yield down to 116.6 bushels per
acre compared to September’s
projection of 121.1 bushels per
acre, and is also down from last
year’s 139 bushels per acre aver
age, and below the five-year aver
age of 119.58 bushels per acre.
With total production pegged at
7.54 billion bushels a 25 per
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Ag Economist Thinks $3.50 Corn Possible
cent drop from last year ending
stocks are projected to be at a
20-year low of 685 million bush
els. The last time ending stocks
were as low was two years ago
when carryout was 850 million
bushels, and prices averaged
$2.50 per bushel. Lines said.
What’s different this time is that
world coarse grain output is down
30 percent from last year and
down 25 percent from two years
ago.
“The U.S. is short, and the
world is short," Lines said. “The
market is in untested water.”
For Ohio, USDA projects an
average yield of 122 bushels per
acre, unchanged from the Septem
ber projection. It’s down from last
year’s 139 bushels per acre and
about the same as the five-year
average of 121.8 bushels per acre.
Total production is pegged at
384.3 million bushels, or down 21
percent from last year’s record
486.5 million bushels.
As for soybeans. Lines'thinks
$7-per-bushel prices are possible,
given a production estimate 13
percent below last year’s, and
sharply tighter stocks. USDA pro
jects a 2.19-billion bushel national
crop compared to last year’s 2.52
billion-bushel crop. Average yield
is projected at 35.5 bushels per
acre, down from last year’s record
41.1 bushels per acre, but about
equal with a 35.98 bushels-per
acre five-year average.
“Expect higher bean prices into
the marketing year,” Lines said.
“It’s probably not a ‘short crop
long tail’ situation.”
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mestic crush remains at the same
level of last year’s 1.4 billion
bushels. Meanwhile, a 33 percent
hike in export inspections early in
the marketing year casta some
doubts on expectations that ex
ports will soften.
• Supply-wise, carryout is 220
million bushels, among the lowest
since the 1988 drought That year,
an 11 percent stocks/use ratio'pro
duced a $7.35 per bushel average
price. Although the projected
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KUTZTOWN (Berks Co.)
Rodale Institute President John
Haberem has announced the open
ing of a Composting Research and
Education Center located on the
grounds of the 333-acre Rodale
Institute Experimental Farm in
Kutztown.
“Our two-acre facility is the
first of its kind in this country and
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Haberem said. “Its opening is the
culmination of several years of
planning between the staff and
scientists here at the Institute and
staff members and scientists at the
USDA.”
The Composting Research and
Education Center will serve three
main functions. As a unique
research facility, it will test com
postable materials not. only for
their efficiency and economy
(alone and in combination with
other materials), but also for the
potential impact on ground and
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stocks/use ratio is at 10 percent
the hworld oilseed situation is not
critically tight
• Soy oil price is expected to
weaken, while meal price contin
ues to strengthen. The teeter-totter
effect could add an additional 85
cents to last year’s average price.
So far, USDA’s midpoint average
price projection of $6.75 per bush
el is up $1.30 from last year. Cur
rent prices are at the lower end of
die USDA range: $6.25-$7.25.
surface water of those materials
and management regimes.
A second use of the Compost
ing Center will be educational.
Future home of the Rodale School
of Practical Composting, the site
is expected to draw farmers,
nursery growers, greenhouse
operators, landscape managers,
and other professionals from
around the world interested in
incorporating composting into
their waste management or soil
improvement practices.
“We will offer week-long
courses at the Center on a variety
of topics from production through
use, combining both classroom
instruction and hands-on learn
ing,” said Cary Os hi ns, compost
ing specialist at the Rodale Insti
tute. The Institute expects to hold
the first course in the autumn of
19%.
Thirdly, the Compost Center
will function as the model site for
the Institute’s own compost pro
duction which is used for its Com
post Utilization Trial (CUT) and
general farm production. The
CUT is a long-term field trial
comparing several different com
post mixtures to each other as well
as to more conventional fertiliz
ers. The Rodale Institute scientists
who have been running the CUT
since 1991, are testing whether the
use of compost over conventional
fertilizers or raw farmyard man
ures will lead to reduced nutrient
loss and groundwater pollution.
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“It’s difficult for me, but as you
can tell, my usual ‘bear’ has
sprouted ’bullish* horns,” Lines
said.
As for Ohio production, USDA
projects a 3.6 percent drop from
last year’s 173.6 million bushels
to 167.3 million bushels. Yields
are projected at 41 busheis per
acre, down from 43. S bushels per
acre last year, but still higher than
the five-year average of 39.3
bushels per acre.
Opens
Offering all-weather access and
appropriate environmental protec
tion, die Institute hopes the Com
posting Research and Education
Center will be used by the Depart
ment of Environmental Protec
tion, the Conservation District, the
Conservation Service, and others
to study the economic and envi
ronmental impacts of increased
compost use.
The facility is funded in part by
the USDA’s Alternative Agricul
ture Research and Commerciali
zation (AARC) Center. AARC
supports private individuals or
companies in bridging the gap
between research results anti com
mercialization of that research,
thereby complementing the
USDA’s research agencies. Pre
ference is given to projects that are
environmentally friendly and ben
efit rural communities.
“The Institute is currently
accepting proposals for compost
research projects and collabora
tions,” said Oshins. “We are parti
cularly interested in linking pro
duction and utilization research.”
According to Haberem, the pur
pose of this facility is congruent
with the ongoing goals of Rodale
Institute. “We want to educate
people all over the world about the
importance of protecting and
improving our soil. Healthy soil is
the first step in producing healthy
food,” he said. “Soil not only pro
vides a growing medium, it also
influences the water we drink and
even the air we breathe.”
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