A26-Uncast«r Farming, Saturday, April 6,1985
Bovine growth hormone to revolutionize dairy economy
BY WENDY WEHR
BALTIMORE An oppressive
silence weighed heavily over the
crowd. Little more could be said as
the discussion about bovine growth
hormone and new dairy
technologies concluded at this
week’s Northeast Dairy Con
ference.
The dairy industry leaders knew
that the time had come to face up
to the radical production increases
that will soon alter the very
essence of world dairy production.
Bovine growth hormone, which
can increase milk production up to
40 percent, will be commercially
available in 1987 or 1988, said Dr.
Robert Kalter, chairman of the
Department of Agricultural
Economics, Cornell University.
And within three years of its
initial marketing, the growth
hormone will be adopted by 95
percent of dairy farmers, predicts
Kalter. Consequently, dairy farm
numbers could plummet by a
minimum of 25 percent.
Kalter was one of several dairy
experts who reported on the
revolutionary bovine growth
hormone during the well-attended
Northeast Dairy Conference, held
April 1-2 in Baltimore.
While opinions differed on
probable FDA approval of the
hormone, the potential production
gains that will result, and the
degree of economic change that
the industry will undergo, no one
could argue with the emerging
trends and their implications for
world-wide dairying.
“I want to alert this group and
others to the major public and
private policy decisions to be made
before this product comes on the
market,” Kalter emphasized.
Dairy leaders should be thinking
about growth hormone and other
technological advances now, while
the 1985 Farm Bill is being for
mulated.
“Unprecedented magnitude
adjustment”
Of all the conference speakers,
Kalter predicted the greatest
upheaval m the industry with the
advent of biosynthetic bovine
growth hormone. He estimates
that the size of the national dairy
herd could drop from 11.2 million
Who’s pitching?
(Continued from Page Al)
said Jeffords, “the dominant
factor in the next Farm Bill will be
whether Reagan and the grain
farmers of the Midwest can come
loan agreement.”
But Robinson cautioned that a
ceiling on farm expenditures by
the budget committees could pit
commodity against commodity.
The result would be more pressure
on the dairy industry to find a
program that doesn’t cost too
cow;, to as lc'< «s 8 in., .
percent decline
At the same time, the number of
dairy farms may dwindle by a
minimum of 25 percent.
In recent research at Cornell,
daily shots of the hormone boosted
cows’ milk yield up to 41 percent
during a 118-day period covering
the last two-thirds of lactation.
Kalter reminded the conferees that
the 40 percent increase during the
time of injection translates into a
25 percent increase over a 300-day
lactation.
Kalter made his projections
based on a study he is heading,
which focuses on a series of
economic questions, including cost
of commercial production of the
growth hormone (methionyl
bovine somatotropin or MBS),
market prices of the product,
impacts on farm profits, the farm
management implications of its
use, and the adoption rate of the
technology by dairy farmers.
In Kalter’s view, commercial
use of growth hormone may be
approved by FDA by 1987 or 1988.
FDA must assess the long-term
safety of the treated animals and
of the animal products sold for
human consumption.
Dr. Robert Collier, a University
of Florida animal sciqptist who
told the conference participants
about the mode of action of the
growth hormone, is also optimistic
about FDA approval. “There’s no
reason this product can’t come to
market," said Collier.
Surveys of more than 1,000 New
York dairy farmers also indicate
the strong possibility of rapid
adoption of the new technology.
“If 80 to 90 percent of the dairy
farmers, as indicated by survey
results, adopt the technology
within the first three years
following the commercial in
troduction of the hormone, un
precedented implications for farm
management, milk markets,
prices, and the structure of the
dairy industry will follow,” Kalter
said.
“The magnitude of this ad
justment and its timing will
depend on cows’ production
response, the rate of adoption, and
Ihe level and scope of government
price support program for milk,”
much. Strike two
Furthermore, insisted Robinson,
the Northeast dairy farmers will
have little representation when the
compromise Farm Bill is finally
formulated.
"There is no clear front runner
on bills that are being considered,”
said Robinson. "Before the Ad
ministration’s bill used to have the
inside track, but it’s no secret that
the bill submitted by the White -
House is mainly a bargaining chip
Kallu , ‘Many farmers,
however, will profit from this new
technology within three to five
years after its introduction.”
Changes in feed requirements
will occur with use of growth
hormone. Requirements for high
protem feed concentrates may
increase from 30 to 110 percent. As
a result, cropping patterns may
change to accommodate the need
for more nutrients.
u JO
Although the cost of the hormone
to the farmers is still unknown and
ration costs may go up, Kalter
indicated that, assuming stable
milk prices, farm returns over
production costs would increase up
to 26 percent, depending on farm
characteristics and extra milk
produced.
The early innovators, excellent
managers, and farmers with good
soil resources will be the winners
in the dairy production game, said
Kalter. Among the losers will be
the highly leveraged farmers.
Impact of technology in Northeast
Dr. Lew Mix, director of farm
management research and
development for Agway, Inc,, also
addressed the implications of
bovine growth hormone and new
technologies. He was not as quick
to assume the rapid adoption of
growth hormone by dairymen, but
he too warned that vast changes in
the industry are imminent.
“In my projections, I assume
that 65 percent of dairymen will be
using it (bovine growth hormone)
by 1995 and by 2000 about 90 per
cent of the cows will be injected
with the hormone,” said Mix.
He also stressed that an average
increase in production is assumed
to be 15 percent per cow per year
due to the growth hormone.
“Average production per cow as
a combined result of genetic im
provement, improved feeding and
management and use of the growth
hormone will reach an estimated
13,804 pound average level by 1990,
15,639 by 1995, and 17,025 pounds by
2000 in the Northeastern states,”
reported Mix, adding that his was
a “very, very conservative
estimate.”
“Even if bovine growth hormone
were not approved, we would still
reach an average of 17,000
that has no basis of suooort in
either the House or the Senate. The
Administration's bill is dead."
That means the Farm Bill will be
written in Congress, outlined
Robinson, and will ultimately be
hashed out by a conference
committee composed of the
members of the Senate arid House
ag committees. Both committees
are dominated by Southern and
Midwest congressmen. Strike
three.
But will it be three strikes and
you’re out for the Northeast
dairymen’ Maybe, but there’s still
the very real possibility that the
game will be called on account of
rain All the dairy policy experts at
the conference admitted that
there’s a real chance that no Farm
Bill at all will emerge in 1985.
Both Jeffords and Robinson, as
well as USDA’s Floyd Gaibler, who
gave the Administration’s point of
view during the conference,
predicted a freeze on what’s in
place now, giving the dairy far
mers an $ll 60 price through next
year
While they'd like to give farmers
$12.10, added Jeffords, they want a
program that will come in below
the $1 6 billion budget con
sideration An $11.60 support price
will meet that qualification.
Whether the dairy policy game is
played in 1985 or 1986, the con
ference participants agreed that
the Northeast dairy farmers are
coming into the compromise game
with a handicap Maybe this
week's spring training will help
them face up to and overcome
Bob Kalter, a Cornell University ag economist, had some
startling observations for the Northeast Dairy Conference
participants. The number of dairy farms will dwindle a '
minimum of 25 percent with the advent of bovine growth
hormone.
pounds,” declared Mix.
Taking into account population
and demographic changes in the
Northeast, shifts in per capita
consumption and production per
cow, Mix estimated the ap
proximate number of dairy cows
and dairy farms required by the
year 2000.
The number of dairy cows in the
Northeast may drop from 2,226,000
in 1983 to 1,737,000 in 2000, a drop of
489,000 head or 22 percent. The
number of commercial dairy
farms in the Northeast may drop
from 35,739 in 1983 to 21,716 in 2000,
a drop of 14,023 farms or 39 per
cent.
“The potential impact of these
reductions on Northeastern
agriculture and agri-business and
the regional economy are
tremendous,” added Mix. Among
his other projections for the
Northeast from 1983 to 2000 were:
•Average number of cows per
farm up from 62 to 80.
•Capital investment per cow up
from $5,500 to $16,240.
•r»nital r>pr dairv farm worker
Delaware Valley slates
37th annual “A Day”
DOYLESTOWN - A-Day, a two
day annual open house at
Delaware Valley College will be
held rain or shine on Saturday and
Sunday, April 27-28 from 9 a.m. to 5
p.m. both days. Admission is free.
A-Day is a popular event at
tracting thousands of visitors to
the campus each year. One of the
early springtime events in the
Central Bucks County area, A-Day
offers something for every
member of the family.
The campus is turned into an
exposition as students present
exhibits relating to the various
course offerings of the College.
Beef and dairy cattle as well as
sheep and swine are on display and
visitors will be treated to various
animal judging contests
throughout the weekend. A horse
show and a small animal
laboratory exhibit round out the
features of the Animal Science
Division.
An extensive Flower and Garden
Show as well as greenhouse
displays will be presented by the
Ornamental Horticulture
department. Many types of early
up from $148,500 to $568,400.
•Cows per worker up 27 to 35.
•Milk sales per worker up from
337,500 pounds to 588,000.
•On-farm microcomputer use up
from three percent to 60 percent.
While Mix admitted the scenario
he presented was rather
pessimistic for the Northeast dairy
industry, he also called for leaders
of the industry to get together and
‘make some things happen instead
of watch them happen.”
He advocated improved product
quality, innovative new products,
intensive advertising and sales
promotion and aggressive
marketing to increase per capita
consumption, and ultimately
improve those projections for the
year 2000.
“I submit to you that the dairy
industry has a challenge to achieve
these goals to help maintain a
viable northeastern agriculture. It
can be accomplished if we plan
carefully, lay out a course of ac
tion, then act to make it happen,”
concluded Mix.
the home garden will be on sale
during the weekend.
The various classroom and
laboratory buildings will be open
for tours and will feature displays
in Biology, Chemistry, Food
Science, Business Administration,
Agronomy and Horticulture.
Honey bees and honey products
will be another popular exhibit and
various other special features,
including an art show, will be of
fered at this 37th annual A-Day
event.
Food stands and a chicken
barbeque will help satisfy the taste
buds and the kids will enjoy the
hay and pony rides.
Some of the special events will
include Band and Chorale concerts
and contests in log sawing, pie
eating, canoe jousting and a
milking competition.
A-Day is a fun time for the entire
family and provides a special
environment for an outdoor
weekend.
All events will be held on the
College’s campus on Route 202, one
mile west of Doylestown, Penny