A3O-Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 7, 1992
This Spring, Watch India To See If We’ll Have A Drought
(Continued from Pag* A 1)
southern hemisphere phenomenon
caused by the warming of the sur
face of the Pacic Ocean along the
equator. Thompson described his
own research and Findings of col
leagues at a research site in Ban
glor, India.
In a paper, “Impact of Global
Warming and Cooling on Mid
western Agriculture,” published
in the “Journal of lowa Academic
Science” in 1990, Thompson
spoke of the El Nino (Spanish for
“the boy”) as “a flip-flop of the
pressure patterns on either side of
the southern Pacific Ocean (Tahiti
and Darwin, Australia).”
During the southern hemi
sphere’s normal summer our
winter the pattern of La Nina
(Spanish for “little girl”) domi
nates, with high pressure over
western South America, and low
pressure over Australia. However,
during the period of El Nino, the
patterns flip-flop, creating a situa
tion of cool, rainy weather and low
pressure patterns for the western
part of South America, particularly
Peru, and droughty weather in
Australia and Indonesia, according
to Thompson.
Jet stream
In addition, the subtropical jet
stream continues to migrate north
ward, according to Thompson,
spilling rainy, cool weather into
Mexico and Texas, as has hap
pened this winter.
Reports on the El Nino cycle
date back to 1551, when church
records indicated the pattern which
caused a poor fish catch in Peru.
Since 1973, the effects of the El
Nino have been scrutinized,
because “the people in Peru have
been concerned about the El
Nino” cycles.
The current El Nino began in
October of 1991 and continues. If
it continues through the growing
season, Thompson said, “we’ll
begin to get more rain in the east
ern part of the U.S. as that subtrop
ical jet migrates further north.”
Conditions appear dry and
warm in India right now, and if that
pattern holds up, rain could arrive
in the eastern U.S. during the com
season.
El Nino before drought
“We have never had a severe
drought while India is having a
severe drought,” he said. In most
years, the El Nino occurs before
the drought. “The important thing
is, our droughts have occurcd
between El Nino events.”
Thompson said if the El Nino
lasts through the summer, “then
I’d say the chances are very high of
drought in 1993,” he said. Of the
26 El Nino events since 1897, 12
major droughts have occured, but
only if the El Nino occurs in a
drought cycle as is happening
now, according to Thompson.
But he said if the El Nino fades
in the spring, we could experience
a drought in later part of the sum
mer, as happened in 1983. Accord
ing to his records, El Ninos have
occured in 1891, 1899, 1905,
1911, 1920, 1951, 1965, 1972,
1979, and 1987 many predating
a severe drought.
Deficit state
Pennsylvania continues to oper-'
ate as a “deficit state.” consuming
more grain than it can produce,
said John Sutton, Lovatt and Com
pany, Ambler, in his speech,
“Pennsylvania Grain Markets
Unlimited Possibilities.”
Sutton said that Pennsylvania
"If India is having a
drought In May and June of
this year, I can bet you that
we’ll have a more nearly nor
mal growing season in the
corn belt,” said Dr. Louis M.
Thompson, emeritus associ
ate dean of agriculture at
lowa State University, at the
Pennsylvania Corn
Conference.
operate as a “deficit state,”
consuming more grain than it
can produce, said John Sut- *
ton, Lovatt and Compahy,
Ambler.
continues to import com from
other states, inpluding North Car
olina and Canada. However, .for
Pennsylvania producers, there are
still many opportunities for all
sorts of com products, he said.
The biggest production is Num
ber 2 yellow com. But producers
have to put as much emphasis on
marketing the crop as on produc
ing it
Producers should especially
consider making the com the best
quality, because poor quality loads
will get turned down by those who
buy it
Markets react
Sutton said that the markets
react quickly to news more
quickly than before most people
see it. “And when everybody says
the market is going up, it probably
is going down,” he said.
But the importance is to get the
best net return for the cash crop,
which comes from a high basis and
high Chicago board of trade price.
(Basis is the difference between
the Chicago board of trade price
and the local cash price, which
fluctuates every year.)
“We’re blessed with mostly a
positive basis in Pennsylvania,”
he said.
Dry weather
Sutton said this prices this year
are extremely difficult to predict
because of the “greater than nor
mal possibility of dry weather,” he
said.
Also, the recession and the elec
tion year combine to create prob
lems in predicting com prices.
This year, according to figures
obtained from USDA and other
sources, Sutton said that if we
A high yield strategy panel (moderated by Lynn Hoffman, Penn State agronomist,
far right) focused on the grower experiences of three farmers, from left, James Justice
Jr., West Virginia; Daryl Alger, a Lebanon County corn grower; John McDowell, a Mer
cer County corn grower; and Hoffman.
plant 79 million acres, we should
harvest about 71 million acres at a
normal yield of 116 bushels per
acre. Total crop should be about
8.236 billion bushels with a useage
factor of 8.150 billion bushels.
The SPARKS forecast calls for
about 78.9 million acres in 1992.
Under suitable growing conditions
and assuming no major upheavals,
according to Sutton, prices for
corn should range from
$2.55-$2.80 per bushel (Chicago
price). If we have low stocks and
dry weather, the com price could
reach as high as $3.50 or more per
bushel.
High yield panel
Also at the conference, a high
yield strategy panel (moderated by
Lynn Hoffman, Penn State agro
nomist) focused on jdje grpwer
experiences of three farmers
James Justice Jr., West Virginia;
PFA Head:
Value
WASHINGTON, D.C. The
head of a statewide farm organiza
tion called on Congress to enact
legislation to protect property
rights, reduce capital gains taxes
and reform the Legal Services
Corporation.
Keith Eckel, president of the
Pennsylvania Farmers* Associa
tion (PFA), urged action during a
breakfast meeting attended by
Pennsylvania’s Congressional
delegation and about 200 farmers
participating in PFA’s two-way
Washington Legislative Tour. The
day before, the fanners had visited
their congressmen for face-to-face
discussions of agricultural issues.
Eckel told the lawmakers that
government regulations are erod
ing the value of property rights.
“At present it’s the wetlands reg
ulations getting the spotlight,”
Eckel said., “but we could point to
environmental restrictions, denial
of water rights, mineral rights and
other economic uses of property,
conservation, easements and the
outright taking of property with
out compensation.”
Eckel called for just compensa
tion for property rights as guaran
teed by the “takings” protection of
the Fifth Amendment of the
Constitution.
“If the value of private property
is diminished by public regula
tion, doesn’t it make sense for the
public to compensate the property
owner?” Eckel said, “How can we
limit or eliminate the use of pri
Daryl Alger, a Lebanon County
com grower, and John McDowell,
a Mercer County com grower.
McDowell grows about 900
acres of com and manages about
500 head of cattle. He explained
that his operation uses a great deal
of manure to build up the soil
organic profile and he chisel plows
to keep the ground loose. He also
carefully watches soil pH levels
and plants 300 acres of com, 150
acres of beans, 70 acres of wheat,
50 acres of oats, and 200 acres of
hay.
Alger is part of a four-member
operation that maintains about
4,000 acres. On his own farm,
Alger maintains about 180 acres
and oversees two farms, including
a dairy and beef cattle business. He
uses mostly commercial fertilizer
mMtfomand*k»slkll*if»ny til
lage at plandng time (compaction
is a real concern, and the planter is
Government Regs Erode
Of Property Rights
vate property through a public
edict and expect the landowner to
suffer the economic setback? If
the government can’t afford such
action, certainly we can’t ask a
single citizen to cany the financial
burden of the general public.”
Stating that all constitutional
rights are precious, Eckel said, “If
we condone the loss of the rights
to private ownership of property,
and just compensation, what are
the next Bill of Rights guarantees
we are willing to sacrifice... free
dom of speech?... freedom of
religion?”
Turning to the issue of capital
gains, Eckel said, “Lowering capi
tal gains taxes will help all Ameri
cans, regardless of income levels.”
PFA favors adjusting capital
gains for inflation and reducing
the capital gains tax rate from 28
percent to IS percent.
“We talk about getting the eco
nomy moving while at the same
time we tax capital when it moves
from a declining enterprise to
another which holds economic
promise for future years,” Eckel
said. “Enactment of a lower capi
tal gains tax makes good econom
ic sense and it’s fair to all
concerned.”
Eckel also pointed out that PFA
has been urging reform of the Leg
al Services Corporation (LSC) for
years because it has gone far bey
ond its purpose of providing legal
aid to the poor. Started in 1974,
Legal Services today coordinates
“the first thing to go over the
ground in the spring,” he said). He
emphasized the use of a starter fer
tilizer high in phosphorous.
Justice, who placed high in
many com growers award con
tests, manages about 24,000 acres
with farms in North Carolina,
South, Caiplina, West Virginia,
and Virginia. He said he believes
in early planting and the impor
tance of knowing the seed, seed
company, and the land and what
works best with it. Justice said the
marketing strategy should evolve
into a production strategy and
emphasized the importance of
using a strong placement of. pho
sphorous and the right seed num
bers for the best yield.
All the growers emphasized the
need for selecting the right hybrid
and continuing to test different
hybrids to select the numbers that
work for the farm.
what is in effect the largest law
firm in the U. 5.—6,000 attorneys
and 4,000 support staff. It spends
more than $323 million in taxpay
ers money and $l5O million in pri
vate funds.
“Farmers seem to be a prime
target of the LSC-funded migrant
advocate attorneys who sue ag
employers on behalf of migrant
and seasonal farmworkers claim
ing violations of worker protec
tion and wage laws,” Eckel said.
“Farm families must either expend
vast financial resources defending
their innocence in federal court, or
settle out of court In the latter
case, evidence against the farm
family in many cases is nonexis
tent, but they choose to settle
because they can’t afford the cost
of protracted legal procedures.”
PFA is urging passage of legis
lation which would prohibit LSC
funded attorneys from soliciting
clients or recovering fees from
private defendants and would also
require positive identification of
clients by name. The legislation
would also prohibit LSC-funded
attorneys from engaging in lobby
ing activities or using private
funding for purposes prohibited
under the LSC statute.
“The reforms are urgently
needed to bring sanity into Legal
Services* spending, and its activi
ties into line with what Congress
intended,” Eckel told the
legislators.