Milton Madison
Assistant Professor
Poultry Science
Penn State
There is considerable disagree
ment between economists on the
economic outlook for 1992.
Some have stated that we are
now in our 18th month of reces
sion, making this the longest
downturn since the 19305. Others
have cited government statistics
that show slow economic growth
in the second and third quarters of
1991 as evidence of a short reces
sion tunning from August 1990 to
April of 1991. A continuation of
slow economic growth in 1992 is
expected by this group. A third
group has been touting the double
dip recession, stating that the eco
nomy had a short recession, a short
recovery, and returned to recession
in November 1991.
The November data for indust
rial production supports the pros
pect of a new recession because it
fell 0.4 percent from its level in
October. Many retailers report
sales for the holidays have been
disappointing. The Federal
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ENFIELD
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ByhtglsvlHe
PASSMORE SERVICE
CENTER, INC.
no i, m. 100
21S-367-90a4
East Earl
GOODS LAWN
& GARDEN CENTER
Rout* 23
717-354-4026 Ext. 34
Elizabethtown
¥ MESSICK FARM
» EQUIPMENT, INC.
M RhMKM ExH-RL 233
▼ Eliubathlown, PA
H 717-387-1319, 717-653-6867
I Elm/Lebanon
▼ BOMBERGER’S lawn
y & GARDEN
„ Elm: 717-664-4663
▼ Labanon: 717-272-4155
Reserve Board was expected to
reduce selected interest rates by
one-quarter and one-half percent
in December to encourage
increased economic activity. Since
many companies are increasing
their equity-to-debt ratio and bank
regulators are carefully screening
credit commitments, it is question
able how much incentive lower
interest rates will provide.
What are the implications of this
economic outlook for the poultry
industry? The current slow recov
ery from the 1990-1991 recession
will not provide consumers with
the confidence to increase their
food spending budgets, especially
spending at restaurants and for the
higher priced items in supermarket
display cases. While the economy
is weak. I do not believe it will fall
into recession in 1992 and the con
tinuing recovery will be seen in
most sectors of the economy.
Total meat and poultry supplies
for 1991 were 3 percent larger than
in 1990. Another 3 percent
increase is expected for 1992. This
will be the eighth straight year of
Stihl's New Mid-sized Powerhouse.
BOLLINGER’S LAWN &
GARDEN EQUIP.
Eyhrata, PA 717-736-1131
Harahay, PA 717-533-4060
Lancaalar, PA 717-656-2710
Gao
GAP POWER
EQUIPMENT
Comar of RL U A Rl *(7
717-442-6970
Hamburg
SHARTLESVILLE
FARM SERVICE
RD 1, Box 1332
215-486-1025
Jonestown
BLUE MOUNTAIN
ENTERPRISES, INC.
Rt 72 South
717-665-2994
Poultry
Poultry Outlook
16" Bar
$529.95
Suggested Retail
r 20-25 % More
CooCing Capacity
tlian ifie 034
Ronks
A & B SALES
& SERVICE
370 Nawyort Road
2 Mllaa South ol
RL 23 Along 772
Thru Monlaray
Somerset. PA
McCoole. MD
LINCOLN SUPPLY &
Outlook Released
increases in meat availability.
Turkey markets felt the pressure
of increased meat supplies in then
peak marketing season. Thanks
giving. Even with fourth quarter
production equal to 1990, whole
sale prices in 1991 were held ten
cents per pound lower than the pre
vious year’s Thanksgiving market.
Production for 1991 was a little
more than 2 percent larger than in
1990, the smallest production
increase since 1984, and prices
were two cents per pound lower.
With 1991 a break-even or small
loss year for most producers, pros
pects for large meat supplies and
higher feed costs should keep the
brakes on production increases for
1992. Production growth of 3 per
cent for 1992 is expected, with
some improvement in prices com
ing by next Thanksgiving.
Broiler production in 1991 was
over 4 percent larger than in 1990.
Prices for 1991 felt the pressure of
increased meat supplies and were
two cents lower than in 1990.
Slightly higher production costs
brought net returns for broilers to
five cents per pound in 1991.
Stronger than expected exports
Car&urcator
I VMore Sc larger
CyClntar Tins
in the last half of 1991 helped sup
port broiler prices, another export
record should be revealed when
the final 1991 data are reported.
Early last fall, the breeder flock
had been expanded to S percent
larger than the previous year and
may reach nearly 8 percent larger
this month. Large production
increases will be possible if all
these eggs are used to produce
birds.
Early 1992 prices should give
some indication of whether this
large potential increase in produc
tion will be realized. Low returns
early in the year will slow the
annual production increase to 4
percent. Prices and returns will be
slightly lower than the levels seen
in 1991.
Egg production for 1991 was
nearly 1 percent larger than in
1990. Shell egg demand on a per
capita basis continued to decline.
Total egg consumption dropped by
KUTZTOWN (Berks Co.)
At times it is difficult for farmers
to find hay for their animals. It is
even more difficult to find hay that
has been tested.
Now you can find hay at the
Kutztown Produce Auction
located just east of Kutztown.
The hay and straw auctions will
be held on the second and last
Saturday of each month at 9:30
a.m. with the exception of Satur
day, February 29. That sale will be
held on Friday, February 28 at 9:30
a.m. prior to their annual farm
equipment auction.
At the February 28 session, the
Penn State nutrition van will be at
the auction testing hay samples
using the Near Infia-Red (NIR)
test. This will allow buyers to
know the quality of the hay before
purchases are made.
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Excellence Since 1903
CONTACT:
3368 York Rd. P.O. Box 126,
Gettysburg, Phllllpsburg,
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717/624-3331 908/454-7900
Call or writ* today
lor mor* Information
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, February 22, 1992-C9
nearly three eggs from 1990 to
1991, while processed egg con
sumption increased by four, leav
ing a net loss of seven eggs in the
shell form.
A slowing in the total egg con
sumption drop is expected for
1992, (two eggs), but increased use
of egg products should continue. If
you are an egg producer, you must
be producing increasing amounts
of your eggs for breaking and pro
cessing uses or expecting more
competition for your shell egg
markets as more eggs are marketed
as breakers. A 1 percent increase in
egg production will be seen in
1992 with prices slightly lower
than in 1991 and net returns at the
wholesale level near fou r cents per
dozen.
All poultry and egg producers
will feel economic pressure to pro
duce and market their products
more efficiently in 1992, since
food spending budgets will be
tight.
Hay Auction
This test will analyze hay sam
ples for dry matter, crude protein,
acid detergent fiber, neutral deter
gent fiber, total digestible nutri
ents, net energy for lactation, net
energy for maintenance, net ener
gy for gain, calcium, phosphorus,
potassium, magnesium, horse
digestible energy, and horse total
digestible nutrients.
If there is interest, the van will
return to the hay auction on each of
the first Saturdays in March and
April to continue the testing prog
ram. If you are interested in buying
hay that has been tested, please
support the hay auction on Febru
ary 28.
For more information, contact
the Kutztown Produce Auction at
(215) 683-7161 or the Penn State
Extension Service at (215)
378-1327.
1-800-447-7436
Illinois only, c«H
1-400-4 M-MM