Look into Futures
THOMSON MCKINNON SECURITIES INC.
GRAINS
The big news this week will be
Friday’s USDA Production
Report. By the time this article is
printed, the report will be out, but
as of Thursday afternoon, the
trade expectations were as
follows:
Com - 7.712 billions bushels.
Soybeans - 2.04 billion bushels.
Total Spring Wheat - .467 billion
bushels.
Depending on what the actual
USDA numbers are relative to the
expected, the market will trade
accordingly.
Most analysts expect that the
recent short covering in the grains
is in anticipation of the USDA
report and that once the report is
released, new selling and hedging
in the futures market will occur.
The most recent weather
forecasts are very good. The long
range forecast for the com belt is
for normal temperatures and
normal precipitation for the rest of
the crop year.
U.S. com sales to the U.S.S.R.
have been very strong. Grain sales
have surpassed 6 million tons. The
long term agreement calls for
Russia to purchase a minimum of 9
REAL ESTATE & HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT
William McKinley Stone Estate
291 ACRE DRYSTOCK FARM
Georgetown, N.Y.
We have been commissioned to offer the following equipment, *
household, and real estate at public auction. Vz mile off N.Y.S. •
Route 80 between Georgetown and Sheds on the Chapin Rd. •
From Rte. 26 between Georgetown & Otselic take Bronder 2
Hollow Rd. to Chapin Road. *
TRACT #1, 217 acres 70 plus tillable, with old style bank built barn with 29 2
stanchions, 3 horse stalls, water buckets, 28’x36’ addition, 14’x40’ CS silo. 9 •
room home with eat-in kitchen, dining room, living room, 4 bedrooms, 2
utility room, 1% baths. To be offered in parcels. House and barn with ap- •
proximately 5 acres; balance in 4 parcels and offered in combinations. Buy S
as little or as much as you desire. This farm has an extremely nice maple *
sugar bush and quantity of saleable timber. •
TRACT 12. 74 acres fronts on Chapman Road and on Muller Hill Road. •
Mostly tillable offered in 2 parcels. 2
TERMS ON REAL ESTATIS: $1,500 per parcel deposit at auction. 25% total •
down payment (deposit included) at closing within 30 days, owner will hold 2
balance as mortgage at 12% interest up to 20 years. 2
PERSONAL PROPERTY; IHC 544 Hydro, just like new, has 265 actual 2
hours; John Deere 55A-B-H 3 bottom plow; 16 hoe Ontario grain drill; Allis •
Chalmer 12’ transport disc; New Idea 7 trailer mower; New Idea crusher; 2
IHC 10-20 on rubber; 3 wagon running gears; 2 old thrashing machines; •
case chopper/blower; DeLaval milkers and pump; loose hay loader; 2 side 2
rakes; dump rake; drags; IHC grain/hay elevator; horse drawn spreader; •
wood trailer; stock tanks; 25 bundles of cedar shingles; buzz saw; milk •
cans; horse thills; poles; yokes; eveners; etc. 18” thickness planer; lots of 2
scrap iron; G.E. refrigerator; combination wood/gas kitchen stove; large •
Franklin stove; all of the household furnishings and tons and tons of 2
miscellaneous. *
NOTE; This has been over 50 years in the same family. They didn’t really 2
have a lot, but they never threw anything out. It will be a good old •
fashioned country auction. 2
TERMS ON PER SONAL PROPERTY; Cash or good check. 2
Personal property at 5:00 PM, Real Estate at 7:00 PM, then Equipment. 2
Lunch. Dress for weather. •
• RICHARD LOLLMAN Owner •
J C$L PARKER AUCTION & REALTY CO. I
1 Col. Hugh R. Parker. CAI RES I
• /tucrlA<nVt\ Auctioneer & Real Estate Broker ( !' *
• Wljßfe/ Box 101, South Otselic, New York \JjJ •
• 315-653-7777 •
2 “We sell the Earth and everything on it.” *
(800) 336-0241
million tons each year for 4 years
beginning October 1, 1983, with a
maximum of 12 million tons.
Hot dry weather persists in
Russia and could lower their crop
to 160 million tons which compares
to the recent USDA of 190 million
tons. This situation could force the
Russians to purchase their
maximum capacity of imports - 45
million tons of which 15 million
tons could be from U.S. sources.
In domestic grain news, one of
the causes for the recent rally was
the fear that a strike by the In
ternational Longshoremen’s
Assoc, could divert export ship
ments through the Gulf of Mexico.
This rumor caused short covering
in the futures market and the
September - December spread to
widen out to 17 cents. Now that the
situation is calmer, the spread has
gone back to 12 cents and is an
ticipated to eventually go to even
money before September goes off
the board.
The U.S. Customs Service has
recently proposed new
requirements regulating textile
imports. This could have a grave
effect on wheat exports between
TUESDAY NIGHT. AUGUST 21,1984
the U.S. and China. Analysts fear
that Chin% might use tWS squabble
as a reason to renege on its grain
agreement for this year.
China’s long term agreement
calls for purchasing no less than 6
million tons of grain each year
from 1981 to 1984. The agreement
was fulfilled in the first 2 years, but
China has only purchased 3.8
million tons this year and has
made commitments of only 4.3
million for next year.
As I have said before in this
article, the Chinese can reduce
their U.S. purchases so long as
they reduce purchases from other
countries proportionately. One
might assume that either this or
the textile issue would be sufficient
reason for the Chinese to refuse
further imports, especially since
they have just harvested their
second bumper crop in a row.
Chinese officials have vowed to
not only make up their 1983
shortfall, but also fulfill their 1984
commitments, but the trade is
becoming very suspicious of those
prospects.
Of note this week, the USDA has
received official comment on its
proposed feed grain program for
1985. The disparity in comments
shows how divided the agricultural
community is on the issue of
solving the long term over
production problems in the grain
industry. «
Cargill, the largest grain
company in the world and also the
largest privately owned company
in the world, favors a 2.30 per
bushel loan rate, which they say
would more accurately reflect the
world market value for corn and
would make the U.S. more com-
Lancaster Farming, Saturday, August 11,1984—A39
petitive. Cargill recognizes that a
2.30 loan rate could be very dif
ficult for producers, but suggested
a target price 3.30 which would
cause a 1.50 per bushel maximum
deficiency payments.
Clearly opposed to Cargill’s
market oriented solution, the
National Farmers Union called for
a 3.00 loan rate, a 3.25 target price,
a 12%% acreage reduction and a
7%% cash land diversion provision
with a reserve loan rate of 4.00 per
bushel for com. They also support
a 30 cent storage payment and a
trigger price of 5.00 for com. Such
a program would require massive
subsidies from the government
and would be very difficult to pass
in Congress given the recent at
tempts at deficit reductions.
LIVESTOCK
Analysts are expecting cash hog
prices to rally as high as 56.00 by
the end of August.
With estimated hog slaughter 7
to 10% below last year’s levels and
daily kills averaging between
250,000 and 290,000, the near term
prospects are very bullish.
Lebanon Fair results
Reserve Jr Champion Female
Christine Habecker
Jr 2 Year Old
1 Karen Heilmger
Senior Champion Female
Karen Heilmger
Grand Champion Female
Karen Heilmger
Reserve Grand Champion Female
Robert Smith
Produce of Dam
1 Karen Heilmger
Jersey Open
Intermediate Heifer Cell
1 Matthew Bushong
Senior Heifer Calf
1 Kenneth Heisey 2 Ellen Hanson 3 Andrew
Dice
Junior Yearling Heifer
1 Michelle Bushong 2 Dianne Kay Dice 3
Bryan Blatt
Intermediate Yearling Heifer
1 Melanie Bushong
, IT’S MAGIC '
How quickly V, V
j You Get Results \
V From Our ) i—— —/
JJ
PUBLIC SALE
Having rented farm and discontinuing farming the undersigned
will sell located north of Hagerstown, MD and south of Green
castle, PA off 1-81 on Pa. Exit if 1 Vz mile west on Rt. 163 first farm
on right.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 18,1984
10:30 A.M.
3 TRACTORS & MACHINERY
MF 265 diesel tractor wf, PS, 1400 hrs., runs and looks like new; MF 65
tractor, WF, PS; Massey Harris 101 Junior Tractor; MF 72 SP combine
w/10’ head; MF 82 trip back 316 plow; (2) 12’ disks; (2) 20 tooth frame
harrows; wooden drag; Int. 33 hay conditioner; NH 56 side rack; NH 68
Baler w/thrower; (2) Wagons w/hay sides, Farmette 36’ Elevator w/1 h.p.
motor; JD 494 4 row corn planter; JD 290 2 row com planter; N 13231 row,
PTO com picker good; Int. 16/7 Disk grain drill; 2 Gravity Wagons; Int. #5
Flail Chopper; NH 352 portable grinder mixer w/sheller; NI 213 PTO
manure spreader; Clipper seed cleaner; Platform scale; David Bradley
Hammer mill; 3 pt. Post Hole digger; cylinders; tractor chains; front
tractor weights.
FEEDERS, FEED, VET. SUPPLIES, ETC.
Smidley 12 hole, 2200 lb. hog feeder; Smidley 8 hole, 1,000 lb. hog feeder;
Smidley 4 hole, 400 lb. hog feeder; Trojan hog wash auto, cooling system;
(2) 16’ feeders made w/lMs” treated lumber; feed cart; heat lamps;
dehomers; syringes; pill gun; leads; bam tools; Approx. 1300 bales of
mixed hay, buy bale; Approx. 1500 bales of straw, buy bale.
HOUSEHOLD &MISC.
Happy cooking gas & wood code stove; wood air tight stove; oil burning
stove; butcher kettle; wooden barrel butter chum; charcoal grill, like
new; recliner; aluminum frame, wooden folding chairs; apple peeler, turf
master tiller, needs work; other useful articles.
Terms: Cash
Not responsible lor accidents
Owners;
CLARENCE & DOROTHY GROVE
717-597-3879
Auctioneer:
Robert C. Mullendore
However, with grain prices
expected to be cheaper in the fall,
one could expect aggressive
hedging in the hog futures market
if the price approached 56.00.
One of the things holding back
the live hog market has been the
overwhelming supply of frozen
pork products in storage. Some
traders are waiting for the August
pork belly contract to go off the
board before a major rally in the
nearby contracts can be expected.
Demand for pork products could
improve this fall after farmers
year end farrowing intentions are
established in the September Hogs
& Pigs Report. If intentions are
lower, retail demand would in
crease which would provide
support for the cash market.
Pork featuring by retailers has
continued sluggish and supplies
have been taken on a hand-to
mouth basis from the fresh
market. This is why the large
frozen stocks has continued to be a
black cloud over the market. Until
warehouse supplies are cleaned
up, one should not expect
aggressive buying by retailers.
(Continued from Page A2l)
Senior Yearling Heifer
1 Brenda Kay Dice
Junior Champion Female
Michelle Bushong
Reserve Jr Champion Female
Matthew Bushong
Jr 2-Year Old
1 Louise Landis 2 Edward Dice 3 Blue Ml
Jerseys
1 Bryan Blatt
4- Year-Old Dry Cow
1 Ellen Hanson 2 Bryan Blatt
1 Kenneth Heisey
Senior Champion Female
Kenneth Heisey
Reserve Sr Champion Female
EJien Hanson
Grand Champion Female
Kenneth Heisey
Reserve Grand Champion Female
Ellen Hanson
Udder Class
1 Kenneth Heisey 2 Louise Landis
PHONE
717-394-3047
or 717-626-1164
3 Year Old Cow
Aged Cow