ST. LOUIS - Farmers won’t be
the only ones suffering if the new
1985 Farm Bill reduces net farm
income. U.S. consumers could find
themselves paying higher interest
rates while the nation suffers from
slower general economic growth,
higher unemployment and an
increase in the federal deficit.
That’s the upshot of a report
from Wharton Econometric
Forecasting Associates of
Philadelphia. Agricultural in
terests hope this new material will
persuade Congress to carefully
Weakened dollar may boost
exports, Farm Bureau says
PARK RIDGE, 11. - The value
of the U.S. dollar has dropped
steadily in recent months kindling
farm hopes that U.S. agricultural
exports will again rebound. The
dollar is at its lowest level in 10
months and down sharply from its
peak in March.
“Our exchange rate is getting
back into a more reasonable
relationship with the world,” said
Ross Korves, economist for the
American Farm Bureau
Federation. “We’re in a better
position to sell our products on the
world markets. At the same time,
we don’t expect our input costs to
increase so our competitive
position should definitely im
prove.” U.S. agricultural exports
in 1985 are expected to total $34
billion, down sharply from a high
of $43 billion in 1981.
Korves said the dollar could
continue its drop with an overall
decline of as much as 20 percent
from the peak reached in March,
1985. He cautioned, however, that a
weakening of the dollar will not be
the total solution to the nation’s
export problems. “The strong'
dollar wasn’t all the problem,
Three honored
WASHINGTON - Honors went
to three individuals for their
contributions to U.S. Department
of Agriculture programs fostering
international cooperation and
efforts to combat hunger in the
developing world.
In ceremonies at USDA, Joan
Wallace, administrator .of the
department’s Office of In
ternational Cooperation and
Development, presented the
awards to;
-John Moore, University of
Maryland, for working to improve
the managementof development
projects and promote scientific
exchanges on agriculture between
the United States and other
nations;
--Eugene Nasir, professor
emeritus at Gordon College,
Rawalpindi, Pakistan, for 20 years
of research on USDA projects in
Pakistan and his outstanding
contribution to the study of crops
and plants in his country; and
-Larry Zuidema, Cornell
University, for improving
cooperation between USDA and
the university community in
training programs to strengthen
agriculture in the developing
world.
“We’re grateful to the univer
sities for the tremendous
dedication they’ve shown to
USDA’s efforts in agricultural
cooperation and development,”
said Wallace. “Each individual
receiving an award today has
played a key role in designing or
carrying out these efforts.”
Consumers to suffer if farm income drops
consider the economy-wide im
pacts of a rapid reduction in farm
support levels.
“For years we’ve told urban
congressmen even though farmers
are only three percent of the
population, we have a big effect on
the total economy. But we’ve never
before had the economic evidence
which this study provides,” ex
plains Varel Bailey, President of
the National Corn Growers
Association (NCGA), which
commissioned the Wharton Study.
therefore a change in the value of
the dollar will not prove to be the
total solution,” said Korves.
“If we don’t see real economic
growth in the middle income
countries such as Mexico, South
Korea and the middle eastern
nations that have the greatest
potential to increase food con
sumption, there will still be no
place for our products to go. Other
agricultural countries are'
producing for world markets and
pricing their products to gain entry
to those markets. That production
will be there even with a weakened
dollar,” said the economist for the
nation’s largest farm organization.
“We should not expect to return
to the boom export conditions
which existed in mid and late
1970’5. Yet, there is more room for
optimism in the next four years
compared with the past four
years,” Korves added.
“American agriculture needs
expanding markets. These
markets must come from outside
the U.S. and outside the traditional
trading partners of Western
Europe, Japan and the USSR.
These are still important markets,
but not major growth markets,”
Korves added.
Public Auction Register
AUGUST 340, 5 mis., E. of Lan-
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Fr o ider?ck L ° Ca Co d Managed by Gordon &
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FRI. AUG. 9 ■ BPM D.S.T. S
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SHORT NOTICE
DAIRY DISPERSAL
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Having decided to discontinue dairy,
we have been commissioned to sell on
At the farm on Ulster-North Rome Rd.,
3 miles east of Ulster, Pa. or 6 miles west
of Rome, Pa.
48 HIGH GRADE DAIRY COWS
48 Cows in various stages of lactation in a
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Owners
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Sales Manager & Auctioneer
Bailey’s “evidence” is a com
prehensive four-phase research
effort involving several in
stitutions:
• Farm Journal magazine
conducted a national survey which
determined agricultural debt
status by region, type of farm and
type of farm operator.
• The Food and Agricultural
Policy Research Institute
(FAPRI) at lowa State University
(ISU) and the University of
Missouri examined alternative
farm program designs and
estimated corresponding net farm
income levels and other per
formance measures for
agriculture.
• Phase three combined the
results of the debt survey with
those of the farm program analysis
to estimate potential shortfalls in
farm debt repayments. This effort
was done at ISU by FAPRI
economists.
• Finally, the projected farm
debt default numbers were fed into
the general economy modeling
system at Wharton to measure its
impact on the general economy.
“Congress already knew many
farmers were going bankrupt,”
says Bailey. “To get more at
tention, we had to show them our
problems would affect everyone
else, costing jobs and increasing
interest rates.”
Preliminary results of the
Wharton study are indeed
significant, says Bailey. For
example, interest rates paid by
consumers could go up one to two
percentage points by 1987 unless
Closing Date Monday 6 00PM
ol each week s publication
FRIDAY EVENING. AUGUST 9
At 7:30 P.M
EARL & EDNA COLE,
farm income is maintained at its
current level. This substantial
increase in short-term loan costs
would have negative impacts on
the automotive, housing and other
industries which are strongly
influenced by interest rates.
The elimination of urban-area
jobs is another consequence of the
unresolved farm financial crisis.
Wharton estimates that up to
375,000 jobs outside of agriculture
could be lost. That’s three out-of
work consumers for each job lost
in the agricultural sector. The
study also projects the national
debt could swell an additional $2O
billion averaging about $5 billion
per year during the latter part of
the decade.
These potential “costs” to the
general economy are likely to be
higher than the estimated costs of
preventative measures points out
Bailey.
Inter-State 14 schedules picnic
SOUTHAMPTON - Inter-State
Milk Producers’ Cooperative
District 14 has scheduled its annual
picnic at Knoebels Grove,
Elysburg, for Wednesday, Aug. 7.
James R. Barnett, Inter-State’s
member relations manager, will
be the guest speaker.
Picnic registration will begin at
11 a.m. in pavilion “U.” Milk and
ice cream will be provided.
Inter-State District 14 covers
KHIGH BROS.
411 Centerville Rd.
Gordonvillfe, PA 17529
IPuHiwl 717-354-0301
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INTRODUCING
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DEALERS RECOMMEND
Armed with preliminary in
formation, the NCGA along with
the involved economists have been
briefing congressional farm
leaders on the four-phase study.
“Hopefully, this information will
receive the attention of urban
Congressmen and the national
media,” says Bailey.
“Congress is faced with a dif
ficult choice in writing the 1965
Farmßill," adds Bailey. “Some
farm bill proposals recommend
immediate adoption of a strict
market-oriented approach with
reduced farm supports. That
would not only put agriculture in a
precarious financial position, but
also create problems for the whole
economy.”
The Wharton study was com
missioned by NCGA and funded by
two seed companies, NC +
Hybrids and Pioneer Hi-Bred
International, Inc.
Clinton, Columbia, Luzerne,
Lycoming, Montour, Sullivan and
Union counties and parts of Centre,
Northumberland and Synder
counties.
Inter-State Milk Producers’
Cooperative represents about 3,000
dairy farm families in Penn
sylvania, New Jersey, Delaware,
Maryland, Virginia and West
Virginia. The cooperative
marketed more than 2.48 billion
pounds of milk in fiscal 1984.
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