DMjncaster Farming Saturday, July 18, 1987
Growth,
USDA FARMLINE
News Service
The United States is expected to
remain the world’s leading expor
ter of wheat, despite a sharp drop in
sales the last few years.
But tougher competition, main
ly from the European Community,
makes it unlikely that the U.S.
share of wheat exports will return
any time soon to the high levels
obtained in the 19705, says
Mathew Shane, an economist with
USDA’s Economic Research
Service.
Shane has projected possible
changes in the wheat export mark
et to the year 2000. His projec
tions, contained in a recent issue of
the Agriculture Department’s
FARMUNE magazine, include a
U.S. market share of about 35 per
cent in 2000. Historically above 40
percent, the U.S. share fell to 29
percent in 1985/86.
Shane expects that at the turn of
the century, world wheat exports
will total about 160 million metric
tons annually, nearly double the
1985/86 level. He says that Canada
is likely to have about 20 percent
of the market, France 16 percent,
Australia 9 percent, and Argentina
8 percent. These shares would rep
resent gains for France and Argen
tina, a loss for Australia, and the
same proportion for Canada.
The market-share projections
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are based on past patterns and cur
rent trends, Shane says. “Of
course, a lot of things could hap
pen to change the picture.
“Shane’s recent study is part of a
comprehensive Economic
Research Service project on com
petitiveness in wheat exports.
Markets Could
Be Regained
Shane says he is optimistic that
the United States can regain a sub
stantial portion of the lost wheat
sales. “It depends on what policies
are implemented by the United
States and other countries. We
might be able to discourage our
competitors from continuing at
current levels of production. I
think the EC will cut back its high
wheat subsidies,” Shane says.
This could occur, the economist
believes, because of two types of
pressure on the EC-budgetary and
political. “The EC is spending a lot
of money on agricultural subsi
dies. The amount has increased
because the 1985 U.S. farm bill
lowered the loan rate 25 to 30 per
cent, and the dollar has depre
ciated, making U.S. wheat cheap
er. There is pressure from within
the EC to reduce the amount being
spent to provide high returns to
wheat growers,” Shane says. “In
addition, there is increasing politi
cal pressure, from the United
States and developing countries,
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against EC policies that restrict
competition.”
U.S. policies also have been part
Recent Declines in U.S. Wheat Export Volume Are Expected to Turn Around ...
Million metric tons
200
100
World
1970
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U.S. Wheat
of the problem for this country’s
wheat growers and exporters,
Shane says. “We made it profitable
... But the U.S. Share of the World Wheat
Market May Not Return to Peat Highs
U S Share. %
60
1970 75 80 85 87*
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Exports
for other countries to expand their
wheat production,” he adds, citing
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