026—Lancaster Farming, Saturday, September 29,1984
Brockett’s Ag Advice
KL. M By John E. Brockett
JH Farm Management Agent
st~*c Lewistown Extension Office
How Much Per Acre?
One question every county agent
and area agent gets at least 10
times at this time of the year is
what is it worth? Then it could be a
standing 3rd or 4th cutting of
alfalfa that is surplus to him or is
desired by him, and he wants to
buy or sell it. Or, it could be a
standing crop of corn that someone
wants to sell or buy. These are
legitimate questions that should be
answered before the transaction
takes place. In real life the question
may be asked at any time
up to after the crop has been fed.
My stock reply is what is the
moisture level, what is the yield
and what is the quality. Of course,
the usual answer I get is, I don’t
know, I don’t know, I don’t know.
So, between us we start to
speculate and come up with the
answers. I usually try to arrive at a
range so the two parties have a
starting figure. Oh, one other
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question is who will harvest and
handle it?
Now comes the computer, so I
decided to develop a speculative
program based on the prices of
com, soybean meal, and average
alfalfa hay. With certain assump
tions, I can now give a so-called
“ball park” figure on what is it
worth. All I need to know is (a)
what is the approximate moisture
level, (b) what type of yield (fair,
good, very good) you would expect,
(c) who will harvest it, (d) the
maturity level, and (e) the crop.
From there I can give you a “ball
park” figure. I would still rather
have more exacting information,
but my experience tells me I’m not
going to get it anyway.
What About Hi Moisture Corn
Sellers have two choices in
regards to hi moisture corn. They
can sell it to the mill at a price, less
shrink dockage and perhaps
AND
INCREASE
A VV
MARTIN
WATER
Enter The Computer
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shelling and drying costs. Or they
can sell it as hi moisture corn to
someone who wants it. Buyers also
have two choices. They can buy hi
moisture com and store it, or dry
com as they need it. To arrive at a
fair and equitable price, both
parties have to consider these
alternatives and the possible
returns from each one. If the seller
or grower sells his com to a mill,
he will be paid on the basis of air
dry shell com, less a dockage for
what is called shrink. If the buyer
purchases dry com from a dealer,
he will pay market price plus a
handling fee.
Can Buyer-Seller
Get Together?
The com really is worth more to
the buyer than the seller can get
for it. On the other hand, the buyer
must pay for storage and may
have to pay interest on money
borrowed to pay for the corn from
the tune he receives it until it is
fed.
In my program I call the final
return received by the grower the
Growers Net. The feed value based
on market price of dry shell com is
called Feed value. Somewhere in
between the two figures is a
compromise price that will be
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profitable to both parties. If you
are negotiating a price with a
neighbor, send to me the market
price of dry shell corn, the shrink
factor your mill uses, and the
drying and shelling cost your mill
charges. I’ll send to you a print out
of the Grower" XT *'* and Feed Value
Soybean stocks down
HARRISBURG Pennsylvania
soybean stocks totaled 178,000
bushels on Sept. 1, down 64 percent
from a year, according to the
Pennsylvania Crop and Livestock
Reporting Service. Stocks on
farms, at 174,000 bushels, were
down 41 percent and off-farm
stocks, at 4,000 bushels, were down
98 percent from September 1983.
Nationally, the Sept. 1, 1984
carryover of old crop soybeans into
the 1984-85 marketing year totaled
175 million bushels, 49 percent
below last year and 31 percent
below September 1982. Soybean
stocks on-farms, at 68.3 million
bushels, were down 42 percent and
off-farm stocks, at 107 million
bushels, were down 53 percent
from September 1983.
Preliminary soybean usage
FOR FARMERS
BUSINESS MEN’S ASSURANCE
1301 N. Hamilton Street, Suite 106
Richmond, VA 23230
(804)355-7447
Bob Wehking, Manager
Serving more than 50,000agri -producers
SALES CAREER OPPORTUNITIES AVAILABLE
Write cr Contact in Confidence - Bob Webking at the above address
at 7 moisture levels.
Available Program
Either program available if
you have an Apple II and Visi Calc.
Write or call me - (many extension
offices also have both programs -
contact them first).
(quantities exported, crushed and
used for seed and feed) during the
marketing year, September 1983 -
August 1984, totaled 1.8 billion
bushels.
When usage is subtracted from
the beginning supply, an indicated
September 1, 1984 stocks level of
about 120 million bushels is ob
tained. The difference between the
derived September 1 stocks level of
120 million bushels and the official
USDA stocks estimate of 175
million bushels based on Sep
tember 1,1984 stocks survey data,
indicates the current 1983
production estimate of 1.6 million
bushels may be low by three to four
percent. Revisions for 1983
national and state production
estimates will be published in the
October 11,1984 production report.
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Dave Hamaker
■i** jm
Richard Murphy