Futures Market Analysis And
force was of the nork oroduct ver y attractive market. It is true
demand 8 * P that the Japanese yen had been in
Given' the proximity of the “ , u P tre f ,d f ° r *° me time. the
tv ,„ yen’s value has increased over
Scandinavian Countries to the twenty-five percent relative to the
Chernobyl nuclear site the
h-j „ dollar since the first of the year
JBpBn6B6 were forced to find & new j •» j ATI u %_* iui„
nnrk-nrodiirt market Their entrv ***** “ we ** on t let this pork-
SK p roduct p rice « et 400 far ° ut ° f
proportion, the United States will
« very competitive
nnfantioi j, ir j n(y iL* i-i. M av in&rk6t for J&p&n s imports.
diminished Wile. The dnp in the
hog runs was a definite factor, but
even -before this-occurrence the J"*"J? asing our pork export
ratio of pork-product, (particular *• . . f ..
loins), to Uve hog price had “*
climbed to exceedingly high levels. £
Using this ratio barometer alone, a t l le c o ncurrent drop m ho B
, . .. h L. lin i ( slaughter, (perhaps in reverse
futures trader would have bought ort i er \ added fuel to the fire as
the June Hog Futures at fifty (50)
dollars. Several days prior to the “P™“ “
USDA Hogs and Pigs Report, June j"* “® h “ d P ™k
, • However, the same ratio, pork-
Product to live hog price, that
t£ indicated by deliverable futures
(J™* in early June) has
cautious nature (tf the Japanese turned radically and last
w.ehmdlc.md.nmrUmpi.
**• ****■» sar*®csssrs
burned idnnghterny <d In Futures te me current
Wnles teat were found to here market end the protected
unacceptable levels of radiation, f
other bans are still in effect. Even slaughter levels the recent rejwrt
tfS traces of radiation were to suggests that a further substantial
r gam in these back months is very
Probably. The magnitude of which
Sv t. could rally both October and
pletely to normal it may be very f utures above fifty-five
unlikely for the orientals to leave w
By
Michael Omdorff, Director
PF A Commodity Futures
Service, Inc.
CAMP HILL - It has now been
over two months since the Cher
nobyl nuclear accident and the
bullish sentiment which engulfed
the grain markets at that time
have disappeared as quickly as
they arose. Indeed, new crop
wheat prices have completely
retraced to their pre-disaster
levels and new crop com continues
to carve out new contract lows.
Tuesday of this week December
com Futures established yet a new
life of contract low at 1.80 (this is
98% of Government Support loan
price, when you consider Gramm-
Rudmann cut backs).
So it’s safe to say that the
radiation fall-out has come and
gone with no sustained appreciable
market impact? In reviewing the
livestock markets we also find that
a similar market pattern related to
the Chernobyl accident. Indeed, in
cattle, after the initial rally, the
market reversed and proceeded to
also make new contract lows as did
the grains. This was do mostly to
fundamental factors associated
with back-logging heavy weight
cattle and the psychological
negative effect of the dairy herd
buyout program. If this was the
case in cattle there must have been
some other fundamental factor
which kept the hog futures from
repeating the same pattern. Some
will argue that hogs sustained their
momentum due to seasonal factors
It takes performance to tame today’s tough jobs:
TOUfif W 1 DALE.
Performance for tough
silo-unloadingjobs:
Performance for tough
manure-handling Jobs:
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Before You Buy.
VAN DALE
LANCASTER SILO CO.
2008 Horseshoe Rd., Lancaster, PA
717/299-3721
Performance for tough
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Performance for tough
ration-buUduigjobs:
Total Mixed Rations
With The New
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Recommendations
(55) dollars per hundred weight.
Some economists argue that the
report of the diminished breeding
herd (91 per cent of a year ago) is
perhaps the sole reason for this
pick up in potential (futures) price
but the same senerio has been
given over the last several USDA
Hog Reports. More than likely it’s
the historical low spring pig crop
and low farrowing intentions
combined with a thirty percent
increase in Japan’s imports of
pork-product. Some of the trade
are even trying to discredit the
magnitude of the decreased
numbers in the report as well as
the recent reversion of the March
USDA Hogs and Isgs Report, but
given the recent slaughter levels
this argument is not valid. The
numbers are real and this new
demand is real, therefore, the
dynamics of the hog market should
continue through fall and early
winter.
A three phase approach to the
market should guarantee the
No-Till Field Day in Lancaster Co.
LANCASTER The Lancaster
County Conservation District
along with Brubaker Agronomic
Consulting Service will be holding
a field day at the Jacob S. King
farm on Friday, July 11 at 10 a.m.
The farm is located at Prospect
Road just off the Strasburg Pike
right outside Strasburg Borough.
The emphasis will be placed on
proper no-till management for
com production. Mike Brubaker
Get field-proven reliability and accuracy with a
Weighmaster platform scale from Butler It pro
vides precision management for a variety of port
able or permanent applications, at a fraction of
the cost of a conventional scale
• Butler OMR electronics with Vi % accuracy
• 40,000-lb capacity, 7-ft by 10-ft weighing
See us for the performance leaders,
in systems and service.
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, My 5, 1956-Al7
producer record high margin; 1)
look to forward price August Hogs
in the vicinity of fifty-eight (58)
dollars per hundred weight; the
cash market has seemed to have
topped and relative to die USDA
report we have some increased
runs to look at through the July-
August period. 2.) Forward price
sale of hogs from late winter
through summer of 1967,; any
price exceeding fifty (50) dollars
for this period will guarantee
handsome margins as long as feed
needs are priced or procured for
this period as well. 3.) Start a
scaled up selling program by
forward pricing a percentage of
September through December
production in the mid fifties area
and continued scaling up until you
have fifty percent or production
covered and if the market ap
proaches sixty dollars sell another
twenty-five (25) percent. As in
dicated in the text of this column
this period should be the most
dynamic as far price advance.
will be sharing some of his ob
servations about conventional and
no-till corn. Gerald Heistand will
talk, about no-till corn planters
citing some of the problems he has
experienced in working with the
planter rental program.
In addition, a Soil Conservation
Service representative will talk
about soil conservation and
nutrient management. Bob
Gregory from the District will be
on hand to explain the Chesapeake
Bay Cost-share Program, and
answer any questions. After a
lunch at the farm, a tour will be
available for those interested in
seeing some no-till plots at other
locations.
For more information contact
Brubaker Agronomic Consulting
Service at 627-0065 or the Con
servation District at 299-5361.
Reservations will be appreciated
but are not required.
bmt/ Livestock
Vr u ' l£ V Systems
builds performance leaders
surface
• Reliable, shock-resistant strain gauge load
cells
• Detachable ramps and 3-point hitch attachment
available
WEIGHING
SALES-SERVICE-REPAIRS
GARBER SCALE
COMPANY
P.O. Box 8
Smoketown, PA 17576
(717)393-1708