Al2-UncMt«r Farming, Saturday, Dacambar 29,1984
What’s ahead for ’B5
(Continued from Page Al)
well. “I’m not overly optimistic
about agriculture, and one of the
reasons is that we continue to
produce more than we can sell,”
says the economist.
Moore points out that, “although
dairy farmers have reacted well to
the diversion program, resulting in
a three-percent decrease in
production, supply and demand
are still, not in balance.” The
economist states that much
depends on farmer response when
the diversion program comes to an
end in March. And one statistic
that he finds disturbing is the
record number of replacement
heifers available, as revealed by
the July 1, livestock inventory.
This potential supply of new
“milk machines”, combined with
the fact that many eastern sup
pliers have been calling for extra
milk, may only serve to compound
the overproduction problem.
One bright spot on the dairy
scene, says Moore, is the four to
five-percent increase in demand
that has reduced government
purchases by nearly SO percent and
triggered slight increases in the
price of milk this fall. The
economist expects this upward
trend to continue into the spring.
But Moore sees no such increase
in demand for grains, with few
export prospects other than the
Soviet Union. The economist cites
the strong U.S. dollar, along with a
general expansion of grain
production throughout the world,
as reasons for the poor demand for
U.S. grain.
“Even Saudi Arabia is growing
subsidized wheat,” says Moore,
pointing out that many of the
traditional grain importing
countries not only grow their own
grain now, but export as well.
Though the grain market may
appear uncertain on a nationwide
basis, Penn State agronomist,
Elwood Hatley, feels that Penn
sylvania’s large numbers of lives
tock will stabilize the Keystone
State’s grain economy. “Even
during the PIK program, corn
acreage in Pennsylvania dropped
very little,” says Hatley, adding
that corn is the backbone of the
state’s feeding program.
Hatley feels that there is
potential for more corn acreage
next year at the expense of
soybeans, although he expects
soybean acreage to remain close to
this year’s 200,000-acre figure.
’We’ll have less pork and beef
tor 1985, and that’s good news,’’
says Moore, noting that cow/calf
operators have cut the herd by one
percent, with a similar trend oc
curring m the swine industry as
well.
Moore expects the poultry in- t
dustry to continue to expand
sharply, with broiler production
rising as much as seven to eight
percent in the coming year.
“There’s no question that prices
will be on the defensive,” he says
As with most economists, Moore
feels that the 1965 Farm Bill may
have a profound affect on
agriculture. “If loan values and
target prices on grain are taken
away, for example, then livestock
will become more profitable."
Like economist Louis Moore, the
Grange’s legislative director,
Brenda Burd, thinks that next
year’s Farm Bill will do much to
shape the future of agriculture.
Burd said that the Grange is
supporting regional price controls
for the dairy industry in order to
make the program more
responsive to specific areas of the
country. Such prices should also be
tied to supply and demand.
On other legislative fronts, the
Grange will also be pressing for a
feed assessment tax to be levied on
buyers and matched by the state.
The resulting fund could finance
animal disease research and in
demnity programs.
Other Grange legislative
priorities will include the Bottle
Bill, prompt payment for com
modities, animal health research,
legislation protecting producers
from harassment by animal
welfare groups, and legislation
limiting foreign investment. Burd
also predicts a push for a com
prehensive water bill aimed at
keeping the water supply clean for
farmers and rural residents.
Lancaster County Extension
director, Jay Irwin, also feels that
clean water will be a central issue
during the coming year.
“Farmers aren’t just looking to
the bay, ” says Irwin, “they’re also
concerned about stopping erosion
on their own farms.”
Nevertheless, the Chesapeake
bay will continue to be a major
issue for Pa. farms lying within the
bay’s vast watershed. And Lan
caster County’s role in the cleanup
effort will be crucial, says Irwin,
noting that, with a manure
production of 27 tons per cultivated
acre, the county is far above the
state-wide average of 4.3 tons per
acre.
“I don’t think that a cutback in
animal units will be the answer,”
says Irwin, pointing out that
farmers with fixed costs are forced
to add cows when the milk check
decreases. The extension director
feels that technology will provide
other outlets for the excess
manure.
Irwin foresees no big decline in
beef and pork consumption despite
the anti-red meat sentiment ex
pressed by the health food sector.
He does feel, however, that the
pressure to promote their products
will intensify as each segment of
the livestock industry strives for a
larger percentage of the con
sumer’s dollar.
All in all, Irwin is optimistic
about the state’s agriculture for
1985, particularly in his own
Lancaster County. He cites the
county’s proximity to markets,
excellent soil, a strong work ethic
and the ability of farmers to
rebound following the 1983 drought
and this year’s avian influenza
epidemic, as reasons for his op
timism.
"We came through the worst
outbreak of avian flu in history,
and by the end of the year, I’d say
we’ll be 95 to 98 percent
recovered,” Irwin says with pride,
adding that the current state of the
county’s poultry industry is a
tribute to its farmers.
Jay Irwin admits, though, that
all bets are off, concerning the 1985
outlook, if the weather fails to
cooperate.
As well as being the single most
important variable in agriculture,
Mother Nature continues to be the
least predictable, admits Penn
State meteorologist, Paul Knight.
“Monthly, seasonal and annual
forcasts are not reliable at all,”
says Knight, who points out that
much research is currently un
derway in the field of long-range
forecasting.
Venturing an educated guess,
Knight says that statistics favor a
winter of above-normal tem
peratures. The scientist points out
that this fall’s monthly tem
peratures have alternated between
cold and warm, with September
colder than normal, October above
normal and so on. He expects that
this pattern may continue
throughout the winter, with
January ushering in frigid tem
peratures.
Trying to pin a meteorologist
down to longer range predictions
yields predictable results.
“It will be warm on the 4th of
July, and cold next Christmas,”
chuckles Knight. “And it will rain
on your next picnic.”
Looking back at ’B4
production throughout the 15-
month program.
In May, the USDA approved a
voluntary Pa. Milk Marketing
Program, under which producers
could receive credit against the
mandatory 15-cent federal
assessment on milk. As much as 10
cents of that assessment could be
earmarked for milk promotion. By
June, over 1,000 dairymen had
volunteered for the program.
The Pa. Dairy Promotion Ad
visory Board went to work to
promote milk consumption. They
contracted with a Pittsburgh
advertising firm to create an
extensive promotion campaign.
* rrirulture’s need to strike a
.«mce between supply and
demand was also reflected in the
poultry industry’s decision in
September to draft a marketing
order. A nationwide survey in
dicated that most producers favor
some kind marketing order but
have differing opinions about the
content of such an order.
Gov. Thornburgh was also doing
his part to promote Pennsylvania
agriculture. In his budget he
allocated $lOO,OOO for a new Ag
Development Commission to
promote agriculture.
The Pa. state legislators were
busy deciding on a number of
agricultural bills. At a joint
meeting of the Senate and Hoc-o
Rural Affairs Committee in
March, Pennsylvania’s vanishing
farmland lead the discussion
topics. The state loses 16,500 acres
of agricultural land annually.
Discussion on the Pennsylvania
Bottle Bill came to the forefront in
September, when beverage in
dustry and agriculture
representatives aired opposite
opinions on the bill.
Also in September, the Depart
ment of Environmental Resources
asked farmers to voluntarily help
with the Chesapeake Bay clean-up
(Continued from Page Al)
help poultry farmers hit with the
Avian flu.
By October, the flu had finished
its devastating course and the
avian quarantine was lifted at last.
But while the avian flu was
winding down, pseudorabies in the
hog industry was on the rise. Two
new infected herds were
discovered in January, and eight
herds were quarantined and
awaiting depopulation. As the
disease raged, swine producers
lost hundreds of thousands of
dollars under the eradication
program.
Unlike the poultrymen, the pork
producers received no state or
federal indemnity.
In November, concern mounted
over the possibility that farmers
were going underground in an
effort to avoid possible financial
loss from depopulation.
Later in November, PDA’s
Bureau of Animal Industry placed
a moratorium on forced
depopulation until May 1, 1985.
During that interval, livestock
representatives will draft a report
on a new way to deal with PRV.
Meanwhile, another disease was
marching into the state. Rabies
has been on the rise in the state
with the number of reported cases
doubling during 1983 and con
tinuing to increase in 1984. By
March, there were already 44
cases reported.
While the livestock producers
were battling diseases, the
dairymen were busily working to
reduce the milk surplus through
increased promotion and
decreased production.
Sign-ups for the milk diversion
program started in January, with
many farmers showing initial
interest, but fewer than expected
committed themselves to reducing
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by instituting Best Management
Practices. Two million dollars in
state and federal funds have been
allocated to subsidize farmers who
institute BMP’s.
And of course, the year saw the
usual round of annual agricultural
events including Farm Show, Ag
Progress Days, meetings,
banquets and plenty of dairy and
livestock shows and sales.
Now is
the Time
(Continued from,Pace AlOl
unlimited federal estate tax
marital deduction. Any amount of
property can now be transferred
tax-free to a spouse at death.
However, this option should be
considered carefully. Medium and
large estates may pay more tax if
the entire estate is passed to the
surviving spouse.
Consult your attorney about
making necessary changes.
To Prepare
For Slippery
Conditions
Slippery roads, walks and steps
will be a common hazard in the
next few months. Many people use
salt too freely in cutting the ice; it
may get the job done but also may
injure nearby turf or shrubbery.
I’d suggest the use of sand or
sawdust. These materials will
make the surface safe without
possible injury to vegetation. In
areas without any vegetation, salt
will give good results. Along our
main highways there is some
evidence that the constant use of
salt is inflicting injury to nearby
trees and shrubs. Don’t let this
happen to your favorite tree,
shrub, or the turf lining your
walks.
The Extension Service Is an affirmative
action, equal opportunity education Institution.
uafonng systems
now a division o( CTB Inc
Local Representative
DAVID NEWMAN
(717) 299-9905