A36-Lmcutor Farming. Saturday, March 11, 1995
USDA
WASHINGTON, D.C. The
outlook for the dairy industry in
1995 is to expect slightly lower
prices for milk and cull cows,
while total cow numbers can be
expected to decline, according to a
recent report by the U.S. Depart
ment of Agriculture Economic
Research Service.
The USDA’s Economic
Research Service publishes a
quarterly supplement to its regular
projection report. Livestock,
Dairy, and Poultry Situation and
Outlook.
The most recent update of the
Service’s projections was pub
lished Feb. 27.
In its entirety, the report
follows:
’This year is shaping up as one
of rapid growth in milk produc
tion, strong domestic demand, and
(at least for a while) commercial
exports of butter. A modest (pos
sibly small) surplus and only a
moderate price decline is in sight.
Strong Output
Ahead
“Milk production is projected to
be strong in 1995, rising 2 to 3 per
cent from a year earlier.
“The robust milk prices of
1992-94, continuing adoption of
bovine somatotropin (BST), and
generally favorable feed supplies
will support the expansion.
“A 3-percent rise in milk per
cow is projected to easily out
weigh a fractional decline in milk
cow numbers.
“Structural adjustments may be
particularly sensitive to price
changes. Changes in milk cow
numbers in recent years are consis
tent with the simultaneous exis
tence of a relatively large group of
producers on the verge of exit and
another on the verge of entry or
major expansion.
“Expected 1995 milk prices
probably will cause declines in
milk cow numbers to resume soon.
“Declines in milk cow numbers
will be mitigated by a large herd of
replacement heifers and continued
low cull cow prices.
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Dairy Outlook Projects Slightly Lower
“On Jan. 1, there were more
than 43 heifers per 100 milk cows,
continuing the relatively high ratio
of recent years. Stable, relatively
high replacement prices in recent
years have encouraged retention
of heifer calves. In addition, many
exiting dairy farmers continue to
raise heifers after disposing of
their milking herd.
“The increase in BST use in
1995 is projected to be similar to
1994. After generally favorable
initial experiences, experimenters
(estimated to have been almost a
third of herds in 1994) probably
will inject more of their cows.
“Some producers will begin
experimenting with BST, but these
may be largely offset by early
experimenters who conclude that
BST use is not profitable for them
at this time.
“The milk-feed price ratio is
expected to run close to 1.6 in
1995, similar to 1994’s moderate
ly unfavorable level.
“These ratios will provide only
modest incentive to boost concen
trate feeding and milk per cow.
However, more ample supplies of
good forage should help milk per
cow during the first half.
“In February, final estimates of
1989-92 milk production were
released, as well as the normal
revisions of 1993-94 data.
“In general, the revisions did
not greatly change the picture,
although they did imply more
structural change in the early
1990 s than previously thought.
More Midwestern farmers exited
(particularly in the Com Belt),
while Western growth was slightly
faster.
Wholesale Prices
May Slip
“Spring milk supplies are
expected to be large enough to
reestablish stability in wholesale
dairy markets at prices (except for
butter) below current levels.
“However, commercial exports
of butter, large Dairy Export
Incentive Program (DEIP) exports
of nonfat dry milk, and apparently
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strong domestic sales of major
products hint that prices might be
higher than currently expected,
even if milk production expands
briskly.
“Current market tightness is
ambiguous because it may have
resulted either from heavy final
sales, or advanced buying for pro-
UNIVERSITY PARK (Centre
Co.) —A researcher in Penn
State’s College of Agricultural
Sciences is using DNA evidence
to help California authorities track
down a culprit
But this work is not part of a
high-profile murder case. The cul
prit is the Mediterranean fruit fly,
and results of DNA studies may
help California officials to iden
tify the source of medfly out
breaks, with an eye toward stop
ping the pest’s introduction and
spread into that state’s fertile agri
cultural regions.
“California and the U.S.
Department of Agriculture have
sprat hundreds of millions of dol
lars in the past two decades trying
to control medfly infestations,”
said Bruce McPheron, associate
professor of entomology. “If we
can develop genetic ‘fingerprints’
that show us where these medflies
are coming from, authorities may
be able to block their introduction.
“Genetic markers also could
help us to determine whether an
infestation is the result of a new
introduction, or the resurgence of
an old one that had been reduced
to nondetectable levels by eradi
cation efforts,” he said. “That, in
turn, could help us to improve
control strategies, tell us where to
look for natural enemies and
minimize the use of pesticides.”
At stake in the medfly war is
California’s $lB billion-a-year
agricultural industry and its status
as a major exporter of fresh fruits
and vegetables. Should medflies
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lection against future tightness.
“Nonfat dry milk prices in most
areas are expected to be near the
support purchase price this spring.
“Contracts under DEIP are not
projected to absorb all of the flush
season surplus of powder. This
loosening of the nonfat dry milk
market and stronger Midwest milk
supplies should erode cheese
Researcher Uses DNA
To Track Down Culprit
be found in agricultural regions,
produce from the state could be
embargoed by trading partners
such as Japan, costing California
growers as much as $6 billion
annually in lost export sales.
Restrictions on the movement of
California produce, coupled with
actual damage done by the pest,
also could reduce the amount of
fresh fruits and vegetables avail
able to U.S. consumers and drive
up prices in supermarkets.
McPheron and colleagues from
USDA and the Florida Depart
ment of Agriculture have identi
fied genetic markers common to
medfly populations from different
regions of the world. The
researchers believe these DNA
“fingerprints” can help them nar
row the source of medflies found
in California in recent years.
“For instance, officials have
thought that fruit illegally shipped
to California from Hawaii was a
likely source of new medfly infes
tations,” McPheron said. “But
data we’ve collected so far shows
that California medflies appear to
be of a different genetic type than
those found in Hawaii, indicating
that these California medflies
probably originated somewhere
else.”
The Mediterranean fruit fly is a
serious threat to crops in tropical
and subtropical areas where it
becomes established. Medflies are
thought to have originated in
equatorial Africa before spreading
to the Mediterranean region in the
early 1800 s. During the last ISO
Is Here!!!
Prices
prices
"Price weakness is particularly
likely if pipeline holdings of
cheese and nonfat dry milk have
swollen recently.
“Butter prices probably will run
near current levels if international
prices decline seasonally as
expected.”
years, they have spread to South
and Central America, Australia,
Hawaii and other areas, mostly by
hitchhiking with humans and their
cargo.
The pest damages fruit by lay
ing its eggs inside the fruit’s skin.
After hatching, medfly larvae feed
on the pulp, rotting tire fruit and
making it unsaleable. The fly is
attracted to more than 250 variet
ies of fruits and vegetables.
Medflies have been found near
ly every year in California since
1975, When medflies are discov
ered, California authorities
impose a quarantine on produce
from the affected county and
begin eradication efforts, some
times including controversial aer
ial spraying of the pesticide
malathion. Although medfly
infestations so far have occurred
largely in urbanized areas sur
rounding Los Angeles, officials
fear their spread to production
agriculture regions.
McPherson said the results of
this research could go beyond the
California medfly problem.
“These DNA fingerprinting tech
nologies could be used to combat
other pests,” he said. “When a
foreign plant pest is found at a
port of entry, inspectors some
times aren’t sure what it is or the
risk it presents in the U.S. For
some pests of economic quaran
tine significance, it would be use
ful to have genetic methods to
identify them so we know what
measures are needed to address
the problem.”
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