A24—Lancaster Fanning, Saturday, Sftantbar 1,1984
Look into Futures
Peter D. Forbes
THOMSON MCKINNON SECURITIES INC.
GRAINS
The recent surge in export
business is a welcome change from
the past year when expectations
failed to be met. Continued heavy
buying from Russia, China and
Japan have invigorated grain
markets.
Basis levels have strengthened
as commercial handlers try to
induce farmers to sell their
remaining grain. Exporters will be
hard pressed to fulfill com
mitments to Russia for shipment in
September and October due to the
lack of old crop supplies. Another
reason for the continued strength
in basis (number of cents the cash
price is above Chicago futures) is
that much of the remaining com is
locked up in the farmer owned
reserve 5 where 321 million bushels
still exist. A five day average cash
price of 3.25 in the midwest would
be required to release these sup
plies to the market.
This week Bridgewater
Associates, a crop forecasting
group, reduced its U.S. production
estimates for com to 7.467 billion
bushels and for soybeans to 2.00
billion, down from last week’s
estimates of 7.492 and 2.01. Yields
are projected at 105 for com and
29.9 for soybeans. Some
agronomists expect further
deterioration in the combelt,
especially in soybeans unless
rainfall occurs in the next week
this deterioration despite the
expected cooler temperatures.
A further note of the export
market the USDA is projecting
that East Asian countries (Korea,
Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan)
will become the number one U.S.
agricultural market for this year.
The region may import 10.9 billion
dollars in U.S. farm products
compared with 9.7 for Western
Europe. The economic restrictions
in the EEC markets will continue
to make the Europen market a
difficult one to fully penetrate.
Soviet imports of soybeans and
especially soybean meal continue
to decline. In 1964 their imports are
down 90 percent compared to last
year. This comes in the light of
heavy herd liquidations that the
Russian’s began in late spring
when they realized their feed
producting capacity might be
severely impaired this year. Now,
the Russians are being forced to
import com and wheat, but a great
deal of this can be expected to go
for human consumption rather
than an aggressive livestock ex
pansion program.
What this means for U.S.
livestock producers is that soybean
meal prices should continue to
decline. Given that each 60 lb.
bushel of soybeans produces only
11 lbs. of oil and 48 lbs. of meal, the
current crushing to satisfy in
creasing oil demand should
produce overwhelming supplies of
meal. This should improve
livestock feeding margins greatly.
LIVESTOCK
On the East coast grain prices
should remain fairly firm due to
heavy exports and expansion in
both hogs and poultry. Industry
sources expect that broiler prices
will remain steady for the rest of
the year, around 50 to 52 cents per
pound.
Pointing to the increased retail
buying relative to both pork and
beef, poultry producers anticipate
a growing share of the meat
market. Much to the detriment of
hog and cattle feeding prospects,
consumers show an increasing
(800) 336-0241
willingness to buy cheaper non-red
meatofferings.
In the red meat markets, there is
some optimism amongst feeders
and packers due to firming cash
E.M. HERR FARM & HOME
Were Known For Our Low Prices
**M*? GRAIN BIN PAINT
-ACRYLIC MAINTENANCE PAINT.
NOW!
CONTAINS
RUST
ARRESTER
:rtz3s
#
9,000 Ft.
9,000 ft. per bale
Gross weight 40 lbs.
231 ft per lbs.
Tensile strenth - 325 lbs.
Knot Strength -130 lbs.
also available on 10,000 ft
ROUND BALE BAGS
5 Mil
White Baf Reflects
Sunlight
6% Ultra Violet Inhibitor
RUNNING GEAR
7 V === =sB W - Standard Tongue
w ' * • Adj. Wheel Base
w *6 Bolt Hubs
Reg. SAI
y Less; Wagon & Tires
J r T I- 11 HOG & CATTLE PA
HxL I -
[SPir rr cattle
48" ELECTRICAL FENCE POSTS
Jf • Round Rod Style
/ • Welded Anchor Plate
// • 25 Per Bundle
*4 Ft. High
JP SP«
■•gf Reg. 69* ea
Bundle of 25 9 14.75
prices. The markets have been
able to move a substantial number
of animals without a severe decline
in prices. Supplies of boxed beef
have cleared at the recent lower
prices and recent demand can be
attributed to replenishing of in
ventories and further confidence
that packer margins will continue
to increase.
Feed lots are being kept current,
but analysts note that the 10.00
spread between Yield Grade 4 and
Yield Grade 3 prices might in
dicate that cattle are being fed
long. But no one is claiming that
any sort of backlog is developing.
Expected good beef demand
through September should be
supportive to prices and one can
expect that steer carcass prices
should remain firmly above the
IMIS?
use
DRAINAGE PIPES
• Wet Spots • Hillside Seeps
• Curing Erosion • Root
Problems Development
• Poor Yielding • Terrace Drainage
Crops • Water Table Control
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it Brush, Roll or Spray
BALER TWINE
100% sisalana fiber
2 spools per bale
Produced under the "1.D." system:
• Uniformity • True Length
• Strength • Knot Strength
• No missing ends, multi ends,
or knots
* 1 5O or More
*l7*oo ea. 10-50 Bales
SIZE BALE
SIZE
5 Ton
6 Ton
$419.95
$499.95
* $539.95
$649.95
8 Ton
10 Ton
34”*16’
52"x16'
1.00 level. Due to poor retail
demand, a bleaker picture is
developing in the hog complex.
Large hog supplies and poor retail
featuring have steadily eroded live
hog prices. Although hog supplies
are ample, feeders have kept
current with marketings
evidenced by light market weights
averaging 232 lbs. Some
analysts fear that continued lower
prices could cause some producers
to withhold hogs which would only
delay the ultimate blowout to the
down side in prices.
The one glimmer of hope is that
these large supplies can be moved
through the retail chains without
further erosion of prices. This
would give the market a degree of
confidence it needs to start on a
strong upward trend again.
AOUAM f I OHA \atj( Tf M \
PRICE
*5.59
*7.29
1200 Lb,
1800 Lb,
*389.95
*469.95
*499.95
*599.95
lELS
*15.99
10 or more
$18.99
*16.99
10 or more
$19.99
cr Aluminum Roof Coating
r~ 1/
r SuSSmA i
f ROOF I
fc COAT I • Extra Bright
• Fibered
L j *5 Gal. Pail
Black Roof Coating
• Fibered Reg. 12.99 |
• 5 Gal. Pail 99
KENDALL UDDER CREAM
SOFTENS CHAPPED TEATS
“Contains
to soften
sunburned v
and chapped mSt §
teats and V '
udders
SALE I 4lbBoz - -SALE
?7% *s *• |?S99 ‘l2”
DUCT TAPE
2"x360 M w/purchase
28 oz,
Barn & House Paint
Red Oil Base
Red Oil Base
Red Latex
White Latex (Flat)
White Latex (Satin)
SPEEDY
CORNCRIBS
• Easy to erect
• Rods in lead of bolts
on wire mesh
Sizes
900 Bushel
WmSSum!^ 1 1200 Bushel
mgm SPECIALS EFFECTIVE
Uto*m\ THRU SEPTEMBER 8
We UPS
Anywhere
Just Call
717-464-3321
Or
Toll Free
(Area Codes
717 & 215)
SUPPLY
R.D. 1, Rte. 272 South. HerrvJße Rd.
WWow Street, Pa.
Ph0ne:(717)464-3321
Store Hours:
732-0053 Mon.-Thurs. Sat.
7:30 AM-6:00 PM 7:30 AM - 5:00 PM
Fri. 7:30 AM-9:00 PM
Another potentially bullish sign
for live hogs is the possible double
bottom formation thgt is
developing in the February pork
belly contract. If pork bellies can
be representative of the overall
tone in pork product prices, an
upward movement in bellies
should bode well for the overall
pricing structure in hogs.
Reg. 33.99
•26.99
Size
Reg.
$49.95
5 Gal.
2 Gal.
$21.95
$26.95
2 Gal.
$21.95
2 Gal.
2 Gal.
$26.95
SALE
•34“
*l6“
•19“
•16“
*l9“