fOL. 31 No. 22 Experts predict continued 4 86 dairy surplus Special to Lancaster Fanning SYRACUSE, NY What impact nil the Food Security Act of 1985 ave on the nation’s dairy far ners? Will the whole herd buyout program reduce the milk surplus by the mandatory 12 billion pounds? These questions were just a sampling of what dairy industry leaders attempted to answer Monday and Tuesday as they gathered at the 1986 Northeastern Dairy Conference. And while no ready-made answers were offered, conference participants presented an optimistic viewpoint about the industry’s future. Touting the theme “Dairy In iustry at the Crossroads,” the conference highlighted dairy egislation and the farm financial picture. It also looked at other ivenues of stability, including iairy promotion and product esearch. Valiant daughters top calf sale HARRISBURG Pennsylvania in Parade continues today at the Farm Show comples with the long iwaited show that promises to put «me of the best of the Holstein ireect in Pennsylvania on display. The State Holstein Show today as 400 head entered for the op ortunity to be considered best in ’ennsylvania. Among those wnpeUng are previous champions rom the Doebenener, Hostetter, ling, Foster, Bupp, Fox, Boyer, ieipt, and Ohlinger herds When these top names in the late gather, the spectators know » will be treated to a parade of titstanding Holsteins In Thursday’s calf sale which mtiated the three day event, the up seller was Henry-Acres 'aliant, a S-W-D Valiant daughter. This December calf, consigned I Ro> and Glen Henry from Port loyal, was purchased by Latuch fothers, Rockwood, for $3,400. The dam of this calf, Henry cres Elevation Joyce, is assified EX-90 and has two Words over 30,000 pounds of milk, •4 a lifetime record of 223,151 Minds of milk to date. She resentlv has 13 sons in A.I. around eworld % and Glen Henry also con ned the second highest selling hi, Henry-Acres Valiant Elissa- T. This calf, which has almost the ®ie pedigree as the highest hhng calf, sold for $3,100 to Five Sections But the underlying theme cen tered around the whole herd buyout program and the an ticipated producer sign-up. With the conference held just three days before the March-28 announcement of accepted bids, attendees sought to predict the program’s future outcome. Speaking before an audience of 200 cooperative, university and agribusiness leaders, economist Andrew Novakovic reviewed the whole herd buyout program and cautiously offered his predictions. “We’ll make a lot of progress with this program,” Novakovic said, “but it won’t be the solution in 1986.” The Cornell University professor based his prediction on current milk production, which continues to climb. For 1986, Novakovic estimates that total U.S. milk production will reach 149 billion Jeff Harding, PHA staff; (left) consignor Roy Henry, and sale chairman Lewis Berkley stand with the top selling calf, Henry-Acres Valiant, who sold for $3,400. At the lead is June Bechtel. Michael J. Allen, Jefferson, MD. The dam for this December calf is Middessa Rorae Ela. She is a gold medal dam classified EX-92. Consignment numbers 115 and 66 received the next highest bid of $1,700. Both of these calves were also sold to Hilmar Holskins, Hilmar CA. One point these four top calves have in common is Round Oak Apple Elevation is their maternal grandsire. Number 66, Ray-Mc Chairman Pride Jade is the daughter of Cal- Lancaster Farming, Saturday, March 29,1986 pounds, compared to 144 billion pounds in 1985. “If we go below 1985 levels, we’ll be lucky,” he said, adding that production may begin declining at the end of the year when the effects of the buyout program are felt. USDA economist Clifford Car man echoes Novakovic’s predictions. In addressing the dairy situation and outlook, Carman said production will be at a dowA turn at the end of 1986. “WJe’re unlikely to hold 1986 production at 1985 production,” he said- “The cows and milk (of the buyout program) will not be out until 1987.” On the price side of dairying, farmers can expect lower milk prices during the second half of 1986 than the second half of 1985. Generally, prices will be down between 45 and 85 cents, Carman said. Clark Board Chairman and was consigned by Ray McMillen and Sons, Loysville. “Jade’s” dam has one record over 30,000 pounds of milk. As a 10 year old, she produced a 309 day record of 28,138 M, 1,075 F, with a 3.7 test. S-W-D Valiant is the sire for lot number, consigned by Loren L. and Helen M. Zimmerman, East Earl. This consignments dam is Zimhaven Elevation Jolly. The unofficial sale average on 100 head was $840.50. The sale was managed by Backus Associates, Mexico, NY. The barn crew and leadsmen for the sale were from the Dairy Societies of Penn State and Delaware Valley College. The bred heifers and young cows scheduled for sale Friday were out of the finest bulls and dams m the breed . . . Rotate, Astronaut, Chairman and Tony daughters from excellent dams with 20,000 plus pounds of milk. Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University, outlines his thoughts on the impact of the 1985 Farm Bill. But the key to prices, Novakovic said, will depend on the buyout program. With this said, he opened up discussion among the dairy* leaders, questioning the signup in the individual northeastern states. In volunteering the information they had, conference participants indicated that the signup in these states averaged between 12 and 26 percent of total dairy herds. From these figures, Novakovic said, the northeast “clearly has an interest in this program, but the signup is not as high as the rest of the country." The bids in the northeast ranged somewhere between $4.90 and $350. February milk output up seven percent WASHINGTON - U. S. milk production surpassed year-earlier levels once again in February, completing 12 consecutive months of production increases. The nation’s February milk output was 11.3 billion pounds, seven percent higher than in February 1985. Cow numbers in January climbed about three percent over 1985 levels, to 11.1 million, while The sale session always reaches its peak in March. In this issue find complete sale reports on the Exclusive Sale on A -23, Red and White Sale on A-22, York Calfarama on A-35 and PA on Parade on A-1. f 7.50 per Year the leader suggested. But what level will be the cutoff for ac ceptance! guess,” Novakovic said, "is they won’t take bids over $20.” If the number of bids accepted does not reach 10 billion pounds of milk equivalent, a second signup period is likely, Novakovic said. The goal of the current ad ministration is to reduce the surplus by 12 billion pounds of milk equivalent. “And if the buyout program doesn’t work, what next 9 ” Novakovic quizzed his audience. “Quotas? We’ll probably have to think about it.” production per cow was up four percent to 1,015 pounds. In Pennsylvania, production was up four percent to 791 million pounds, tying the production record for the month set in February 1984. Cow numbers averaged 739,000, or 4,000 more than year-earlier totals, and production per cow was up 40 pounds, to 1,070.
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