A2O-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 21, 1995
Record Corn Production, Carryovers
(Continued from Pago At)
2.32 billion bushels and soybean
totalled 2.56 billion bushels.
“If last year at this time some
one would have said we’d produce
10 billion bushels of com, no one
would have believed it, because
we had never done better than 9.48
(billion bushels), which was a
record in 1992,” said Moore. “A
lot of people are feeling it may be a
while again before we produce a
crop that big.”
Moore said Pennsylvania’s total
com harvest last year was not a
record, however, and it stood at
118 million bushels, or about 118
bushels/acre. National yields for
1994 totalled 138 bushels/acre.
(To provide some perspective,
according to Moore, in 1954 the
national yield for com was about
39 bushels/acre.)
Projected carryover for this year
will total about 2 billion bushels of
com for next Sept. 1. Carryover of
wheat will be 670 million bushels
and soybeans will be 475 million
bushels, nationwide.
What does all this mean? Simp
ly, while the price for com may
hurt a lot of producers (Jan. 10 pro
jection for March at $2.32 per
bushel, May at $2.39 per bushel,
and December at $2.52 per
bushel), because meat production
in some cases will rise dramatical
ly, there will be good, potential
markets for the product.
“We’re going to have a record
supply of meat, even greater in
1995 than the record we had in
1994,” said Moore. He said we’re
“going to use a lot of com and
going to use a lot of soybeans.”
Projected harvest for this year’s
com crop stands at about 8.5 to 8.7
billion bushels, depending on
weather and other factors, accord
ing to Moore.
The past year was a good one for
producers. Consumer spending
increased and “food prices are
cheaper than nearly anything else
in the economy,” he said. The
price of food is only about half the
real rate of inflation (projected at 3
percent in 1995), and “the supply
of food is abundant. Food is every
where,” said the economist.
Overall, agriculture will be a big
winner, because livestock supplies
will fuel demand for grain. Pork
production will increase 3 to 5 per
cent this year, and total red meat
production will be up 4 percent.
Broiler producUon is projected to
rise 6-7 percent (8-10 percent for
turkeys), and maybe even higher,
in some cases, according to Moore.
What is interesting, according to
the economist, is that the price of
grain did not decrease as much as
"•1 I
* %
Five Acre Corn Club contest winners, from left, Clarence Keener, second place,
shelled grain class, 3 acre plus harvest size; David Koch, third place, shelled grain
class, regular harvest size; and Richard Krelder, third place, 3-year average awards, 3
acre plus harvest size.
Robert Leffel, soybean
breeder from York and retired
USDA Research Service sci
entist, spoke about the nearly
perfect 1994 growing season
for soybeans.
the crop increased. But if produc
ers are expecting a rally, they
should be prepared to take into
account the fact that there is a
record number of livestock need
ing feed. Also, because of the
return of the El Nino weather pat
tern, the Midwest could be hit by a
drought in mid-summer.
Right now, the 1995 Farm Bill is
being written. Moore believes it
will be similar in many ways to the
1990 Farm Bill, only with less
funds allocated for agriculture.
Already, more than 1,000 USDA
field offices have been closed, and
more such budget-trimming will
take place in the years ahead.
Moore provided examples pro
ving that, while agriculture made
up only 1.5 percent of the total fed
eral spending in fiscal year 1994
($23 billion), other issues need to
be addressed. Social security, for
instance, makes up 20.5 percent of
the budget ($319 billion), defense
17.8 percent ($276 billion), and
Medicare and Medicaid 16.2 per
cent ($251 billion). The interest on
the national debt totals a Whopping
13.1 percent, or $203 billion, for
1994.
Also, more farms are being lost
in thell.S. to the tune 0f32,500 per
year. In 1935, according to Moore,
there were 6.80 million farms in
the U.S. In the year 2002, there
will be only 1.54 million farms.
Parity, once a measuring stick of
how the national economy is doing
regarding price, indicates that
prices for most commodities has
been shrinking rapidly. Parity is
the relationship between things
that farmers buy and sell. For
\
example, in 1910, as in 1960, one
bushel of wheat could be sold to
purchase one shirt. But now, to buy
the same shirt, you’d have to sell
about three bushels of wheat. Most
ag products fall anywhere between
35-48 percent of parity. A parity
price for com would be about
$5.77 a bushel.
“But parity is dead, and who
killed such a good thing?’’ said
Moore. “The farmers killed it
because of our yields in
productivity.”
Not all is doom and gloom for
farming, however, especially in
this region. Pennsylvania cash
receipts in 1993 totalled $3,712
billion, which gave the state a 19th
ranking.
He said because of the strong
economy and expanding agricul
tural exports, he remains positive
about agriculture. Producers
‘should watch for rallies this spring
and take advantage of them.
Ag In 2010
Keith Eckel, president of the
Pennsylvania Farm Bureau, spoke
about Pennsylvania Agriculture in
the Year 2010. He offered some
pointers about how producers can
survive in the coming years, and
what they should expect.
The challenge to see what agri
culture would be like in IS years is
difficult enough. “Believe me, if I
knew what the markets would be a
month from now, I’d probably
would not be with any of you,”
said Eckel. “I’d probably be capi
talizing on that.”
Agriculture in the coming mille
mum will be that of an “agricul
ture in change.
“It’s hard to believe that 50
years ago, we had about 30 million
farmers in the U. 5.,” said Eckel.
“Today we have 1.8 million.”
By the year 2000, according to
the Farm Bureau president,
300,000 of those farmers will be
producing 80 percent of the food
and fiber in this country.
Also, the land base is less than
what was available to farmers in
1900. And those farmers will be
feeding a nation of 260 million
people and exporting about 40 per
cent of all we produce in the next
century.
Technology will play “a major
role m these changes,” he said.
Those changes will take place by
refining the technology, through
computerization, that farmers
make use of today.
Eckel, who grows about 500
acres of com and 300 acres of
wheat, also grows several acres of
tomatoes. Technology has allowed
him to use the concept of ‘‘band
Speakers at the crops conference included, from left, Lou
Moore, Penn State ag economist; John Rowehl, York Coun
ty agent; and Robert Leffel, soybean breeder, York County.
mg” fertilizers in row for his
tomatoes.
Using Penn State research, Eck
el said that, 14 years ago, he started
using the technology, which cut
the application of fertilizers in half
and decreased the cost per unit of
production to the tune of about
$14,000 per year.
Agricultural policy should be
established by research and reason
and not by the emotional agendas
of environmental activists and ani
mal rightists. Eckel spoke about
the 30-day moratorium placed on
BST, and how that moratorium
could set a precedent it has the
“potential for setting agricultural
back,” he said.
But farmers who recognize the
globalization of markets and how
to adjust their operations accord
ingly can benefit in the long run.
Corn Growers
Present Awards
ANDY ANDREWS
Lancaster Farming Staff
CARLISLE (Cumberland Co.)
Even on group 3 and 4 soils in
Pennsylvania, record com harvests
were filed in 1994 during a near
ideal growing season, according to
Greg Roth, assistant professor of
agronomy at Penn State.
Roth reviewed the year for the
Pennsylvania Master Com Grow
ers Association (PMCGA) at the
dinner meeting during the Pen
nsylvania Crops Conference on
Monday. Also, Roth presented the
annual Pennsylvania Five-Acre
Com Club awards at the dinner.
Roth said that the club recorded
the highest yields ever for the
entrants in the annual contest, for
an average of 168 bushels per acre.
There were more than 100
entrants.
In the three-year average
awards, shelled grain class, regular
harvest size, Ed Snook, Jersey
Shore, took first place with an
average yield of 195.8 bushels per
acre using Pioneer 3293. Second
place went to Matthew Maximuck,
Doylestown, for his 192 bushel per
acre yield using Dekalb 677 and
Dekalb 623. Lloyd Zook, Oley,
took third place for his 191.8
bushel per acre yield using Pioneer
3293.
In the three-year average
awards, shelled grain class, 3 acre
plus harvest size, Norman Jodiki
nos, Clinton, won first place with a
193.5 bushel per acre yield using
Pioneer 3527, Pioneer 3245, and
Pioneer 3394. Second place went
to Daryl Alger, Palmyra, for his
185.5 bushel per acre yield with
Pioneer 3293 and Pioneer 3394.
Third place went to Richard Kreid
er, Lebanon, with his 185 bushel
Soybean Season
Also at the Monday conference,
Robert Leffel, soybean breeder
from York and retired USDA
Research Service scientist, spoke
about the nearly perfect 1994
growing season for soybeans.
Leffel said the year was almost
ideal in terms of distribution of
rainfall, providing a national aver
age of 41.5 bushels/acre in the U.S.
for a total of 2.4 S billion bushels.
But what concerns the industry
is the fact that Brazilian competi
tion is proving tough on American
producers, because the Brazilian
beans have more oil and a lot less
foreign material per seed.
Unless U.S. can improve the
intrinsic quality of the soybean, the
U.S. will lose ground to Brazilian
competition for Japanese markets,
according to the soybean breeder.
per acre average using Pioneer
3394.
In the three-year average
awards, ear com class, regular
harvest size, first place went to
David Schantz, Albums, for his
196.4 bushel per acre yield using
Pioneer 3358 and Pioneer 3163.
Second place went to Thomas Pep
per, Canton, for his 185.7 bushel
per acre yield using Doebler’s 75X
and Dekalb 646. Third place went
to Sandy Ridge Farms, Shippen
ville, for their 185.4 bushel per
acre yield using Pioneer 3394,
Pioneer 3727, and Pioneer 3527.
In the shelled grain class, regu
lar harvest size, first place went to
David Crist, Jersey Shore, for his
223.4 bushel per acre yield using
Doebler’s 62XP. Second went to
Elder Vogel, Rochester, for his
221.3 bushel per acre yield using
Funk’s 4446 A. Third place went
to Brian Koch, Tamaqua, for his
186.8 bushel per acre yield using
Dekalb 580.
In the shelled grain class, 3 acre
plus harvest size, first place went
to Jody Hock, Watsontown, for his
212.4 bushel per acre yield using
Pioneer 3293. Second went to
Clarence A. Keener, Jr., Manheim,
for his 193.3 bushel per acre yield
using Pioneer 3394. Third went to
Keith Bissinger, Bloomsburg, for
his 192.8 bushel per acre yield
using Pioneer 3394.
In the ear com class, hand
harvest, first place went to the
Mark Crist Farm, Jersey Shore, for
their 224.8 bushel per acre yield
using Doebler’s 73 XP. Second
went to Bud Novak, Meshoppen,
for his 214.4 bushel per acre yield
using Doebler’s 75X A Mod 2.
Third went to Eugene Graham,
Cranberry, for his 2Q7.8 bushel per
acre yield using Pioneer 3394.