M-Unewnr Fanning, Saturday. July 8. 1995
WHAT is
THE ECONOMIC
FORECAST FOR
POULTRY MEAT
IN 2005?
R. Michael Hulet
Associate Professor
Of Poultry Science
Poultry production is expected
to increase by 3.2 percent this year,
pushing the output of total meat in
the U.S. to 74,178 million pounds,
said David Amey in the April 1995
issue of Meat Processing. The
increase has been largely attained
by the largest companies. During
1994, the five largest broiler com
panies produced 44.4 percent
while the five largest turkey com
panies produced 48 percent of the
total respective broiler or turkey
meat in the U.S. Both percentages
are up from five years ago. This
means that the trend for merging of
smaller companies with larger
ones is continuing.
Broilers
In a recent Meat Processing arti-
Producer
Poll
July 26
LEESPORT (Berks
Co.)—The U.S. Depart
ment of Agriculture has
scheduled a soybean
producer poll to be held
on July 26,1995 from 8
ajn. to 4:30 p.m. at the
Berks County Consoli
dated Farm Service
Agency (CFSA).
Registration and
polling will take place
at the office in the ag
center on the same day,
except for absentee
registration and polling.
Richard Troutman,
acting chairman of the
Berks County CFSA,
said absentee ballots are
available upon written
request from June 19
thru July 14 at the coun
ty CFSA office. Absen
tee requests must be
postmarked or received
in the county office by
July 14.
The poll is being con
ducted to determine if
another referendum
should be held on the
continuance of pay
ments of refunds under
the Soybean Promotion
and Research Order.
Any person, who
during the period Sep
tember 1, 1991 thru
June 1, 1995, has been
engaged in the growing
of soybeans in the
United States and who
owns or shares the own
ership and risk of loss
of the soybeans, is
entitled to request a
refund referendum. Per
sons wanting more
information on the poll
or having questions,
please call the CFSA
Office at (610)
478-7158.
cle, an economic forecast for meat
production for the next decade was
reported by Dr. Gordon C. Rauss
er, dean of the College of Natural
Resources and R. G. Sproul, dis
tinguished professor in the Depart
ment of Agricultural and Resource
Economics at the University of
California, Berkeley. They noted
the tremendous success of broiler
production in the 1980 s because of
the comparative price to consum
ers for high-protein broiler meat,
the production efficiencies and
genetic improvements of broilers,
and the tightly integrated system of
production from hatching eggs
through sales to retail stores or
foodservices. However, they
thought that chicken’s price
advantage would narrow relative
to red meats because of the
increase of value-added poultry
products that will be produced in
the future. The market share of
broilers is predicted to somewhat
stabilize shortly after the year
2000, with total broiler production
expected to increase by one per
cent per year for the next decade.
0% • 12 Mot. s Months
4.9% •24 Mos. OR Walvsr Of
7.9% • 36 Mos. Flnsncal
...Now Available On
Moat Badger Equipment!
Badger Liquid Manure Pumps, Spreader Tanks
Per capita turkey consumption
in the U.S. is small in comparison
to broilers, beef, and pork (19 vs.
74,68, and 54 pounds, respective
ly). However, the neutral taste of
turkey meat, die consistency of the
product, and the relative price
makes it ideal for the further pro
cessed markets of the next decade.
Rausser predicts that market share
for turkey meat will be up and
could dramatically increase if pro
duct acceptability by consumers
for value-added products is
enhanced. Another factor that will
help determine the success of the
turkey industry in the next decade
is the fiscal stability of the Mexi
can and Middle-Eurapean export
markets.
After falling 10 pounds in per
capita consumption during the
19905, demand for beef has stabil
ized. Since neither the price of beef
is expected to appreciably change,
nor is the marketing of value
added beef products, its market
share may continue to decline from
current levels. Rausser stated that
the growing meat market, espe
cially in the area of value-added
products, will leave the beef indus
try behind unless tremendous
changes in the cost structure, pro
duct consistency, and marketing of
value-added products occurs.
Tremendous progress has been
made by pork producers in deve
and Box Spreaders
Badger BNIBS
Souper Trail Pump/Agitator
■ Up to 26,000 GPM agitation capacity
■ Standard 28 foot length extendable to 38 feet for really big
lagoons
■ Choice of cutter blade or propeller options to match biggest
agitation needs
■ Exclusive internal shear bar chops even straw-laden manure
■ Semi-cupped impeller paddles for high capacity pumping
NEW...
From
Your Dealer
out The All
New
BN 104
PUMP
Turkeys
Beef
Pork
l|Sp
m oomblnatlon
gtfhafclt
fW mail
tmm
Hat
loping a genetically lean and con
sistent product The use of brand
name products has allowed pork to
maintain per capita consumption
in the U.S. in spite of the decreases
in “the other” red meat. Continued
efforts in brand marketing, the
genetic advances in lean, efficient
pork, and the move to produce
more value-added pork products
will result in a slight increase in the
meat market share by the year
2000 for pork.
Fish
The last meat commodity
reported on was fish. The per capi
ta consumption of fish has grown
only marginally and will not con
tinue to increase in the next
decade. The major problems with
this industry are lack of a sustain
able supply, the comparative price
of aquaculture production versus
the price for open-water fish, and
the difficulty in marketing fish
farm raised products. Because of
these problems, fish is not thought
Country
North America
Central/South America
European
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Soviet Union
Middle East
Africa
Asia
Oceania
Total
USDA, “Dairy, Livestock and Poultry: World Poultry Situation.”
Washington, DC; Foreign Agricultural Service, Circular Series FL&P 1-93, January
1993.
Badger Blowers
Beat Bottlenecks
Modal
8N2060
to be able to take market share
away from the other meat com
modities like once believed.
Since we live in a world eco
nomy, the supply and production
of other countries will have a grea
ter effect on our meat industries.
The following table lists the con
sumption, production, and C-P
(consumption minus production)
in million metric pounds of ready
to cook meat for world production
areas.
This table shows the potential
for exportation of meat supplies
into Central and South American,
European and Eastern European
markets. Rausser believes that the
significant entrance into these
markets will depend on globaliza
tion of financial markets, the
emergence of large worldwide
trading blocks, off-shore sources
Consumption
13,512
3,983
6,723
226
1,543
2,700
1,163
789
9,431
519
40,589
@ EMPLOYEE-OWNED. QUALITY DRIVEN.
Belt or
Single Chain
Conveyors...
0% - 12 Mot.
4.9% - 24 Mot.
7.9% ■ 36 Mot.
OR
5 Months
Waiver 01
Finance!
Designed (or plug-proof
operation
Unload wagons (aster, Fill silos
more efficiently
Choose from Model 8N2054 or
New Model 8N2060, (or
bigger silos
Rugged, heavy-duty construction
Adjustable shear bar prevents
hair pinning,
carry-over and power loss.
All material goes up the pipe in
the air stream.
Flexible wind guards minimize
spillage.
International
Markets
(Turn to Pago D 5)
Production
14,058
4,323
7,089
165
1,605
2,480
883
775
8,964
522
40,864
See Your
Local Badger
Dealer
HONESDALE SPREADING
SERVICE INC.
SOS Cliff St.
Honesdale, PA 18431
(717) 253-2410
CHIDESTER FARMS
RD 2. Box 75
Kingsley, PA 18626
(717) 289-4260
MELVIN G. MILLER
RT 2, Spring Mills, PA 1687 S
(814) 422-8279
PIKEVILLE
EQUIPMENT INC.
RT 2, Oley, PA 19547
(215) 987-6277
BHM FARM EQUIP. INC.
RR 1, Annvllle, PA 17003
(717) 867-2211
SHOW EASE STALL CO.
573 Willow Rd.
Lancaster, PA 17601
(717) 299-2536
DEERFIELD AG &
TURF CENTER. INC.
RD 2, Box 212
Watsontown, PA 17777
(717) 538-3557
HEFLIN SALES
& SERVICE
12312 Oak Hill Rd.
Woodsboro, MD 21798
(301) 896-3233
CHAMBERSBURG
FARM SERVICE
975 S. Main St.
Chambersburg, PA 17201
(717) 264-3533
SOMERSET BARN EQ.
RD. «S
Somerset, PA 15501
(814) 445-5555
McMILLEN BROS.
RD 1 Box 134
Loysvllle, PA 17047
(717) 789-3961
HESS' EQUIPMENT
Sales & Service
RR 3, Mlttllnburg, PA 17844
(717) 966-2720
966-1996