Futures Market Analysis And force was of the nork oroduct ver y attractive market. It is true demand 8 * P that the Japanese yen had been in Given' the proximity of the “ , u P tre f ,d f ° r *° me time. the tv ,„ yen’s value has increased over Scandinavian Countries to the twenty-five percent relative to the Chernobyl nuclear site the h-j „ dollar since the first of the year JBpBn6B6 were forced to find & new j •» j ATI u %_* iui„ nnrk-nrodiirt market Their entrv ***** “ we ** on t let this pork- SK p roduct p rice « et 400 far ° ut ° f proportion, the United States will « very competitive nnfantioi j, ir j n(y iL* i-i. M av in&rk6t for J&p&n s imports. diminished Wile. The dnp in the hog runs was a definite factor, but even -before this-occurrence the J"*"J? asing our pork export ratio of pork-product, (particular *• . . f .. loins), to Uve hog price had “* climbed to exceedingly high levels. £ Using this ratio barometer alone, a t l le c o ncurrent drop m ho B , . .. h L. lin i ( slaughter, (perhaps in reverse futures trader would have bought ort i er \ added fuel to the fire as the June Hog Futures at fifty (50) dollars. Several days prior to the “P™“ “ USDA Hogs and Pigs Report, June j"* “® h “ d P ™k , • However, the same ratio, pork- Product to live hog price, that t£ indicated by deliverable futures (J™* in early June) has cautious nature (tf the Japanese turned radically and last w.ehmdlc.md.nmrUmpi. **• ****■» sar*®csssrs burned idnnghterny <d In Futures te me current Wnles teat were found to here market end the protected unacceptable levels of radiation, f other bans are still in effect. Even slaughter levels the recent rejwrt tfS traces of radiation were to suggests that a further substantial r gam in these back months is very Probably. The magnitude of which Sv t. could rally both October and pletely to normal it may be very f utures above fifty-five unlikely for the orientals to leave w By Michael Omdorff, Director PF A Commodity Futures Service, Inc. CAMP HILL - It has now been over two months since the Cher nobyl nuclear accident and the bullish sentiment which engulfed the grain markets at that time have disappeared as quickly as they arose. Indeed, new crop wheat prices have completely retraced to their pre-disaster levels and new crop com continues to carve out new contract lows. Tuesday of this week December com Futures established yet a new life of contract low at 1.80 (this is 98% of Government Support loan price, when you consider Gramm- Rudmann cut backs). So it’s safe to say that the radiation fall-out has come and gone with no sustained appreciable market impact? In reviewing the livestock markets we also find that a similar market pattern related to the Chernobyl accident. Indeed, in cattle, after the initial rally, the market reversed and proceeded to also make new contract lows as did the grains. This was do mostly to fundamental factors associated with back-logging heavy weight cattle and the psychological negative effect of the dairy herd buyout program. If this was the case in cattle there must have been some other fundamental factor which kept the hog futures from repeating the same pattern. Some will argue that hogs sustained their momentum due to seasonal factors It takes performance to tame today’s tough jobs: TOUfif W 1 DALE. Performance for tough silo-unloadingjobs: Performance for tough manure-handling Jobs: Check Our Prices Before You Buy. VAN DALE LANCASTER SILO CO. 2008 Horseshoe Rd., Lancaster, PA 717/299-3721 Performance for tough feed-rUstributionjobs: Performance for tough ration-buUduigjobs: Total Mixed Rations With The New ORBIT-MIXER Van Dale, Inc. Box 337, Long Lake, MM 55356 Recommendations (55) dollars per hundred weight. Some economists argue that the report of the diminished breeding herd (91 per cent of a year ago) is perhaps the sole reason for this pick up in potential (futures) price but the same senerio has been given over the last several USDA Hog Reports. More than likely it’s the historical low spring pig crop and low farrowing intentions combined with a thirty percent increase in Japan’s imports of pork-product. Some of the trade are even trying to discredit the magnitude of the decreased numbers in the report as well as the recent reversion of the March USDA Hogs and Isgs Report, but given the recent slaughter levels this argument is not valid. The numbers are real and this new demand is real, therefore, the dynamics of the hog market should continue through fall and early winter. A three phase approach to the market should guarantee the No-Till Field Day in Lancaster Co. LANCASTER The Lancaster County Conservation District along with Brubaker Agronomic Consulting Service will be holding a field day at the Jacob S. King farm on Friday, July 11 at 10 a.m. The farm is located at Prospect Road just off the Strasburg Pike right outside Strasburg Borough. The emphasis will be placed on proper no-till management for com production. Mike Brubaker Get field-proven reliability and accuracy with a Weighmaster platform scale from Butler It pro vides precision management for a variety of port able or permanent applications, at a fraction of the cost of a conventional scale • Butler OMR electronics with Vi % accuracy • 40,000-lb capacity, 7-ft by 10-ft weighing See us for the performance leaders, in systems and service. Lancaster Farming, Saturday, My 5, 1956-Al7 producer record high margin; 1) look to forward price August Hogs in the vicinity of fifty-eight (58) dollars per hundred weight; the cash market has seemed to have topped and relative to die USDA report we have some increased runs to look at through the July- August period. 2.) Forward price sale of hogs from late winter through summer of 1967,; any price exceeding fifty (50) dollars for this period will guarantee handsome margins as long as feed needs are priced or procured for this period as well. 3.) Start a scaled up selling program by forward pricing a percentage of September through December production in the mid fifties area and continued scaling up until you have fifty percent or production covered and if the market ap proaches sixty dollars sell another twenty-five (25) percent. As in dicated in the text of this column this period should be the most dynamic as far price advance. will be sharing some of his ob servations about conventional and no-till corn. Gerald Heistand will talk, about no-till corn planters citing some of the problems he has experienced in working with the planter rental program. In addition, a Soil Conservation Service representative will talk about soil conservation and nutrient management. Bob Gregory from the District will be on hand to explain the Chesapeake Bay Cost-share Program, and answer any questions. After a lunch at the farm, a tour will be available for those interested in seeing some no-till plots at other locations. For more information contact Brubaker Agronomic Consulting Service at 627-0065 or the Con servation District at 299-5361. Reservations will be appreciated but are not required. bmt/ Livestock Vr u ' l£ V Systems builds performance leaders surface • Reliable, shock-resistant strain gauge load cells • Detachable ramps and 3-point hitch attachment available WEIGHING SALES-SERVICE-REPAIRS GARBER SCALE COMPANY P.O. Box 8 Smoketown, PA 17576 (717)393-1708
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