Numbers - Fact or Fqncy?
Why all the fuss about numbers
in breeding cattle? The argument
seems to revolve around the cow
and bull INDEXES. The index is a
number that indicates the true
breeding value of the animal. How
the number is interpreted is
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another matter.
The main fear seems to be based
on the fact that breeding has been
taken over by mathematics. It
seems to by-pass the “breeder”
with some mysterious power to
mix and match a winning com-
qUALI|>
bination. The “numbers” remove
the mystery, and for some it
removes the fun.
Since the cow index is used as a
basis for special matings for
potential herd sires, it becomes
desirable to own cows with a high
index.
One of the complaints often
heard is that, in a high producing
herd, where nearly every cow is
producing at the 20,000 pound level,
the individual cows may have only
an average index.
This poses a mystery, and raises
questions. Are these high
producers not good enough to
produce AI bulls, just because they
have a low or average index?
The answer lies in the com
plexity of the mathematics used in
the index formula. Most of us are
not mathematicians, so the for
mula as well as the solution
becomes a mystery.
We would rather take our
chances on mating our favorite
bull to the highest producer in the
herd. Isn’t that the way Grandpa
did it? Isn’t that the way Ivanhoe,
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Elevation, and most of the other
big name bulls were bred?
Some smart breeder hit on the
right mix, and it clicked to produce
a great bull. But remember that
even these great sires would be
considered mediocre by today’s
standards.
The point is, the figures don’t he.
Within the last 10 years, the real
genetic progress is so obvious that
you don’t need glasses to see it.
Take a casual glance at the
production records that are broken
every day. Compare your herds
production record to ten years ago.
How many 20,000 pound cows could
you find in your own or your
neighbors herd 10 years back?
Look at the DHIA listings, and
draw the conclusion that
something dramatic has hap
pened.
Allowing some credit for better
feeding and management, that
minor miracle boils down to
numbers. Feed and management
can only go as far as genetic ability
will allow it.
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The miracle is in the proper
understanding and use of numbers.
If we can’t understand the for
mula, we should not therefore
discard it.
The real proof is that it is
working, so it must be trusted. The
only danger is that someone will
juggle the numbers, and come up
with a false result.
Sure, liars can figure, and there
has been some of that kind of
juggling done in order to get higher
indexes. Cases are well
documented, and only need to be
publicized to warn the unwary. But
the great majority of breeders are
honest, and the Co-op Bull stud
managers are un-biased in their
decisions.
So, in most cases we can trust
the “numbers.” The real proof is in
the results that we see every day,
in the unbiased bull proofs
published indexes used to select
matings.
Are you still suspicious of
“numbers” and formulas? They
have always been mistrusted by
those who do not understand them.
Even PI, the magic number
without which we could not
calculate the area of a circle, was
mistrusted when first discovered.
Who of us really understands
E=MC squared? But we know that
it harnessed the Atom, and helped
get us to the Moon.
The formula that calculates cow
indexes is even more complex than
either of those, but has produced
just as remarkable results.
As a breeder of cattle, or as a
producer of milk, it behooves us to
try to understand the numbers that
are serving us well. And if we can’t
really understand them any more
than we understand PI, perhaps
we can leam to trust them because
they really work.
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