fOL. 31 No. 22
Experts predict continued 4 86 dairy surplus
Special to Lancaster Fanning
SYRACUSE, NY What impact
nil the Food Security Act of 1985
ave on the nation’s dairy far
ners? Will the whole herd buyout
program reduce the milk surplus
by the mandatory 12 billion
pounds?
These questions were just a
sampling of what dairy industry
leaders attempted to answer
Monday and Tuesday as they
gathered at the 1986 Northeastern
Dairy Conference. And while no
ready-made answers were offered,
conference participants presented
an optimistic viewpoint about the
industry’s future.
Touting the theme “Dairy In
iustry at the Crossroads,” the
conference highlighted dairy
egislation and the farm financial
picture. It also looked at other
ivenues of stability, including
iairy promotion and product
esearch.
Valiant daughters top calf sale
HARRISBURG Pennsylvania
in Parade continues today at the
Farm Show comples with the long
iwaited show that promises to put
«me of the best of the Holstein
ireect in Pennsylvania on display.
The State Holstein Show today
as 400 head entered for the op
ortunity to be considered best in
’ennsylvania. Among those
wnpeUng are previous champions
rom the Doebenener, Hostetter,
ling, Foster, Bupp, Fox, Boyer,
ieipt, and Ohlinger herds
When these top names in the
late gather, the spectators know
» will be treated to a parade of
titstanding Holsteins
In Thursday’s calf sale which
mtiated the three day event, the
up seller was Henry-Acres
'aliant, a S-W-D Valiant daughter.
This December calf, consigned
I Ro> and Glen Henry from Port
loyal, was purchased by Latuch
fothers, Rockwood, for $3,400.
The dam of this calf, Henry
cres Elevation Joyce, is
assified EX-90 and has two
Words over 30,000 pounds of milk,
•4 a lifetime record of 223,151
Minds of milk to date. She
resentlv has 13 sons in A.I. around
eworld
% and Glen Henry also con
ned the second highest selling
hi, Henry-Acres Valiant Elissa-
T. This calf, which has almost the
®ie pedigree as the highest
hhng calf, sold for $3,100 to
Five Sections
But the underlying theme cen
tered around the whole herd
buyout program and the an
ticipated producer sign-up. With
the conference held just three days
before the March-28 announcement
of accepted bids, attendees sought
to predict the program’s future
outcome.
Speaking before an audience of
200 cooperative, university and
agribusiness leaders, economist
Andrew Novakovic reviewed the
whole herd buyout program and
cautiously offered his predictions.
“We’ll make a lot of progress
with this program,” Novakovic
said, “but it won’t be the solution in
1986.”
The Cornell University professor
based his prediction on current
milk production, which continues
to climb. For 1986, Novakovic
estimates that total U.S. milk
production will reach 149 billion
Jeff Harding, PHA staff; (left) consignor Roy Henry, and
sale chairman Lewis Berkley stand with the top selling calf,
Henry-Acres Valiant, who sold for $3,400. At the lead is June
Bechtel.
Michael J. Allen, Jefferson, MD.
The dam for this December calf
is Middessa Rorae Ela. She is a
gold medal dam classified EX-92.
Consignment numbers 115 and 66
received the next highest bid of
$1,700. Both of these calves were
also sold to Hilmar Holskins,
Hilmar CA. One point these four
top calves have in common is
Round Oak Apple Elevation is
their maternal grandsire.
Number 66, Ray-Mc Chairman
Pride Jade is the daughter of Cal-
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 29,1986
pounds, compared to 144 billion
pounds in 1985.
“If we go below 1985 levels, we’ll
be lucky,” he said, adding that
production may begin declining at
the end of the year when the effects
of the buyout program are felt.
USDA economist Clifford Car
man echoes Novakovic’s
predictions. In addressing the
dairy situation and outlook,
Carman said production will be at
a dowA turn at the end of 1986.
“WJe’re unlikely to hold 1986
production at 1985 production,” he
said- “The cows and milk (of the
buyout program) will not be out
until 1987.”
On the price side of dairying,
farmers can expect lower milk
prices during the second half of
1986 than the second half of 1985.
Generally, prices will be down
between 45 and 85 cents, Carman
said.
Clark Board Chairman and was
consigned by Ray McMillen and
Sons, Loysville. “Jade’s” dam has
one record over 30,000 pounds of
milk. As a 10 year old, she
produced a 309 day record of 28,138
M, 1,075 F, with a 3.7 test.
S-W-D Valiant is the sire for lot
number, consigned by Loren L.
and Helen M. Zimmerman, East
Earl. This consignments dam is
Zimhaven Elevation Jolly.
The unofficial sale average on
100 head was $840.50. The sale was
managed by Backus Associates,
Mexico, NY. The barn crew and
leadsmen for the sale were from
the Dairy Societies of Penn State
and Delaware Valley College.
The bred heifers and young cows
scheduled for sale Friday were out
of the finest bulls and dams m the
breed . . . Rotate, Astronaut,
Chairman and Tony daughters
from excellent dams with 20,000
plus pounds of milk.
Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University, outlines his
thoughts on the impact of the 1985 Farm Bill.
But the key to prices, Novakovic
said, will depend on the buyout
program. With this said, he opened
up discussion among the dairy*
leaders, questioning the signup in
the individual northeastern states.
In volunteering the information
they had, conference participants
indicated that the signup in these
states averaged between 12 and 26
percent of total dairy herds. From
these figures, Novakovic said, the
northeast “clearly has an interest
in this program, but the signup is
not as high as the rest of the
country."
The bids in the northeast ranged
somewhere between $4.90 and $350.
February milk output
up seven percent
WASHINGTON - U. S. milk
production surpassed year-earlier
levels once again in February,
completing 12 consecutive months
of production increases.
The nation’s February milk
output was 11.3 billion pounds,
seven percent higher than in
February 1985.
Cow numbers in January
climbed about three percent over
1985 levels, to 11.1 million, while
The sale session always reaches its peak in March. In this
issue find complete sale reports on the Exclusive Sale on A
-23, Red and White Sale on A-22, York Calfarama on A-35 and
PA on Parade on A-1.
f 7.50 per Year
the leader suggested. But what
level will be the cutoff for ac
ceptance!
guess,”
Novakovic said, "is they won’t
take bids over $20.”
If the number of bids accepted
does not reach 10 billion pounds of
milk equivalent, a second signup
period is likely, Novakovic said.
The goal of the current ad
ministration is to reduce the
surplus by 12 billion pounds of milk
equivalent.
“And if the buyout program
doesn’t work, what next 9 ”
Novakovic quizzed his audience.
“Quotas? We’ll probably have to
think about it.”
production per cow was up four
percent to 1,015 pounds.
In Pennsylvania, production was
up four percent to 791 million
pounds, tying the production
record for the month set in
February 1984. Cow numbers
averaged 739,000, or 4,000 more
than year-earlier totals, and
production per cow was up 40
pounds, to 1,070.