Cornell Scientist’s “Sunspot” Theory Sees No Early Relief
ITHACA, NY - A Cornell
University scientist who uses the
so-called sunspot theory to make
long-term weather predictions
sees no signs of early relief for the
Southeast now suffering from the
worst drought in a century.
Predicting the drought could
linger into 1987, Douglas A. Paine
says it may take another year for
the current drought to break.
Paine is a professor of at
mospheric science and a leading
proponent of the sunspot theory.
As for the Northeast, the drought
that persisted for several years in
a row, causing serious water
shortages for major metropolitan
areas last year, ended in the fall
after hurricane Gloria swept
through the region, Paine says.
“The Northeast is doing very
well now, with reservoirs
replenished with adequate water
supplies,” he points out.
Paine bases his projection for
the Southeast on a controversial
long-range weather forecasting
technique that takes into account
the waxing and waning of sunspot
activity.
Using this theory, Cornell’s
Paine predicted as early as winter
1981 that severe drought would
occur for several years in a row
through 1986 for a significant part
of the nation, including the Nor
theast and the region south of the
Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.
“Earlier drought projections
based on this theory have been
more or less on target,” Paine
says. “One surprise is that the
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Northeast drought has shifted to
the Southeast.”
According to Paine, dark pat
ches that appear on the sun -
sunspots - increase and decrease
in number periodically, ultimately
affecting the weather patterns on
Earth.
The current drought was in the
making in the late 1970 s when,
according to Paine, the number of
sunspots reached an unusually
strong peak. A- series of droughts
hit much of the eastern United
States during the first half of the
1980 s.
A similar celestial event took
place in the late 19505, resulting in
several successive years of severe
drought in the Northeast that
persisted into 1986, Paine explains.
The high level of sunspot activity
of the late 1970 s has diminished to a
point where the number of sun
spots is now minimal, a condition
that will trigger normal
precipitation in a year or two,
Paine predicts.
The dark patches that appear on
the surface of the sun are colossal
magnetic storms raging within the
incredibly hot gases shrouding the
sun. In the process, the sun sends
out more ultraviolet light to Earth.
Increased amounts of ultraviolet
light create more ozone and heat in
the stratosphere, an atmospheric
layer about 30 miles above Earth.
The additional heat acts to
decrease the exchange of air
between the stratosphere and
lowest atmospheric levels,
reducing the number and intensity
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of major storms in the East, Paine
explains. Such storms account for
a major share of the rain and snow
east of the Mississippi.
“The stratosphere has been
extremely stable over the eastern
seaboard during the past few
years, greatly diminishing the
ability of storms to draw some of
their energy out of the
stratosphere,” Paine points out.
The Cornell scientist believes
that the degree of stability in the
stratosphere may hold the key to
the riddle as to why drought oc
curs.
Citing the prolonged dry spell in
the Northeast in the 19605, Paine
notes that the ocean temperature
off the Atlantic coast along the
New England states at that time
was two to five degrees Fahrenheit
below normal. Back then,
meteorologists blamed the colder
than-normal ocean temperature
for the drought, a theory that has
been generally accepted thus far.
But, Cornell’s Paine questions
the validity of that hypothesis. He
points out that the ocean tem
perature off the Atlantic seaboard
is now normal, yet the Southeast is
suffering from a devastating
drought.
“We (meteorologists) may have
to look for additional causes of
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drought,” Paine argues, adding
that his theory of the atmospheric
stability in the stratosphere may
play a role in causing droughts.
Paine says he is monitoring the
stability of the stratosphere,
watching for signs of a break in the
pattern.
Paine’s sunspot theory for long
range weather forecasting has
been a subject of debate among
meteorological scientists. Many
remain skeptical about the theory.
Nevertheless, the Cornell
scientist is not throwing in the
4-H Judging Teams
YORK, Pa. - Bigger beef, faster
horses and woolier lambs will be
judged at livestock shows across
the country this summer by state 4-
H judging teams who travel with
The Pennsylvania State Univer
sity’s livestock judging teams.
The youth teams have received a
$5,000 endowment for travel ex
penses from the Pennsylvania
Livestock Association, the Penn
State Board of Trustees learned
recently in a meeting at the
University’s York Campus.
The gift to the Pennsylvania
Friends of 4-H will provide travel
funds for state 4-H livestock, horse
towel. Using his theory, Paine
predicts that the sunspot activity,
which is now at its lowest ebb since
last fall, will reach its next
peak in 1992. Based on sunspot
records dating back about 2,000
years, the number of sunspots
varies about every 11 years.
Becase Paine expects the
number of sunspots in the early
1990 s to be well below the peaks
observed in the late 1950 s and
19705, he does not look for a return
of drought conditions in the East
during the next decade.
and meats judging teams to
participate and compete in
regional and national contests. The
4-H program is a part of Penn
State’s Cooperative Extension
Service.
Expenditures will be determined
by the state 4-H director and will
depend on the fund’s annual
earned income.
This year, in addition to county
events and about six state events,
teams of four 4-H members will
travel with an adviser to national
regional competitions in
Louisville, Ky. and Kansas City,
Mo.