COLLEGE PARK, MD - One
might look at the U.S. meat
production complex and ask “Why
are broilers and turkeys faring'so
much better than beef and pork?”
Various explanations are being
offered, but no one explanation is
the complete answer.
Over the past several years, a
number of things have occurred.
Americans have reputedly become
more health-conscious and cut
back on red meat consumption
because of dietary health questions
on meat and fat.
During the past year, red meat
retailers have tended to set a
“margin target” to be made
regardless of demand and price.
Poultry has benefited from the big
health discussion.
But probably most important,
the poultry industry has responded
and catered to consumer desires
on every level from fast food of
ferings to a wide ranging array of
further-processed selections in the
grocery store targeting time
pressed consumers.
Broilers
There have been record-large
total meat supplies since 1963. A
predicted reduction in red meat
supplies during the first half of 1965
never materialized. The cheaper
feed that enticed beef and pork
producers to maintain production
and withhold animals from market
also encouraged higher broiler
production.
Broiler production during 1984
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Poultry outlook for ’B6
was 5 percent higher than 1963, and
production during 1965 will be
about 5 percent higher than 1984.
Cattle and hog prices remained
depressed during most of 1985.
While a far cry from the 55-cent
1984 average price, broiler prices
have averaged from 47 to 52 cents
this year. In contrast to beef and
pork producers, broiler firms
generally covered their costs.
Despite decreases in hog and fed
cattle members, there wiU still be
plenty of red meat available, and
that should continue to hold broiler
prices in check.
Combined with an ever
increasing broiler production,
these red meat supplies will
probably keep broiler prices under
50 cents during the final quarter.
The 1985 broiler price peak was
about 55 cents during early Sep
tember.
If broiler house capacity had
kept pace with broiler firm
aspirations, these firms would
probably be over-producing and
facing below cost prices already.
Between low feed costs and
newly, completed broiler houses,
the broiler industry is likely to
become over-aggressive in early
1986, leading to its own price
downfall and negative returns.
Beef production is expected to be
down in 1986. Hog numbers will be
down, but a pick-up in pork
production could occur in the final
months of 1986. The slackening in
beef and pork production may be
VAN PALE
sufficient for the broiler industry
to salvage positive returns in 1986
despite an expected 5 to 6 percent
increase in broiler production.
Turkeys
Since turkey processors broke up
the stereotype of turkey meat
being a “once-a-year treat”,
consumption has responded in a"
positive manner and price has
remained on a favorable level. The
positive returns to turkey
producers during the last half of
1964 and during 1965 has en
couraged expansion.
Turkey production will be about
6 percent higher in 1965 than in
1964, spearheaded by a 12 percent
increase in the first quarter
compared to that quarter com
pared to that quarter in 1964. The
1985 annual average price will be
around 70 cents, down only 4 to 5
cents despite a hefty production
increase.
Overoptimism may take its toll
in 1966. Output is likely to increase
5 to 7 percent over 1965. Pork
production is expected to pick up
again in late 1986. Thus, more red
meat will compete with increased
turkey and broiler supplies, for
cing turkey prices lower.
If. too many turkeys go into
storage to avoid the lower price,
cold storage holdings could be
burdensome on prices in 1967.
Fourth quarter 1985 prices
averaged 70 to 74 cents. With the
expected increase in production,
1986 prices will average in the mid-
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Lancaster Farming, Saturday, January 11,1985-El7
60’s.
Eggs
It was just too good to resist, so
egg producers didn’t resist. Layer
numbers had been low, egg prices
were high and feed costs were
coming down. Everybody got into
the act with productive
replacements.
The resulting larger and more
productive national laying flock
pushed egg production up and egg
prices down in 1985. Several
months of marginal or below-cost
returns have induced a cut-back in
layer numbers.
After a delayed reaction, egg
Cargill to add four
research stations
MINNEAPOLIS - The Seed
Division of Cargill will expand its
research capabilities by adding
com research stations at Lansing,
Mich., and Evansville, Ind.
Sorghum research stations will be
added at Seward, Neb., and Corpus
Christi, Texas.
Bruce Priebe, president of
Cargill’s Seed Division, said the
new locations represent the
company’s commitment to develop
higher-welding com and sorghum
hybrids for its Cargill, PAG and
Paymaster brands. Breeding work
at the new stations will begin next
spring.
“With the addition of these
locations, we will have 19 research
stations throughout the United
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production bat also slacked off end
allowed prion to meter to a
break-even lord or bettor.
Ea« Droducera not only reduced
their production flock numbers,
they also cut bade on replacement
orders. These cut-backs are being
reflected in fourth quarter IMS and
will carry over into 1908.
Egg production will be down
about 1 percent in late IMS and will
probably stay down sufficiently
during IMS for prices to improve.
The outlook is for the IMS price to
average 67 to 73 cents per dozen,
about 7 cents better than the IMS
average price.
States that develop hybrid com,
sunflowers, sorghum, wheat and
cotton. The new stations will help
us improve our hybrid line for an
even broader range of maturities,”
he said.
Priebe said the new com station
at Lansing will concentrate on
development of early season
hybrids while the Evansville
station will develop late-season
hybrids. Work at the Seward, Neb.,
sorghum station will include
development of early and medium
maturity hybrids while the Corpus
Christi station will develop late
season sorghum hybrids.
Cotton breeding projects
previously conducted at Temple,
Texas, now will be conducted at
Corpus Christi, Priebe added.
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