BY BLAIR SMITH
Finger-pointing at the pre
sumed generators of milk sur
pluses has become more emphatic
in recent years because the 1985
farm bill specifically ties the sup-
Percent of U.S. total
milk production population
Raglon*
or
state
Northeast
Lake states
Corn belt
Northern plains
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta states
Southern plains
Mountain
Pacific
Wisconsin 15.8 17.4 2.2 2.0 718.2 870.0
California 6.1 12.6 9.8 11.0 62.2 114.5
New York 8.8 8.0 9.0 7.4 97.8 108.1
Minnesota 8.2 7.3 1.9 1.8 431.6 405.6
Pennsylvania 8.1 7.1 5.8 5.0 139.7 142.0
Texas 2.6 3.0 5.5 6.9 47.3 43.5
* The states that are included in each region appear on page 9 of the
July 1988 Dairy Situation and Outlook Report. This information may
also be obtained from the author
To help understand these fig- fanners produced 8.1 percent ot
ures, look at the line for Pcnnsyl- all the milk, and the state con
vania. In 1970 Pennsylvania dairy tained 5.8 percent of all the peo-
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Locating Milk Production Surpluses
port price to expected surpluses,
and several downward adjust
ments in the support price have
already taken place. Below are
some data that might help put this
issue in better perspective:
1970 1987 1970 1987
20.7 19.8 26.3 23.0
27.9 28.4 8.4 7.6
14.8 11.5 17.0 14.9
5.0 3.8 2.5 2.3
7.0 5.9 9.5 9.6
3.5 3.1 8.6 10.4
2.4 1.7 3.8 4.0
3.7 3.8 6.8 8.2
4.0 5.5 4.1 5.4
10.8 16.4 13.1 14.7
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Our people make the dlffcrmcm
Production as a
percent of
population
pie, in the United States. If one
assumes each Pennsylvanian con
sumed the same total quantity of
milk in all forms and products as
citizens everywhere in the United
States (and we ignore exports,
imports, and carry-over stocks),
then Pennsylvania dairy fanners
Lancaatar Farming, Saturday, Novambar 5,19M-AZ7
produced an apparent surplus of
39.7 percent of production over
consumption. By 1987, share of
population had gone down more
than share of production, so the
presumed surplus increased to
42.0 percent
Space does not permit further
comment or analysis in this News-
letter, so please draw your own
additional conclusions as you see
fit Some of you will like what you
see. Others will not This certainly
is not the only way to look at the
issue of surpluses, but it does pro
vide an alternative perspective
I’ve not yet seen presented
elsewhere.